Posted at 08 September 2023 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•Canada Aug Participation Rate 65.5%,65.6% previous
•Canada Aug Employment Change 39.9K,15.0K forecast,-6.4K previous
•Canada Aug Unemployment Rate 5.5% , 5.6%forecast,5.5% previous
•Canada Aug Full Employment Change 32.2K,1.7K previous
•Canada Capacity Utilization Rate (Q2) 81.4%,82.5% forecast, 81.9% previous
•Canada Aug Avg hourly wages Permanent employee 5.2%,5.0% previous
•Canada Aug Part Time Employment Change 7.8K,-8.1K previous
•US Jul Wholesale Trade Sales (MoM) 0.8%, -0.2% forecast,-0.7% previous
•US Jul Wholesale Inventories (MoM) --0.2%,0.1% forecast, -0.5% previous
• U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count 513, 512 previous
•U.S. Baker Hughes Total Rig Count 632,631 previous
•US Jul Consumer Credit 10.40B,16.00B forecast, 17.85B previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
• 01:30 China Aug PPI (YoY) -3.1% forecast, -4.4% previous
• 01:30 China Aug CPI (YoY) 0.1% forecast,-0.3% previous
• 01:30 China Aug CPI (MoM) 0.2% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
•No Events Ahead
Currency Summaries
EUR/USD: The euro dipped against dollar on Friday as investors grew nervous over the trajectory of U.S. interest rates and the outlook for the European economy. Despite the weak data, inflation concerns and hawkish remarks from the European Central Bank (ECB) policymakers have led money markets to increase their bets on a further rate hike in next week's policy decision. Traders have priced in an around 40% chance of a 25-basis-point (bps) hike, up from 20% last week.U.S. inflation numbers are also due next week ahead of the Federal Reserve's policy meeting later this month, with policymakers widely seen holding interest rates unchanged. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0744(5DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0788(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0693(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0672(Lower BB).
GBP/USD: Sterling held near three months low on Friday against dollar on Friday after a survey signalled slower hiring activity last month, raising the probability that the Bank of England will press the pause button in its efforts to rein in inflation. Employers concerned about the economic outlook reduced hiring via recruitment agencies last month at the fastest pace in more than three years, an industry survey showed. Investors also took comfort from a BoE survey on Thursday showing businesses were planning for their lowest price rises since February 2022, offering some reassurance to policymakers that inflation is on course to return to target.Traders are betting on a 25% chance that the central bank will hold rates steady later this month. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2546(5DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2588(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2455 (23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2426(Lower BB).
USD/CAD: The Canadian dollar strengthened against its U.S. counterpart on Friday, as stronger-than-expected domestic jobs data kept alive prospects of another rate hike by the Bank of Canada after the central bank moved to the sidelines earlier in the week. Canada's economy added 39,900 jobs in August, more than twice estimates for a gain of 15,000, and the unemployment rate remained at 5.5%, a sign of underlying economic strength despite high interest rates. Money markets see a 44% chance of another BoC rate hike by year-end, up from 36% before the data. The loonie was trading 0.4% higher at 1.3625 to the greenback, after moving in a range of 1.3609 to 1.3689 .Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3699 (23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3725 (3Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3637 (5DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3603 (38.2%fib).
USD/JPY: The dollar strengthened against Japanese yen on Friday a traders looked beyond a widely expected pause by the Federal Reserve this month to focus on robust U.S. data out this week. Strong U.S. economic data this week have left some investors worried that even if the Federal Reserve leaves rates unchanged this month, they could remain high for longer than anticipated. Investors are waiting for the U.S. Consumer Price Index reading for August, due Wednesday, especially with oil prices rising. The dollar index's weekly winning streak was its longest since 2014, bolstered by recent data suggesting the U.S. economy is still resilient. For the day, the index was nearly flat at 105.08. The Japanese yen was last at about 147.82 per dollar. Strong resistance can be seen at 147.96(23.6%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 148.36 ( Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen 147.08(5DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 146.47(38.2%fib).
Equities Recap
Early gains in European stocks faded on Friday, with the benchmark STOXX 600 heading for its eighth consecutive session of losses as investors grew nervous over the trajectory of U.S. interest rates and the outlook for the European economy.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed down by 0.49 percent, Germany's Dax ended up by 0.14 percent, France’s CAC finished the day up by 0. 62 percent.
The S&P 500 closed slightly higher on Friday but well below its session high and all three of Wall Street's major averages posted weekly declines as investors worried about interest rates and waited anxiously for upcoming U.S. inflation readings.
Dow Jones closed up by 0.22 percent, S&P 500 ended up by 0.14 percent, Nasdaq finished the day up by 0.09 percent.
Treasuries Recap
U.S. Treasury yields were mostly lower on Friday, after comments from a bevy of Federal Reserve officials pointed towards a pause in the central bank's rate hike cycle, but yields were still poised for a weekly gain.
10-year Treasury notes , seen as an indicator of economic expectations, was at a negative 72.4 basis points.
The two-year U.S. Treasury yield, which typically moves in step with interest rate expectations, fell 1 basis point to 4.949%.
Commodities Recap
Gold firmed on Friday as the dollar came off six-month highs but bullion was still en route to a weekly fall as traders looked beyond a widely expected pause by the Federal Reserve this month to focus on robust U.S. data out this week.
Spot gold was up 0.3% to $1,924.30 per ounce by 0740 GMT, but was set for a 0.7% weekly fall. U.S. gold futures rose 0.3% to $1,948.30.
Oil prices gained almost 1% to a nine-month high on Friday on rising U.S. diesel futures and worries about tight oil supplies after Saudi Arabia and Russia extended supply cuts this week.
Brent futures rose 73 cents, or 0.8%, to settle at $90.65 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose 64 cents, or 0.7%, to settle at $87.51.