Posted at 15 September 2023 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•France Aug CPI (MoM) 1.00%, 1.00%previous
•France Aug CPI (YoY) 4.90%,4.80%forecast,4.30% previous
•France Aug French HICP (YoY) 5.7%,5.7% forecast,5.1% previous
•France Aug Inflation (YoY) 4.80%,4.20% previous
•France Aug French HICP (MoM) 1.1%,1.1% forecast,1.0% previous
•French CPI (MoM) 1.0%,1.0% forecast,0.1% previous
•Italian Aug CPI (YoY) 5.4%,5.5% forecast,5.9% previous
•Italian Aug Italian CPI (MoM) 0.3%,0.4% forecast,0.0% previous
•Italian Aug Italian HICP (MoM) 0.2%,0.2% forecast-1.6% previous
•EU Wages in euro zone (YoY) (Q2) 4.60%, 4.60% previous
•EU Wages Trade Balance 6.5B, 23.0B previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•12:30 US Aug Export Price Index (MoM) 0.4% forecast, 0.7% previous
•12:30 US Aug Import Price Index (MoM) 0.3% forecast, 0.4% previous
•12:30 US Sep NY Empire State Manufacturing Index -10.00 forecast,-19.00 previous
•12:30 Canada Jul Foreign Securities Purchases 12.56B previous
•12:30 Canada Jul Foreign Securities Purchases by Canadians 14.44B previous
•12:30 Canada Jul Manufacturing Sales (MoM) 0.7% forecast, -1.7% previous
•12:30 Canada New Motor Vehicle Sales (MoM) 165.6K previous
•12:30 US Export Price Index (YoY) -7.9% previous
•12:30 US Import Price Index (YoY) -4.4% previous
•13:15 US Aug Industrial Production (YoY) -0.23% previous
•13:15 US Aug Manufacturing Production (MoM) 0.1% forecast,0.5% previous
•13:15 US Capacity Utilization Rate 79.3% forecast,79.3% previous
•13:15 US Aug Industrial Production (MoM ) 0.1% forecast, 1.0% previous
•14:00 US Sep Michigan Consumer Sentiment 69.1 forecast,69.5 previous
•14:00 US Sep Michigan Inflation Expectations 3.5% previous
•14:00 US Sep Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations 3.0% previous
•14:00 US Sep Michigan Consumer Expectations 66.0 forecast,65.5 previous
•14:00 US Sep Michigan Current Conditions 75.3 forecast,75.7 previous
•17:00 U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count 513 previous
•17:00 U.S. Baker Hughes Total Rig Count 632 previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
•No significant events
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: Euro edged higher against dollar on Friday buoyed by hopes that the European Central Bank is ending its rate rise cycle and data that suggested China's wobbly economy may be regaining some momentum. The European Central Bank (ECB) hiked its key interest rate to a record 4% on Thursday and warned it would stay at that level until above-target inflation was dealt with. Also bolstering European investors' risk appetite on Friday, data showed Chinese gauges of retail sales and industrial output for August topped economists' expectations, though its property slump deepened, threatening to undercut a flurry of support measures. The euro rose 0.2% to $1.066, as it clawed its way off an overnight trough of $1.0632, the lowest level since March 20.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0750(5DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0780(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0682(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0600(Psychological level).
GBP/USD: The pound rose against the dollar on Friday as the greenback slipped and as traders looked ahead to the Bank of England's interest rate decision next week. Sterling has been one of the best performing currencies this year, up 2.8% against the dollar since the start of January. But it has fallen since mid-July as the UK labour market has weakened and the dollar has rebounded on the back of a relatively strong U.S. economy. The Bank of England will set interest rates next week and pricing in derivatives markets shows traders think it highly likely that policymakers will increase borrowing costs by 25 basis points to 5.5%. Sterling was up 0.18% against the dollar at $1.2433.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2522(5DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2533(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2455 (23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2411(Lower BB).
USD/CHF: The U.S. dollar strengthened against Swiss franc on Friday as traders focussed on the Federal Reserve's guidance on interest rates next week. Data on Thursday showed U.S. producer prices increased by the most in more than a year last month while retail sales also beat expectations, boosted by a surge in gasoline prices.This comes after U.S. consumer prices in August increased by the most in 14 months, keeping bets alive for further U.S. rate hikes after a likely pause next week. Investors focus shifted to the U.S. central bank meeting due next week, in which the Fed is widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.8957 (23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.8975(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.8920(5DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 0.8894(38.2%fib).
USD/JPY: The dollar strengthened to hit 10-month high against Japanese yen on Friday as dollar continued its upward march against yen following U.S. economic data. U.S. data on Thursday showed producer prices increased by the most in more than a year in August and retail sales also rose more than expected. Traders are betting the Fed will leave its key interest rate unchanged at 5.25%-5.5% next week. But the possibility that the central bank will keep rates at that level for months to come as the economy avoids a long-predicted recession is dulling the allure of U.S. government bonds for now. Strong resistance can be seen at 147.81(23.66%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 148.43 ( Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen 147.23 (5DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 146.4000(38.2%fib).
Equities Recap
European shares extended their rally on Friday, on track to end the week higher, following a sharp jump in the previous session after the European Central Bank (ECB) signalled an end to its rate hike cycle.
At (GMT 12:10 ),UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading up at 0.85 percent, Germany's Dax was up by 1.10 percent, France’s CAC was up by 1.72 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold recovered from three-week lows on Friday aided by the dollar's retreat after better-than-expected Chinese data and a stronger euro, while traders focussed on the Federal Reserve's guidance on interest rates next week.
Spot gold was up 0.4% to $1,917.49 per ounce by 1031 GMT, after hitting its lowest since Aug.23 in the previous session. U.S. gold futures gained 0.3% to $1,939.
Oil was on track for a third weekly gain as supply tightness spearheaded by Saudi Arabian production cuts combines with optimism that the Chinese economy is finally turning a corner.
Oil prices were little changed at 1149 GMT. Brent crude futures gained 37 cents to $94.07 a barrel while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) was up 43 cents at $90.59.