Posted at 08 September 2023 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•Sweden Jul GDP (MoM) 0.5%, -1.4% previous
•Sweden Jul Household Confidence (YoY) 0.40%, -1.70% previous
•Sweden Jul Household Confidence (MoM) 0.50%,-0.10% previous
•German Aug CPI (YoY) 6.1%,6.1% forecast,6.2% previous
•German Aug HICP (YoY) 6.4%, 6.4% forecast,6.5% previous
•German Aug CPI (MoM) 0.3%, 0.3% forecast,0.3% previous
•German Aug German HICP (MoM) 0.4%,0.4% forecast, 0.5% previous
•French Jul Industrial Production (MoM) 0.8%,0.1% forecast, -0.9% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•12:30 Canada Aug Participation Rate 65.6% previous
•12:30 Canada Aug Employment Change 15.0K forecast,-6.4K previous
•12:30 Canada Aug Unemployment Rate 5.6% forecast,5.5% previous
•12:30 Canada Aug Full Employment Change 1.7K previous
•12:30 Canada Capacity Utilization Rate (Q2) 82.5% forecast, 81.9% previous
•12:30 Canada Aug Avg hourly wages Permanent employee 5.0% previous
•12:30 Canada Aug Part Time Employment Change -8.1K previous
•14:00 US Jul Wholesale Trade Sales (MoM) -0.2% forecast,-0.7% previous
•14:00 US Jul Wholesale Inventories (MoM) -0.1% forecast, -0.5% previous
•17:00 U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count 512 previous
•17:00 U.S. Baker Hughes Total Rig Count 631 previous
•19:00 US Jul Consumer Credit 16.00B 17.85B previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
•1 3:00 US Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Barr Speaks
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro held near three monthl ow against dollar on Friday prospect of elevated U.S. interest rates kept bearish pressure on euro. An uptick in services sector activity in the U.S, lower filing of jobless claims during the week, along with dim economic data across Europe and Britain had boosted the safe-haven U.S currency to a near six-month high. The euro, the largest component in the dollar index, was staring at eight straight weeks of losses, with the single currency last gaining 0.19% to stand at $1.0714, after having fallen to a three-month low of $1.0686 on Thursday.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0744(5DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0788(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0697(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0672(Lower BB).
GBP/USD: Sterling held near three months low on Thursday against dollar on Friday after a survey signalled slower hiring activity last month, raising the probability that the Bank of England will press the pause button in its efforts to rein in inflation. Employers concerned about the economic outlook reduced hiring via recruitment agencies last month at the fastest pace in more than three years, an industry survey showed. Investors also took comfort from a BoE survey on Thursday showing businesses were planning for their lowest price rises since February 2022, offering some reassurance to policymakers that inflation is on course to return to target.Traders are betting on a 25% chance that the central bank will hold rates steady later this month. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2546(5DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2588(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2455 (23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2426(Lower BB).
USD/CHF: The dollar eased slightly against the Swiss franc on Friday as investors digested recent strong U.S. economic data, including a drop in jobless claims. Markets priced in an around 93% chance of the Fed keeping rates unchanged at its Sept. 19-20 meeting, but bet on 45% odds of one more hike before 2024, according to the CME FedWatch tool. Three Fed officials on Thursday suggested the Fed could skip a rate hike in September but maintained that there was more work to be done to curb inflation. The dollar index , which measures the strength of the greenback against six major rivals pulled back to trade at 104.88 at 0425 GMT, not far from its previous high of 105.15 .Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.8936 (23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.8955(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.8844(5DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 0.8865(38.2%fib).
USD/JPY: The dollar edged lower against Japanese yen on Friday as investors were cautious about intervention by Japanese authorities to support the weak yen. Japan's top currency diplomat Masato Kanda said on Wednesday that authorities won't rule out any option to clamp down on speculative currency moves, in a warning against a sell-off in the yen. Japanese Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki said on Friday that rapid currency moves were undesirable and that authorities wouldn’t rule out any options against excessive swings, in a fresh warning to investors trying to sell the yen. The Bank of Japan is the only major central bank yet to raise interest rates in the current global tightening cycle, although analysts expect a move could come this year. Strong resistance can be seen at 147.96(23.6%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 148.36 ( Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen 147.08(5DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 146.47(38.2%fib).
Equities Recap
European stocks edged higher on Friday, as investors snapped up battered luxury and technology shares after a plethora of concerns including the prospect of elevated U.S. interest rates and slowing European economy roiled sentiment this week.
At (GMT 12:10 ),UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading up at 0.05 percent, Germany's Dax was down by 0.20 percent, France’s CAC was up by 0.17 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold firmed on Friday as the dollar came off six-month highs but bullion was still en route to a weekly fall on chances of one more U.S. interest rate hikes this year.
Spot gold was up 0.2% to $1,923.63 per ounce by 1037 GMT, but was set for a 0.8% weekly fall. U.S. gold futures rose 0.3% to $1,947.60.
Oil prices hovered above $90 a barrel on Friday, on track to end the week higher as investors chose to focus on tighter supply, despite broader macroeconomic uncertainty.
Both oil benchmarks hit 10-month highs this week after Riyadh and Moscow extended their voluntary supply cuts of a combined 1.3 million barrels per day (bpd) to the end of the year.