Posted at 07 September 2023 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•Swiss Aug Unemployment Rate s.a. 2.1%, 2.1% forecast, 2.1% previous
•Swiss Aug Unemployment Rate n.s.a. 2.0% forecast, 1.9% previous
•German Jul Industrial Production (YoY) -2.25% forecast, -1.83% previous
•UK Aug Halifax House Price Index (MoM) -1.9%, -0.3% forecast,-0.3% previous
•UK Aug Halifax House Price Index (YoY) -4.6%,-3.5% forecast, -2.4% previous
• French Jul Exports 52.6B, 52.1B previous
• French Jul Imports 60.7B, 58.8B previous
•Italian Jul Retail Sales (YoY) 2.7%, 3.6% previous
•Italian Jul Retail Sales (MoM) 0.4%,0.2% forecast,-0.2% previous
•EU GDP (QoQ) (Q2) 0.1%,0.3% forecast,0.0% previous
•EU Employment Change (YoY) (Q2)1.3%,1.5% forecast,1.6% previous
•EU Employment Overall (Q2) 166,745.3K,166,745.3K forecast,166,745.3K previous
•EU Employment Change (QoQ) (Q2) 0.2%, 0.2% forecast, 0.6% previous
• EU GDP (YoY) 0.5%,0.6% forecast, 1.1% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•12:30 Canada Jul Building Permits (MoM) -5.0% forecast, 6.1% previous
•12:30 US Nonfarm Productivity (QoQ) (Q2) 3.7% forecast, -2.1% previous
•12:30 US Unit Labor Costs (QoQ) (Q2) 1.6% forecast, 4.2% previous
•12:30 US Initial Jobless Claims 234K forecast, 228K previous
•12:30 Canada Jul Building Permits (MoM) -5.0% forecast, 6.1% previous
•12:30 US Nonfarm Productivity (QoQ) (Q2) 3.7% forecast, -2.1% previous
•12:30 US Unit Labor Costs (QoQ) (Q2) 1.6% forecast, 4.2% previous
•12:30 US Initial Jobless Claims 234K forecast, 228K previous
•12:30 US Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg. 237.50K previous
•12:30 US Continuing Jobless Claims 1,715K forecast, 1,725K previous
•12:30 Canada Aug Ivey PMI n.s.a 45.2 previous
•14:00 Canada Aug Ivey PMI 49.2 forecast, 48.6 previous
•14:30 US Natural Gas Storage 43B forecast, 32B previous
•15:00 US Distillate Fuel Production -0.043M previous
•15:00 US Gasoline Production 0.290M previous
•15:00 US Gasoline Inventories -0.950M forecast, -0.214M previous
•15:00 US Cushing Crude Oil Inventories -1.504M previous
•15:00 US Crude Oil Inventories -2.064M forecast,-10.584M previous
•20:30 US Reserve Balances with Federal Reserve Banks 3.196T previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
•19:30 US FOMC Member Williams Speaks
•19:45 US FOMC Member Bostic Speaks
•20:55 US FOMC Member Bowman Speaks
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro dipped on Thursday as the single currency attracted sellers on inflation fears and after comments from European Central Bank’s policymakers. ECB policy hawks Peter Kazimir and Klaas Knot said on Wednesday, just hours before the bank goes into a week-long quiet period, the ECB should raise rates and that investors betting against an ECB rate increase are possibly underestimating the likelihood of it happening. Investors have adjusted their positioning before next week’s ECB meeting, with markets increasing their bets on a 25 basis points (bps) rate hike but still pricing less than a 50% chance.. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0744(5DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0788(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0697(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0672(Lower BB).
GBP/USD: Sterling declined against dollar on Thursday after stronger-than-expected U.S. economic data rekindled concerns that interest rates would stay higher for longer . The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) said its rose in August, with new orders firming and businesses paying higher prices for inputs . Market pricing shows a more than 40% chance that the Fed will deliver another rate hike in November, according to the CME FedWatch tool, though expectations are for policymakers to keep rates on hold later this month. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2546(5DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2588(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2455 (23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2426(Lower BB).
USD/CHF: The dollar strengthened against the Swiss franc on Thursday after data showed the U.S. services sector unexpectedly gained steam in August. Blistering-hot Institute for Supply Management (ISM) figures on Wednesday, at their strongest level since February, bolstered bets that the Federal Reserve could lift interest rates again before the end of the year. Investors will keep an eye out for U.S. initial jobless claims data due at 08:30 a.m. EDT (1230 GMT) for more clarity on labour market conditions. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.8936 (23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.8955(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.8844(5DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 0.8865(38.2%fib).
USD/JPY: The dollar edged lower against Japanese yen on Thursday as investors were cautious after Japan’s top currency diplomat gave his strongest warning about intervention to support the weak yen. Japan's top currency diplomat Masato Kanda said on Wednesday that authorities won't rule out any option to clamp down on speculative currency moves, in a warning against a sell-off in the yen. Wednesday’s remarks were the strongest since August, when the Japanese currency slid past the key threshold of 145 per dollar. Since then, authorities have stopped firing warning shots, keeping traders guessing on Japan's intervention strategy. Strong resistance can be seen at 147.96(23.6%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 148.36 ( Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen 147.08(5DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 146.47(38.2%fib).
Equities Recap
European shares inched higher on Thursday after a six-day losing run, with defensive healthcare and utilities in the lead, as investors grappled with the prospect of U.S. interest rates staying elevated and a sharply slowing European economy.
At (GMT 12:20 ),UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading up at 0.22 percent, Germany's Dax was down by 0.21 percent, France’s CAC was up by 0.07 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices inched higher on Thursday, as a slight pullback in Treasury yields offered some respite from a robust dollar, while investors looked forward to more U.S. economic data to gauge the outlook for interest rates.
Spot gold was up 0.1% at $1,918.64 per ounce by 0906 GMT, after hitting a one-week low on Wednesday. U.S. gold futures were little changed at $1,943
Oil prices eased on Thursday as an uncertain economic outlook for China outweighed expectations of tighter supplies from extended supply cuts in Saudi Arabia and Russia.
Brent crude futures fell 42 cents, or 0.5%, to $90.18 a barrel by 1029 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI) futures fell 52 cents, or 0.6% to $87.02.