Posted at 20 September 2023 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•UK Aug Core PPI Output (MoM) -0.1%, 0.1% previous
•UK Aug PPI Output (MoM) 0.2%, 0.1% forecast,0.1% previous
•UK Aug PPI Output (YoY) -0.4%, -0.6% forecast,-0.8% previous
•UK Aug Core PPI Output (YoY) 1.6% forecast, 2.3% previous
•UK Aug PPI Input (MoM) 0.4%, 0.2% forecast, -0.4% previous
•UK Aug RPI (YoY) 9.1% ,9.3% forecast, 9.0% previous
•UK Aug CPI (YoY) 6.7% ,7.0% forecast,6.8% previous
•UK Aug CPI (MoM) 0.3%,0.7% forecast,-0.4% previous
•German Aug PPI (MoM) 0.3%,0.2% forecast,-1.1% previous
•French Aug Car Registration (MoM) -11.9%, -32.4% previous
•French Aug French Car Registration (YoY) 24.3%, 19.9% previous
•German Aug Car Registration (MoM) 12.4%, -13.2% previous
•UK House Price Index (YoY) 0.6%,0.0% forecast, 1.7% previous
•EU Jul Construction Output (MoM) 0.80%,-0.97% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
•14:30 US EIA Weekly Refinery Utilization Rates (WoW) 0.6% previous
•14:30 US Gasoline Production-0.576M previous
•14:30 US Distillate Fuel Production -0.006M previous
•14:30 US Cushing Crude Oil Inventories -2.450M previous
•14:30 US Crude Oil Imports 2.654M previous
•14:30 US Crude Oil Inventories -2.200M forecast,3.954M previous
•14:30 US Gasoline Inventories 0.317M forecast,5.560M previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
•17:30 Canada BOC Summary of Deliberations
•18:00 US Fed Interest Rate Decision 5.50% forecast, 5.50% previous
•18:00 US Interest Rate Projection - 1st Yr (Q3) 4.6% previous
•18:00 US Interest Rate Projection - 2nd Yr (Q3) 3.4% previous
•18:00 US Interest Rate Projection - 3rd Yr (Q3) 3.1% previous
•18:00 US Interest Rate Projection - Longer (Q3) 2.5% previous
•18:00 US Interest Rate Projection - Current (Q3) 5.6% previous
•18:00 US FOMC Economic Projections
•18:30 US FOMC Press Conference
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: Euro strengthened against dollar on Wednesday as investors cautious ahead of the U.S. Federal Reserve's monetary policy decision due later in the day. Investors are awaiting the Fed's interest rate decision at 1800 GMT on Wednesday to assess the outlook for economic growth and fuel demand. The Fed is widely expected to keep interest rates on hold, but the focus will be on its projected policy path, which is unclear. Futures markets are pricing in a 30% likelihood of a quarter-point increase in November or 40% chance it will be in December, according to the CME FedWatch tool . The euro rose 0.24% to $1.0705. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0717(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0785(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0675(5DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0658(23.6%fib).
GBP/USD: The pound fell to its lowest since late May on Wednesday after data showed UK inflation slowed more than expected in August, softening the case for the Bank of England to raise rates much beyond current levels.British annual consumer price inflation (CPI) unexpectedly fell to 6.7% in August, official data showed on Wednesday, a day before the BoE is expected to raise rates again. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast CPI would rise to 7.0% from July's 6.8% after a jump in fuel prices and an increase in a tax on alcoholic drinks.Sterling was last down 0.2% on the day at $1.2363, compared with $1.2386 right ahead of the data. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2393(5DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2448(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2351 (23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2322(Lower BB).
USD/CHF: The U.S. dollar eased against Swiss franc on Wednesday as investors remained cautious ahead of the Federal Reserve’s policy decision, where the U.S. central bank is expected to stay put on interest rates, but prospects loom for further hikes later this year. The Fed’s rate-setting policy committee will release a new policy statement and interest rate decision at 1800 GMT, with Fed Chair Jerome Powell scheduled to hold a press conference at 1830 GMT. Futures markets are pricing in a 30% likelihood of a quarter-point increase in November or 35% chance it will be in December, according to CME FedWatch tool. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.8981 (23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.9008(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.8994(9DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 0.8915(38.2%fib).
USD/JPY: The dollar remained firm against yen on Wednesday ahead of a much-anticipated rate decision by the Federal Reserve later in the day. The Fed meeting leads a week jammed with central bank meetings and data over the next few days. British inflation figures are due on Wednesday, followed by central bank meetings in Sweden, Switzerland, Norway, Britain and Japan on Thursday. Futures pricing implies almost no chance of a Fed hike at 1800 GMT, but traders, who have begun winding back bets on cuts in 2024 and will be closely focused on the U.S. central bank’s economic projections and chair Jerome Powell’s news conference. Strong resistance can be seen at 148.03(23.66%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 148.50 ( Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen 146.41 (5DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 146.56(38.2%fib).
Equities Recap
European shares rose on Wednesday ahead of the U.S. Federal Reserve's policy decision, with British stocks outpacing regional peers as investors reeled in Bank of England rate hike bets on cooling UK inflation data.
At (GMT 13:10 ),UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading up at 0.82 percent, Germany's Dax down up by 0.74 percent, France’s CAC was up by 0.60 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold was little changed on Wednesday as investors braced for updated interest rate projections and remarks from Chair Jerome Powell following the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy meeting.
Spot gold was steady at $1,931.20 per ounce at 1127 GMT, holding below its highest level since Sept. 5 reached on Tuesday. U.S. gold futures eased 0.1% to $1,952.50.
Oil prices fell on Wednesday ahead of the U.S. Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, with investors uncertain when peak rates will be hit and how much of an impact it will have on energy demand.
U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures shed 0.79%, or 72 cents, to $90.48 a barrel. The October WTI contract expires on Wednesday and the more active November contract was down 73 cents, or 0.81%, to $89.75 a barrel at 1152 GMT.