Posted at 06 September 2023 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•German Jul Factory Orders (MoM) -11.7%,-4.0%forecast,7.0% previous
•Finnish Jul Trade Balance -0.61B,-0.22B previous
•EU Aug M2 Money Supply (MoM) 43.4,43.5 previous
• German Aug IHS S&P Global Construction PMI 41.5 forecast, 41.0 previous
•UK Aug Construction PMI 50.8, 50.5 forecast, 51.7 previous
•EU Jul Retail Sales (YoY)-1.0%, -1.2% forecast, -1.4% previous
•EU Jul Retail Sales (MoM) -0.2% ,-0.1% forecast, -0.3% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•12:15 Canada Aug Reserve Assets Total 114,512.0B previous
•12:30 Canada Labor Productivity (QoQ) (Q2) -0.1% forecast, -0.6% previous
•12:30 US Imports 313.00B previous
•12:30 US Exports 247.50B previous
•12:30 US Jul Trade Balance -68.00B forecast,-65.50B previous
•12:30 Canada Jul Trade Balance -3.65B forecast,-3.73B previous
•12:30 Canada Jul Imports 64.43B previous
•12:30 Canada Jul Exports 60.70B previous
•12:55 US Redbook (YoY) 4.2% previous
•13:45 US Aug S&P Global Composite PMI 50.4 forecast,52.0 previous
•13:45 US Aug Services PMI 51.0 forecast,52.3 previous
•14:00 US Aug ISM Non-Manufacturing Employment 50.7 previous
•14:00 US Aug ISM Non-Manufacturing New Orders 55.0 previous
•14:00 US Aug ISM Non-Manufacturing Prices 56.8 previous
•14:00 US Aug ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI 52.5 forecast,52.7 previous
•14:00 US Aug ISM Non-Manufacturing Business Activity 57.1 previous
•12:30 Canada BoC Interest Rate Decision 5.00% forecast, 5.00% previous
•14:00 US IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism 41.1 forecast,40.3 previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
•14:00 Canada BoC Rate Statement
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro held near recent low against dollar on Wednesday as faltering growth in China and Europe heightened concerns about broader economic momentum, as investors weighed up the outlook for Federal Reserve interest rates. German industrial orders fell more than expected in July, pulling back after a sharp gain in the aerospace sector the previous month, the federal statistics office said on Wednesday.Incoming orders fell by 11.7% on the previous month on a seasonally and calendar adjusted basis. A poll of analysts had pointed to a drop of 4.0%. Investors are digesting recent signals on potential U.S. interest rate rises. Fed Governor Christopher Waller said on Tuesday that the latest round of economic data was giving the U.S. central bank space to see if it needs to hike again. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0822(38.2%fib)), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0822 (11DMA).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0734(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0704(Lower BB).
GBP/USD: Sterling held near a three-month low against dollar on Wednesday as global growth jitters, high energy prices, and higher U.S. yields remained supportive of the greenback. The British currency’s decline was in line with broader moves. The dollar index, which tracks the unit against six major peers including the pound, rose 0.65% on Tuesday - its biggest daily gain since March - on the back of data showing weak Chinese and European economies versus a comparatively resilient United States, and higher oil prices. The pound was the best performing major developed market currency against the dollar in the first half of the year, with better than feared British economic data and sticky inflation driving expectations that the Bank of England would keep raising rates longer than most other peers. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2652(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2676(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2535 (23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2496(Lower BB).
USD/CHF: The dollar strengthened against the Swiss franc on Wednesday as expectations for U.S. interest rates to stay elevated for longer and worries about China’s economy boosted dollar. Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said on Tuesday the latest round of economic data was giving the U.S. central bank space to see if it needs to raise interest rates again.Markets were all but certain that the Fed will keep rates unchanged at its Sept. 19-20 meeting, but still bet on a 42% chance of a rate hike before 2024, according to CME FedWatch tool. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.8899(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.88912(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.8830(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.8806(5DMA).
USD/JPY: The dollar weakened against Japanese yen on Wednesday after Japan’s top currency diplomat gave his strongest warning since mid-August about intervention to support the weak yen. Japan's top currency diplomat Masato Kanda said on Wednesday that authorities won't rule out any option to clamp down on speculative currency moves, in a warning against a sell-off in the yen. Tokyo's top spokesperson Hirokazu Matsuno made similar comments later in the day, saying the government would take appropriate steps against excessive foreign exchange volatility without excluding any option.Japanese authorities last intervened to support the yen in October last year, when they used phrases such as deeply concerned and pledged to take decisive steps in the run-up to intervention. Yen stood at 147.37 per dollar . Strong resistance can be seen at 147.40(23.6%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 147.70 ( Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen 146.36 (5DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 146.04(38.2%fib).
Equities Recap
European stocks extended losses for a sixth consecutive session on Wednesday as worries about global economic slowdown and higher crude prices spurring inflationary pressures weighed on risk sentiment.
At (GMT 12:30 ),UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading down at 0.56 percent, Germany's Dax was down by 0.56 percent, France’s CAC was down by 1.00 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold languished near one-week lows on Wednesday on strength in the dollar and Treasury yields, driven by expectations for U.S. interest rates to stay elevated for longer and worries about China’s economy.
Spot gold was flat at $1,926.30 per ounce by 1209 GMT, after hitting its lowest since Aug. 29 earlier in the session. U.S. gold futures were little changed at $1,952.40.
Oil prices reversed course on Wednesday after rising over 1% in the previous session, on a firmer dollar and as investors shrugged off jitters arising from supply cuts from Saudi Arabia and Russia.
Brent crude futures were down by 59 cents to $89.45 a barrel at 1145 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI) futures traded at $86.21 a barrel, down 48 cents.