Posted at 02 September 2023 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•U.S. unemployment rate rises, wage growth cools
•Russia promises to unveil new OPEC+ supply cut deal next week
•US oil rigs unchanged -Baker Hughes
•US Aug Private Nonfarm Payrolls 179K,150K forecast,172K previous
•US Aug Manufacturing Payrolls 16K,0K forecast,-2K previous
•US Aug Nonfarm Payrolls 187K, 170K forecast, 187K previous
•US Aug Government Payrolls 8.0K,-2.0K forecast,15.0K previous
•US Aug Average Weekly Hours 34.4,34.3 forecast,34.3 previous
•US Aug Unemployment Rate 3.8%,3.5% forecast,3.5% previous
•US Aug Average Hourly Earnings (YoY) (YoY) 4.3%,4.4% forecast,4.4% previous
•Canada Jun GDP (MoM) -0.2%, -0.2% forecast,0.3% previous
•US Aug Participation Rate 62.8%,62.6% forecast,62.6% previous
•US Aug U6 Unemployment Rate 7.1%, 6.8% forecast,6.7% previous
•Canada GDP (MoM) 0.0%, -0.2% previous
•Canada Aug Manufacturing PMI 48.0, 49.2 forecast, 49.6 previous
•US Aug Manufacturing PMI 47.9, 47.0 forecast,49.0 previous
•US Jul Construction Spending (MoM) 0.7%, 0.5% forecast, 0.5% previous
•US Aug ISM Manufacturing PMI 47.6,47.0 forecast,46.4 previous
•US Aug ISM Manufacturing Prices 48.4, 43.9 forecast,42.6 previous
•US Aug ISM Manufacturing New Orders Index 46.8, 47.3 previous
•US Aug ISM Manufacturing Employment 48.5,44.2 forecast, 44.4 previous
•U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count 512, 512 previous
•U.S. Baker Hughes Total Rig Count 631, 632 previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•No Data Ahead
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
• No Significant Events Ahead
Currency Summaries
EUR/USD: The euro declined on Friday as dollar rose after the August jobs report showed a still strong labor market, despite some signs of deterioration. Employers added 187,000 jobs in August, above expectations for a 170,000 gain. But data for July was revised lower to show 157,000 jobs added instead of the previously reported 187,000.The unemployment rate rose to 3.8%, above the expected 3.5%. Average hourly earnings rose by 4.3% for the year, below expectations for a 4.4% gain. The dollar index was last up 0.58% at 104.23. It is up 0.08% on the week, overcoming price drops earlier in the week caused by softening economic data.The euro fell 0.59% to $1.0773 Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0847(5DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0859 (38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0763(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0740(Lower BB).
GBP/USD: The British pound declined against dollar on Friday after the much-anticipated U.S. August employment report showed an uptick in unemployment and cooler-than-expected wage growth, cementing expectations that the Federal Reserve will let key interest rates stand at its September policy meeting. The Labor Department's payrolls report showed the U.S. economy added more jobs than expected last month, but the rising unemployment and participation rates, along with a welcome cool-down in average hourly wage growth, solidified expectations that the Fed will let key interest rates stand this month. Fed funds futures traders are now pricing in a 93% likelihood that the Federal Reserve will leave rates unchanged at its September meeting and see only a 36% chance of a hike in November, according to the CME Group's FedWatch Tool. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2644(5DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2688(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2577(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2538 (Lower BB).
USD/CAD: The Canadian dollar on Friday weakened by the most in one month against its U.S. counterpart as investors slashed bets on another Bank of Canada interest rate hike after data showed the domestic economy unexpectedly contracting in the second quarter. Canadian GDP declined at an annualized rate of 0.2% in the second quarter and growth was most likely flat in July, a signal to the central bank that interest rates are high enough. Analysts had forecast second-quarter growth of 1.2%.Separate data showed that the contraction in Canada's manufacturing sector gathered pace in August.The loonie was trading 0.6% lower at 1.3595 to the U.S. dollar, or 73.56 U.S. cents, its biggest decline since Aug. 1. The move nearly wiped out the currency's weekly gain, which was left at 0.1%..Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3606 (23.6% fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3637 (Aug 28th high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3556(5DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3520 (38.2%fib).
USD/JPY: The dollar rebounded from early dip on Friday following a mixed US jobs report for August.The Labor Department on Friday reported that U.S. nonfarm payrolls increased by 187,000 jobs last month. The number for July was revised lower to show 157,000 jobs added instead of the previously reported 187,000. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast nonfarm payrolls increasing by 170,000 jobs in August.The unemployment rate increased to 3.8% as more people entered the labor force, up from 3.5% in July but still below the Fed's latest median estimate of 4.1% by the fourth quarter of this year. Wage growth eased a bit. Average hourly earnings rose 0.2% after increasing 0.4% in July. In the 12 months through August, wages advanced 4.3% after increasing 4.4% through July. Strong resistance can be seen at 146.22(38.2%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 147.48( Aug 29th high).On the downside, immediate support is seen 144.448(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 143.03(61.8%fib ).
Equities Recap
European stocks steadied, ending the session flat as a decline in luxury and auto shares was offset by gains in mining and healthcare. The STOXX 600 posted its biggest weekly gain since mid-July.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed up by 0.34 percent, Germany's Dax ended down by 0.67 percent, France’s CAC finished the day down by 0.27 percent.
U.S. stock indexes settled for a mixed close after a U.S. jobs report showed an uptick in unemployment, cementing expectations that the Federal Reserve will let interest rates stand at its September meeting.
Dow Jones closed up by 0.33 percent, S&P 500 closed up by 0.18 percent, Nasdaq settled down by 0.02 % percent.
Treasuries Recap
U.S. Treasury yields rose on Friday, reversing earlier declines following a mixed jobs report for August, as investors pared positions ahead of the long holiday weekend.
Benchmark 10-year notes last fell 23/32 in price to yield 4.1788%, from 4.091% late on Thursday.
The 30-year bond last fell 48/32 in price to yield 4.2945%, from 4.204% late on Thursday.
Commodities Recap
Gold trimmed initial gains on Friday, but was still headed for a weekly rise after an increase in the U.S. unemployment rate boosted bets of a pause in the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hikes.
Spot gold was up 0.1% at $1,940.94 per ounce by 1:49 p.m. EDT (1749 GMT), after rising as much as 0.6% earlier in the session. It was poised for a 1.4% weekly gain after prices touched one-month highs on Wednesday.U.S. gold futures for December delivery settled 0.1% higher at $1,967.10.
Oil prices rose on Friday to their highest in over half a year and snapped a two-week losing streak, buoyed by expectations of tightening supplies.
Brent crude settled up $1.66, or 1.9%, at $88.49 a barrel. Earlier it gained to a session high of $88.75 a barrel, the highest since Jan. 27.
U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI) had risen $1.39, roughly 1.7%, to $85.02. It rose earlier to $85.81, the highest since Nov. 16.