Posted at 13 September 2023 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•UK Jul Manufacturing Production (MoM) -0.8%, -1.0% forecast, 2.4% previous
•UK Jul Construction Output (MoM) -0.5%,-0.5% forecast, 1.6% previous
•UK Jul Industrial Production (YoY) 0.4%, 0.5% forecast, 0.7% previous
•UK Jul Monthly GDP 3M/3M Change 0.2%,0.3% forecast, 0.2% previous
•UK Jul GDP (MoM) -0.5%, -0.2% forecast, 0.5% previous
• U.K. Jul Construction Output (YoY) (Jul)2.8%,2.9% forecast, 4.6% previous
• U.K. Jul GDP (YoY) 0.0%,0.4% forecast, 0.9% previous
• U.K. Jul Trade Balance -14.06B,-16.00B forecast,-15.46B previous
• U.K. Jul Manufacturing Production (YoY) 3.0%, 2.7% forecast, 3.1% previous
• U.K. Jul Trade Balance Non-EU -2.36B, -2.77B previous
• U.K. Jul Industrial Production (MoM) -0.7%,-0.6% forecast, 1.8% previous
• U.K Index of Services 0.1%,0.2% forecast, 0.1% previous
•EU Jul Industrial Production (MoM) -1.1%, -0.7% forecast, 0.5% previous
•EU Jul Industrial Production (YoY) -2.2%, -0.3% forecast, -1.2% previous
•US Aug CPI, n.s.a (MoM) 0.44%, 0.19% previous
•US Aug Real Earnings (MoM) -0.1%, 0.0% previous
•US Aug CPI Index, s.a 306.27, 304.35 previous
•US Aug Core CPI Index 309.66, 308.80 previous
•US Aug Core CPI (MoM) 0.3%,0.2% forecast, 0.2% previous
•US Aug CPI (YoY) 3.7% ,3.6% forecast, 3.2% previous
•US Aug CPI CPI Index, n.s.a. 307.03,306.98 forecast, 305.69 previous
•US Aug CPI (MoM) 0.6%, 0.6% forecast,0.2% previous
•US Aug Core CPI (YoY) 4.3%,4.3% forecast, 4.7% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
•14:00 US Crude Oil Inventories -1.912M forecast, -6.307M previous
•14:00 US Gasoline Production -0.217M previous
Looking Ahead Events and Other Releases (GMT)
•No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro dipped on Wednesday as traders were cautious ahead of an expected European Central Bank rate hike on Thursday. The ECB has lifted its deposit rate to 3.75% from minus 0.50 in a span of 14 months, the fastest pace of tightening on record, all in the hope that it would arrest runaway price growth. The ECB begins a two-day meeting on Wednesday, with persistently high inflation and rising recession fears pulling policymakers in opposing directions and keeping market expectations equally divided between a pause and another 25-basis-point hike. Current market pricing reflects nearly a 75% chance the central bank will raise rates by 25 basis points, up from around 40% on Monday.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0750(5DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0780(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0734(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0682(23.6%fib).
GBP/USD: The pound edged lower against the dollar on Wednesday as investors assessed an unexpectedly poor reading that signalled British economic output had contracted more than expected in July. British economic output contracted by a larger-than-expected 0.5% in July from June, data showed, worse than what economists had forecast in a Reuters poll that pointed to a 0.2% contraction in gross domestic product (GDP). The data underlined signs that the economy is weakening, perhaps by more than the Bank of England (BoE) had expected ahead of its policy meeting on September 22, where the central bank is expected to raise interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) to 5.5%.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2522(5DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2533(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2455 (23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2411(Lower BB).
USD/CHF: The dollar strengthened against the Swiss franc on Wednesday after U.S. economic data showed inflation picked up in August, although underlying inflation pressures rose modestly and could give the Federal Reserve cushion to keep interest rates on hold at its meeting next week.The consumer price index increased by 0.6% last month, the largest gain since June 2022, the Labor Department said on Wednesday amid a jump in gasoline prices. Excluding the volatile food and energy components, the CPI increased 0.3% as prices for used cars and trucks declined. The dollar index , which tracks the currency against a basket of rival currencies, was modestly higher but off earlier highs with a gain of 0.03% to 104.62. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.8957 (23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.8975(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.8920(5DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 0.8894(38.2%fib).
USD/JPY: The dollar strengthened against Japanese yen on Wednesday after US consumer prices data for August showed the biggest increase in more than a year, which could keep interest rates higher for longer and support the dollar. The U.S. consumer price index increased by 0.6% last month, the largest gain since June 2022, the Labor Department said on Wednesday. The CPI had risen by 0.2% for two straight months. Traders’ expectations for the Fed leaving interest rates remain unchanged at its Sept. 19-20 policy meeting only got stronger after the data, while pricing around a 44% chance of another hike before 2024, according to the CME FedWatch tool. Strong resistance can be seen at 147.81(23.66%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 148.43 ( Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen 147.23 (5DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 146.4000(38.2%fib).
Equities Recap
European shares fell on Wednesday as investors braced for a crucial European Central Bank's rate decision this week.
At (GMT 14:00 ),UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading up at 0.18 percent, Germany's Dax was down by 0.16 percent, France’s CAC was down by 0.12 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold steadied on Wednesday after retreating immediately following data showing an acceleration in U.S. consumer prices, on expectations that the inflation readings may not prompt a big change in the Federal Reserve’s interest rate strategy.
Spot gold was steady at $1,912.86 per ounce by 9:05 a.m. EDT (1305 GMT. U.S. gold futures were also steady at $1,935.40 per ounce.
il prices traded higher on Wednesday as expected tight crude supply for the rest of the year offset inflation concerns.
Benchmark Brent futures rose 40 cents, or 0.43%, to $92.46 a barrel by 1252 GMT while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude gained 41 cents, or 0.46%, to $89.25.