Posted at 14 September 2023 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•Switzerland Aug PPI (MoM) -0.2%,0.1% forecast,-0.1% previous
•Switzerland Aug PPI (YoY) -0.8%,-0.6% previous
•Greek Quarterly Unemployment Rate (Q2)11.2%,11.8% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•12:30 US Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg. 229.25K previous
•12:30 US Continuing Jobless Claims 1,695K forecast,1,679K previous
•12:30 US Initial Jobless Claims 225K forecast,216K previous
•12:30 Canada Jul Wholesale Sales (MoM) 1.4% forecast,-2.8% previous
•12:30 US Retail Sales (YoY) 3.17% previous
•12:30 US Aug PPI ex. Food/Energy/Transport (YoY) 2.7% previous
•12:30 US Core PPI (MoM) 0.2% forecast,0.3% previous
•12:30 US Aug PPI (YoY) 1.2% forecast,0.8% previous
•12:30 US Aug PPI (MoM) 0.4% forecast,0.3% previous
•12:30 US Aug Core Retail Sales (MoM) 0.4% forecast,1.0% previous
•12:30 US Core PPI (YoY) 2.2% forecast,2.4% previous
•12:30 US Aug Retail Sales (MoM) 0.2% forecast,0.7% previous
•12:30 US Aug Retail Sales Ex Gas/Autos (MoM) 0.5% forecast,1.0% previous
•12:30 US Aug Retail Control (MoM) 1.0% previous
•12:30 US Aug PPI ex. Food/Energy/Transport (MoM) 0.2% previous
•14:00 US Jul Retail Inventories Ex Auto 0.1% previous
•14:00 US Jul Business Inventories (MoM) 0.1% forecast, 0.0% previous
•14:30 US Natural Gas Storage 48B forecast, 33B previous
•15:30 US 4-Week Bill Auction forecast,5.280% previous
•15:30 US 8-Week Bill Auction 5.290% previous
Looking Events And Other Releases(GMT)
•16:00 EU ECB's Enria Speaks
•14:00 ECB President Lagarde Speaks
EUR/USD: Euro dipped against dollar on Thursday as traders waited to see if the European Central Bank would raise rates, a day after U.S. inflation data failed to alter views for a Federal Reserve pause next week Expectations for the meeting are split between a pause and a 25 basis point rate increase, with market pricing leaning towards a hike, bolstered partly by a Reuters report that Europe's central bank expects inflation will stay above 3% next year in its updated forecasts, versus the 2% target. The ECB will also publish an updated set of economic forecasts, and the ECB’s views on how quickly inflation will fall will guide the market as to how much further tightening is likely.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0750(5DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0780(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0682(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0600(Psychological level).
GBP/USD: Sterling was a touch softer but held above this week's three-month lows against the dollar on Thursday, having recovered some ground after a selloff the previous session following weak UK economic data. An industry survey released earlier on Thursday showed British house prices had the most widespread falls in 14 years in August as demand weakened against the backdrop of elevated mortgage costs and economic uncertainty.This followed data on Wednesday showing the economy contracted by 0.5% in July, worse than expectations for a contraction of 0.2% and the largest drop in monthly output since December 2022. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2522(5DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2533(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2455 (23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2411(Lower BB).
USD/CHF: The U.S. dollar hovered around against Swiss franc on Thursday after U.S. inflation data failed to alter views for a Federal Reserve pause next week. The U.S. consumer price index (CPI) increased by 0.6% last month, the largest gain since June 2022, the Labor Department said on Wednesday. However, core inflation, which is of greater concern to the Fed as it strips out food and energy prices, ran at a 4.3% year-on-year rate in August from 4.7% the previous month.Traders remain almost certain the Fed will keep rates steady again on Sept. 20, according to money market pricing. Odds for a quarter point increase by year-end though, stand at about 40%. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.8957 (23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.8975(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.8920(5DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 0.8894(38.2%fib).
USD/JPY: The dollar was little changed against Japanese yen on Thursday as traders figured a small upside surprise for U.S. inflation was unlikely to push up interest rates. Overnight data showed higher fuel prices had lifted headline U.S. consumer prices by the most in 14 months in August, for an annual rate of 3.7% which was a touch above expectations. Core inflation slowed to an annual 4.3%, as expected. Fed funds futures hardly budged on the inflation data, and imply nearly no chance of a rate hike next week, and about a 45% chance of another hike by year’s end. Strong resistance can be seen at 147.81(23.66%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 148.43 ( Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen 147.23 (5DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 146.4000(38.2%fib).
Equities Recap
European shares inched higher on Thursday, with investors cautious ahead of the European Central Bank's rate decision where it is likely to raise interest rates for a tenth consecutive time.
At (GMT 12:10 ),UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading up at 0.88 percent, Germany's Dax was down by 0.14 percent, France’s CAC was up by 0.27 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold held its ground on Thursday near three-week lows ahead of an interest rate decision by the European Central Bank as well as U.S. economic data that could provide clues on the monetary policy outlook.
Spot gold rose 0.1% to $1,908.18 per ounce by 1121 GMT, after touching $1,904.93, its lowest since Aug. 25. U.S. gold futures fell 0.2% to $1,929.60.
Oil rebounded on Thursday, with Brent crude topping $93 a barrel for the first time this year, as expectations of a tighter supply outlook for the rest of 2023 overshadowed concerns over weaker economic growth and rising U.S. inventories.
Brent crude was up $1.20, or 1.3%, at $93.08 by 1100 GMT after touching $93.11 for its highest since November 2022. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI) gained $1.14, or 1.3%, to $89.66, having also hit a 10-month high.