Posted at 22 September 2023 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•US Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg. 217.00K,224.50K previous
•US Continuing Jobless Claims 1,662K, 1,695K forecast, 1,688K previous
•US Initial Jobless Claims 201K,225K forecast, 220K previous
•Canada Aug New Housing Price Index (MoM) 0.1%,0.0% forecast, -0.1% previous
•US Current Account (Q2) -212.1B,-221.0B forecast,-219.3B previous
• US Sep Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index -13.5,-0.7 forecast,12.0 previous
• US Sep Philly Fed Employment -5.7,-6.0 previous
• US Sep Philly Fed Prices Paid 25.70, 20.80 previous
• US Sep Philly Fed New Orders 25.70, 16.0 previous
• US Sep Philly Fed Business Conditions 25.70, 3.9 previous
• US Sep Philly Fed CAPEX Index 7.50, -4.50 previous
• US Aug Existing Home Sales 4.04M, 4.10M forecast, 4.07M previous
• US Aug Existing Home Sales (MoM) -0.7%, -2.2% previous
• US Aug US Leading Index (MoM) -0.4%, -0.5% forecast,-0.4% previous
• US 4-Week Bill Auction 5.280%,5.285% previous
• US 8-Week Bill Auction 5.300%, 5.295% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
•23:30 Japan Services PMI 54.3 previous
•23:30 Japan Sep Manufacturing PMI 49.9 forecast,49.6 previous
•01:00 New Zealand Net Debt Forecast 40.30% forecast,38.50% previous
•01:30 Australia Aug Reserve Assets Total 91.4B previous
•01:30 Japan Aug CPI, n.s.a (MoM) 0.5% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
•03:00 Japan BoJ Interest Rate Decision -0.10% forecast,-0.10% previous
•03:00 Japan BoJ Monetary Policy Statement
Currency Summaries
EUR/USD: The euro dipped on Thursday but recovered some lost ground dollar eased a day after the Federal Reserve signaled U.S. monetary policy will remain restrictive for longer. The Fed held interest rates steady at the 5.25%-5.50% range, in line with market expectations on Wednesday, but it signaled that its officials increasingly believe hawkish policy can succeed in lowering inflation without wrecking the economy or leading to large job losses. Along with another possible rate hike this year, the Fed's updated projections show significantly tighter rates through 2024 than previously expected. The U.S. dollar index , which measures the currency against a basket of rivals, was 0.10% lower at 105.33, after rising as high as 105.74, its strongest since March. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0663(Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0702(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0616(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0584(Lower BB).
GBP/USD: The pound fell to its lowest since March on Thursday after Bank of England on Thursday left interest rates unchanged, breaking a long run of rate rises. The Bank of England halted its long run of interest rate increases on Thursday as the British economy slowed, but it said it was not taking a recent fall in inflation for granted.A day after a surprise slowing in Britain's fast pace of price growth, the BoE's Monetary Policy Committee voted by a narrow margin of 5-4 to keep Bank Rate at 5.25%.Four members - Jon Cunliffe, Megan Greene, Jonathan Haskel and Catherine Mann - voted to raise rates to 5.5%.It was the first time since December 2021 that the BoE did not increase borrowing costs. The pound was 0.41 % lower at $ 1.22935 . Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2356(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2403(5DMA).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2245 (23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2221(Lower BB).
USD/CAD: The Canadian dollar weakened against its U.S. counterpart on Thursday but was holding up better than some other G10 currencies as the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance continued to spook investors. The Bank of Canada has also moved to the sidelines but says it could raise borrowing costs again should inflationary pressures persist. Canada’s record of declining productivity over the past three years is likely to make it more difficult for the Bank of Canada to tame inflation, raising the prospect of additional interest rate hikes even as the economy slows. Canadian retail sales data for July is due on Friday. Economists expect sales to rise 0.4% after a gain of 0.1% in June. The loonie was trading 0.1% lower at 1.3470 to the greenback, or 74.21 U.S. cents after trading in a range of 1.3452 to 1.3523. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3498 (9DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3531 (23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3451(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3374(50%fib).
USD/JPY: The dollar dipped against yen on Thursday as attention remained fixed on the possibility of the Japanese government intervening in foreign exchange markets to prop up the currency. Japan won't rule out any options in addressing excess volatility in currency markets, the government's top spokesperson said on Thursday. Chief Cabinet Secretary Hirokazu Matsuno said he hoped the Bank of Japan, holding a two-day policy meeting that ends on Friday, takes "appropriate" policy towards achieving its 2% inflation target. Matsuno's remarks echo those by top currency diplomat Masato Kanda, who told reporters on Wednesday the authorities won't rule out any options if excessive moves persist.Latest verbal intervention underscores policymakers concerns about a persistently weak yen, which inflates the cost of living for households through higher import bills and businesses that rely on imports of raw materials. Strong resistance can be seen at 148.55(23.6%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 148.98 ( Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen 147.63 (9DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 146.22(38.2%fib).
Equities Recap
European shares fell over 1% in a broad-based selloff on Thursday, pressured by rising bond yields as major central banks across the world hinted at keeping borrowing costs elevated for longer.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed up by 0.69 percent, Germany's Dax ended down by 1.33 percent, France’s CAC finished the day down by 1.58 percent.
Wall Street tanked in a broad sell-off on Thursday, as investor risk appetite was dashed by worries that the Federal Reserve's restrictive monetary policy will remain in place for longer than anticipated.
Dow Jones closed down by 1.08% percent, S&P 500 closed down by 1.64 % percent, Nasdaq settled down by 1.82% percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold extended its decline for a third consecutive on Thursday, weighed by the surge in the U.S. dollar and U.S. bond yields after the Federal Reserve hardened its hawkish posture on interest rates.
Spot gold shed 0.5% to $1,920.10 per ounce by 1149 GMT, having briefly touched its highest since Sept. 1 before closing lower in the previous session.U.S. gold futures eased 1.3% to $1,940.80.
Oil prices settled lower after choppy trading on Thursday, rising as much as $1 a barrel after a Russian ban on fuel exports snatched the focus from Western economic headwinds that had pushed prices down $1 a barrel early in the session.
Brent futures for November delivery settled down 23 cents to $93.30 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI) settled down 3 cents to $89.63. Both benchmarks had risen and fallen more than $1 earlier on Thursday.