Posted at 11 September 2023 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•Italian Jul Industrial Production (YoY) -2.1%,-1.7% forecast, -0.8% previous
• Italian Jul Industrial Production (MoM) -0.7% ,-0.3% forecast,0.5% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•13:00 French 12-Month BTF Auction 3.609% previous
•13:00 French 3-Month BTF Auction 3.657% previous
•13:00 French 6-Month BTF Auction 3.657% previous
•15:00 US Consumer Inflation Expectations 3.5% previous
•15:30 US 3-Month Bill Auction 5.315% previous
•15:30 US 6-Month Bill Auction 5.300% previous
•17:00 US 3-Year Note Auction 4.398% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
•No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro dipped against dollar on Monday as investors looked forward to a crucial U.S. inflation reading as well as a monetary policy decision from the European Central Bank (ECB) later in the week for more cues on the direction of global interest rates. The European Central Bank will hold interest rates steady on Sept. 14, according to a majority of economists polled , but just under half expect one more hike this year to tame inflation. Investors will also closely monitor commentary from ECB officials through the week to cement bets on the central bank's interest rate trajectory. Euro gained 0.23% to $1.0725 against dollar. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0744(5DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0788(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0693(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0672(Lower BB).
GBP/USD: The pound strengthened on Monday, taking advantage of a hefty decline in the dollar against the Japanese yen that spilled into other currencies. The dollar bore the brunt of the rush into the yen, falling by the most in two months against the Japanese currency. Sterling was last up 0.4% against the dollar at $1.2521.The pound fell by almost 1% against the dollar last week, as a combination of stronger economic data and weaker investor confidence fuelled a push into the U.S. currency. The Bank of England meets next week to discuss monetary policy. Traders are attaching a 70% chance of a quarter-point rise in the Bank Rate to 5.50%.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2546(5DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2588(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2455 (23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2426(Lower BB).
USD/CHF: The dollar dipped against the Swiss franc on Monday as investors look forward to U.S. inflation data that could sway the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates later in the year. That data could make traders revise their bets on whether the Fed has further to go in raising rates, with the CME FedWatch tool currently showing a 42% chance of a hike before 2024. The greenback, along with U.S. Treasury yields, had surged last week after a run of resilient economic data added to bets that further rate hikes from the Fed may be on the horizon. The dollar index , which measures the U.S. currency against peers, was last down 0.1% to 104.74, after sliding to an almost one-week low. Last week, it capped eight straight weeks of gains. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.8936 (23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.8955(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.8844(5DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 0.8865(38.2%fib).
USD/JPY: The dollar declined sharply against Japanese yen on Monday as comments from Bank of Japan (BOJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda stoked hopes that Japan could soon herald a new era away from negative rates. Ueda told the Yomiuri newspaper in an interview that the BOJ could have enough data by the end of the year to determine whether it can end negative rates.The yen has come under pressure against the dollar as a result of growing interest rate differentials with the United States since the Federal Reserve began its aggressive rate-hike cycle last year while the BOJ remains a dovish outlier. The Japanese currency was last 0.67% stronger at 146.85 per dollar. It had earlier surged more than 1% to 145.91, its highest since Sept 1. Strong resistance can be seen at 146.82(9DMA) an upside break can trigger rise towards 147.43 ( 23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen 145.83 (38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 145.00(Psychological level).
Equities Recap
European shares hit a one-week high on Monday, buoyed by data indicating signs of stabilisation in the Chinese economy, while traders braced for a busy week with the crucial U.S. inflation print and European Central Bank (ECB) policy meeting in focus.
At (GMT 12:10 ),UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading up at 0.10 percent, Germany's Dax was up by 0.43 percent, France’s CAC was up by 0.41 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold rose on Monday, heading for its best session in nearly two weeks as the dollar retreated before this week’s key U.S. inflation reading that could influence the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision later this month.
Spot gold climbed 0.4% to $1,924.60 per ounce by 1002 GMT, while U.S. gold futures rose 0.3% to $1,949.20.
Oil prices edged lower on Monday after fresh Saudi and Russian crude output cuts had driven prices to 10-month highs last week.
Brent crude fell by 23 cents, or 0.25%, to $90.42 a barrel by 1051 GMT on Monday while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude lost 46 cents, or 0.53%, to $87.05.