Posted at 19 September 2023 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•EU Jul Current Account 20.9B, 30.2B forecast,35.8B previous
•EU Jul Current Account n.s.a. 26.9B, 36.8B previous
•EU Aug Core CPI (YoY) 5.3%,5.3% forecast,5.5% previous
•EU Sep CPI, n.s.a 124.03, 123.36 previous
•EU Aug CPI (MoM) 0.5%,0.6% forecast,-0.1% previous
•EU Aug CPI (YoY) 5.2%, 5.3% forecast,5.3%
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
• 12:30 Canada Aug Core CPI (MoM) 0.5% previous
• 12:30 Canada Aug Core CPI (YoY) 3.2% previous
• 12:30 Canada Aug Housing Starts (MoM) 3.9% previous
• 12:30 Canada Aug Common CPI (YoY) 4.8% forecast, 4.8% previous
• 12:30 Canada Aug CPI (YoY) 3.8% forecast,3.3% previous
• 12:30 Canada Aug Median CPI (YoY) 3.7% forecast,3.7% previous
• 12:30 Canada Aug Trimmed CPI (YoY) 3.5% forecast,3.6% previous
• 12:30 Canada Aug Housing Starts 1.440M forecast,1.452M previous
• 12:30 Canada Aug Building Permits 1.440M forecast,1.443M previous
• 12:30 Canada Aug Building Permits (MoM) 0.1% previous
• 12:30 Canada Aug CPI (MoM) 0.2% forecast,0.6% previous
• 12:55 US Redbook (YoY) 4.6% previous
• 15:00 New Zealand GlobalDairyTrade Price Index 2.7% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
•No significant events
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: Euro strengthened against dollar on Tuesday as investors cautiously awaited a slew of central bank decisions this week. Investors remained cautious ahead of interest rate decisions by major central banks this week, including the U.S. Federal Reserve on Wednesday and Bank of England, Swiss National Bank, Riksbank, and Norges Bank on Thursday. Euro zone inflation numbers for August will be also be closely watched later in the day, after the European Central Bank (ECB) hiked rates last week to a record level of 4%. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0717(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0785(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0687(5DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0640(23.6%fib).
GBP/USD: The pound held near three-month lows on Tuesday, ahead of a slew of central bank decisions, including that of the Bank of England later this week, which is expected to yield a final rate rise in the current cycle. The BoE meets on Thursday and money markets show traders widely expect to see one final quarter-point hike to 5.50%, but no realistic prospect of a rate cut until next summer.Inflation has fallen to 6.8% from a 41-year peak of 11.1% last October, but it is still the highest among major economies and progress in bringing it down has been far slower.Consumer inflation in the United States has fallen to 3.7% from last June's 9.1% rate, while in the euro zone, inflation is running at 5.3%, almost half last October's 10.7% reading. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2416(5DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2483(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2366 (23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2366(Lower BB).
USD/CHF: The U.S. dollar eased against Swiss franc on Tuesday as investors awaited the Federal Reserve's two-day policy meeting that begins later in the day . U.S. Federal Reserve officials, who have tentatively embraced the possibility they can squelch inflation without a recession, meet this week with an autoworkers strike, a possible federal government shutdown, and a student loan squeeze on consumers posing new risks to that best-case outcome. Money markets expect the Fed to keep rates on hold at its upcoming meeting, according to the CME FedWatch tool, though focus will be on the central bank's forward guidance. The U.S. dollar index hovered either side of unchanged at 105.04, holding near last week's six-month peak. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.8995 (23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.9008(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.8940(5DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 0.8933(38.2%fib).
USD/JPY: The dollar eased on Tuesday as investors awaited a series of key central bank policy meetings this week. The yen is drawing a lot of focus at the moment, as the BOJ prepares to meet to discuss monetary policy on Friday.It hit a 10-month low of 147.95 per dollar last week and by Tuesday, was not far off that mark, flat on the day at 147.63. The last time the yen was this weak was last autumn, when Japanese authorities intervened to prop it up.Expectations are for the BOJ to maintain its policy of ultra-low interest rates and reassure markets that monetary stimulus will stay in place, at least for now, even as Governor Kazuo Ueda stoked speculation of an imminent move away from the central bank's current policy stance.. Strong resistance can be seen at 148.03(23.66%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 148.50 ( Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen 146.41 (5DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 146.56(38.2%fib).
Equities Recap
European shares edged higher on Tuesday in choppy trading as cautious investors awaited a slew of central bank decisions this week, while Germany's DAX lagged regional peers as weakness in industrial stocks weighed.
At (GMT 12:10 ),UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading up at 0.07 percent, Germany's Dax down down by 0.16 b percent, France’s CAC was up by 0.21 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices hit a two-week high on Tuesday as the U.S. dollar eased from a six-month peak ahead of the start of the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting later in the day, with markets braced for a new set of economic forecasts from the central bank.
Spot gold was up 0.1% at $1,934.40 per ounce after hitting its highest since Sept. 5 earlier in the session. U.S. gold futures gained 0.2% to $1,957.
Oil prices rose on Tuesday for a fourth consecutive session as weak U.S. shale output spurred further concerns about a supply deficit stemming from extended production cuts by Saudi Arabia and Russia.
Global oil benchmark Brent crude futures were up 50 cents, or 0.53%, to $94.93 a barrel by 1116 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures were up 94 cents, or 1.03%, to $92.42 after breaching $1 gains.