Posted at 04 September 2023 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•French 12-Month BTF Auction 3.609%,3.631% previous
•French 3-Month BTF Auction 3.657%,3.664% previous
•French 6-Month BTF Auction 3.657%, 3.671% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•01:00 New Zealand ANZ Commodity Price Index (MoM) -2.6% previous
•01:30 Australia Net Exports Contribution (Q2) -0.2% previous
•01:30 Australia Current Account (Q2) 8.1B forecast, 12.3B previous
•01:30 Australia Retail Sales (MoM) 0.5% forecast, -0.8% previous
•01:45 Chinese Composite PMI 51.3 previous
•01:45 Chinese Aug Caixin Services PMI 53.6 forecast,54.1 previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
•No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro rose against the safe-haven dollar on Monday as risk sentiment improved on hopes China's policy stimulus might stabilise the economy. China stepped up measures to boost the country's faltering economy, with Beijing planning further action including relaxing home-purchase restrictions. The euro was untouched by European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde comments saying that central banks must pin inflation expectations at their targets at a time when changes in labour and energy markets as well as geopolitical turmoil are causing price swings.The China-sensitive euro was up 0.25% at $1.0799, just off a 10-week low touched last week against the dollar. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0845(5DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0864(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0773(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0728(Lower BB).
GBP/USD: The pound rose on Monday, but remained in sight of August’s two-month lows, as traders continued to weigh up the outlook for sterling, which analysts think could be at risk for more weakness over the course of this month. Revised official data on Friday showed the UK economy surpassed its pre-COVID-19 size in the final quarter of 2021, a much earlier recovery from the pandemic than previously estimated and ahead of other big European countries. Money markets show traders believe the Bank of England has at least one, if not two, more rate hikes in the pipeline.The chances of a quarter-point rise when the BoE meets on Sept. 21 are nearly 90%, with another rate hike almost guaranteed in November. Sterling was last up 0.3% at $1.26265 on Monday.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2649(5DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2670(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2580 (38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2543(Lower BB).
USD/CAD: The Canadian dollar edged lower against its U.S. counterpart on Monday as holiday-thinned trade kept price action muted for the Canadian dollar. The U.S. and Canadian markets were closed on Monday and liquidity was thin, while traders were hesitant to place large bets. Oil traded near seven-month highs on tightening supply as Saudi Arabia was widely expected to extend voluntary oil production cuts into October.Brent crude futures rose 0.2% to $88.75 a barrel, as did U.S. futures , reaching $85.73. The dollar , against a basket of currencies, inched 0.15% lower to 104.08, but remained close to the two-month peak of 104.44 it touched on Aug. 25. The loonie was last trading 0.04% lower at 1.3595 to the greenback .Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3616 (23.6% fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3646 (23.6% fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3562(5DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3537 (38.2%fib).
USD/JPY: The dollar strengthened against Japanese yen on Monday as traders kept an eye out for any signs of intervention to shore up the ailing currency. Japanese officials have rarely escalated verbal warnings since last month against speculators trying to sell off the yen. The weak yen has driven up import bills for fuel and foods, depriving households of purchasing power and prompting Prime Minister Fumio Kashia to scramble for measures to subsidise gasoline retail prices and to mitigate rises in utility bills. The BOJ remains an outlier among global central banks with its loose monetary policy, even as it slowly shifts away from yield curve control. Strong resistance can be seen at 146.60(23.6%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 147.17( Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen 146.05 (5DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 145.30(38.2%fib).
Equities Recap
European shares edged lower on Monday as gains driven by optimism around China's stimulus measures to revitalise its economy fizzled out, while Danish drugmaker Novo Nordisk's shares touched record highs.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed down by 0.16 percent, Germany's Dax ended up down by 0.10 percent, France’s CAC finished the day down by 0.24 percent.
Wall Street was closed on account of Labor Day
Commodities Recap
Gold prices held steady in a thin holiday trade on Monday, buoyed by a slight pullback in the U.S. dollar as market participants grew more confident the Federal Reserve may have finished raising interest rates.
Spot gold was little changed at $1,939.61 per ounce by 9:52 a.m. EDT (1352 GMT), after climbing to a one-month high of $1,952.79 on Friday.
U.S. gold futures fell 0.1% to $1,965.70. Most of the U.S. markets are closed for the Labor Day holiday.
Oil prices edged higher on Monday on expectations that OPEC+ would keep supplies tight and speculation that the U.S. Federal Reserve will cease its aggressive interest rate hike campaign.
Brent crude futures for November crept 45 cents higher to settle at $89.00 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI) October futures rose 40 cents to $85.95.