Posted at 05 September 2023 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•Italian Aug Composite PMI 48.2, 48.9 previous
•Italian Aug Services PMI 49.8, 50.2 forecast, 51.5 previous
•French Aug S&P Global Composite PMI 46.0, 46.6 forecast,46.6 previous
•French Aug Services PMI 46.0, 46.7 forecast,47.1 previous
•German Aug Composite PMI 44.6, 44.7 forecast,48.5 previous
•German Aug Services PMI 47.3, 47.3 forecast,52.3 previous
•EU Aug Services PMI 47.9,48.3 forecast,50.9 previous
• EU Aug S&P Global Composite PMI 46.7,47.0 forecast,48.6 previous
•UK Aug Composite PMI 48.6,47.9 forecast,50.8 previous
•UK Aug Services PMI 49.5,48.7 forecast,51.5 previous
•EU Jul PPI (YoY) -7.6%, -7.6% forecast, -3.4% previous
• EU Jul PPI (MoM) -0.5%,-0.6% forecast,-0.4% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
•14:00 US IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism 41.1 forecast,40.3 previous
•14:00 US Aug CB Employment Trends Index 115.45 previous
•14:00 US Jul Factory Orders (MoM) -2.5% forecast,2.3% previous
•14:00 US Jul Durables Excluding Transport (MoM) 0.5% previous
•14:00 US Jul Durables Excluding Defense (MoM) -5.4% previous
•14:00 US Jul Factory orders ex transportation (MoM) 0.2% previous
•15:00 GlobalDairyTrade Price Index -7.4% previous
•15:30 US 3-Month Bill Auction 5.340% previous
•15:30 US 6-Month Bill Auction 5.350% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
•14:30 ECB's De Guindos Speaks
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro declined against dollar on Monday as weak services sector data from China and the euro zone fuelled concerns about slowing global growth. China-exposed sectors such as luxury and construction & materials were among the top drags in Europe as data showed China's services activity expanded at the slowest pace in eight months in August.Meanwhile, the decline in euro zone business activity accelerated faster than initially thought last month as the dominant services industry fell into contraction, according to a survey which suggests the bloc could fall into a recession. The euro was down 0.45% at 1.0747. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0822(38.2%fib)), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0822 (11DMA).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0734(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0704(Lower BB).
GBP/USD: The pound falls to 12-week low against dollar on Tuesday after data showed after a survey showed business activity in Britain contracted last month.The UK S&P Global/CIPS composite Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) dropped to 48.6 in August from 50.8 in July, the lowest since January, although it was revised up from an earlier estimate of 47.9. The services sector PMI printed at 49.5, below the half century mark that separates growth from contraction. Sterling was last up 0.3% at $1.26265 on Monday. Markets are pricing in another hike after that to 5.75% by early next year even as other major central banks, such as the U.S. Federal Reserve and European Central Bank, appear close to the end of their respective tightening cycles. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2652(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2676(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2535 (23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2496(Lower BB).
USD/CHF: The dollar stood firm against the Swiss franc on Tuesday as traders looked for more cues on the U.S. Federal Reserve’s policy path after a widely expected interest rate pause this month. Recent U.S. economic data has backed bets of a soft landing scenario as worries about inflation and recession have somewhat eased, cemented expectations that the Fed might not have to raise interest rates further. Fed officials are expected to speak during the week, ahead of the Sept. 19-20 policy meeting.According to the CME FedWatch tool, traders see a 93% chance of the Fed leaving rates unchanged at the meeting this month and about 60% chance that the rates would remain at current levels rest of the year. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.8899(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.88912(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.8830(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.8806(5DMA).
USD/JPY: The dollar strengthened against Japanese yen on Tuesday as investors awaited more cues on the health of the U.S. economy ahead of the Federal Reserve's meeting this month amid rising expectations for a pause in interest rate hikes. Data on Friday showed U.S. job growth picked up in August, but the unemployment rate jumped to 3.8%, while wage gains moderated. The slight cracks in the labour market bolstered expectations that the Fed is likely done hiking rates.Markets are pricing in a 93% chance of the Fed keeping rates unchanged later this month. The dollar index, which measures the U.S. currency against six rivals, to its highest since March at 104.75.The Japanese yen weakened 0.5% to 147.33 per dollar. Strong resistance can be seen at 147.37(23.6%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 147.70 ( Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen 146.36 (5DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 146.04(38.2%fib).
Equities Recap
European shares fell to one-week lows on Tuesday, with economically sensitive sectors leading the selloff as weak services sector data from China and the euro zone fuelled concerns about slowing global growth.
At (GMT 12:30 ),UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading up at 0.17 percent, Germany's Dax was down by 0.06 percent, France’s CAC was down by 0.08 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold slipped to a one-week low on Tuesday as investors sought the U.S. dollar after weak data in China, although rising expectations for a pause in interest rate increases by the U.S. Federal Reserve limited losses.
Spot gold declined 0.4% to $1,930.33 per ounce by 1126 GMT, eyeing its biggest daily drop since mid-August. U.S. gold futures fell 0.6% to $1,955.80.
Oil prices dipped on Tuesday as fresh data added to gloom over the state of China's post-pandemic recovery, although expectations of an extension in supply cuts by leading OPEC+ producers limited losses.
By 0933 GMT, Brent crude futures for November were down 51 cents at $88.49 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI) October futures edged 14 cents lower to $85.41 a barrel.