Posted at 01 September 2023 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•UK Nationwide HPI (MoM)-0.8%, -0.3% forecast,-0.2% previous
•UK Nationwide HPI (YoY) -5.3%, -3.9% forecast,-3.8% previous
•Swiss Aug CPI (MoM) 0.2%,0.2% forecast,-0.1% previous
•Italian Aug Manufacturing PMI 45.4,46.0 forecast, 44.5 previous
•French Aug Manufacturing PMI 46.0,46.4 forecast, 45.1 previous
•German Aug Manufacturing PMI 39.1,39.1 forecast, 38.8 previous
•UK Aug Manufacturing PMI 43.0, 42.5 forecast, 45.3 previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•12:30 Canada GDP (QoQ) (Q2) 0.3% forecast, 0.8% previous
•12:30 Canada GDP Implicit Price (QoQ) (Q2) 1.50% forecast,0.20% previous
•12:30 Canada GDP Annualized (QoQ) (Q2) 1.2% forecast,3.1% previous
•12:30 US Aug Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) 0.3% forecast, 0.4% previous
•12:30 Canada GDP (YoY) (Q2) 2.21% previous
•12:30 US Aug Private Nonfarm Payrolls 150K forecast, 172K previous
•12:30 US Aug Manufacturing Payrolls 0K forecast, -2K previous
•12:30 US Aug Nonfarm Payrolls 170K forecast,187K previous
•12:30 US Aug Government Payrolls -2.0K forecast, 15.0K previous
•12:30 US Aug Average Weekly Hours 34.3 forecast, 34.4 previous
•12:30 US Aug Unemployment Rate 3.5% forecast,3.5% previous
•12:30 US Aug Average Hourly Earnings (YoY) (YoY) 4.4% forecast, 4.4% previous
•12:30 Canada Jun GDP (MoM) -0.2% forecast, 0.3% previous
•12:30 US Aug Participation Rate 62.6% forecast, 62.6% previous
•12:30 US Aug U6 Unemployment Rate 6.8% forecast, 6.7% previous
•13:30 Canada Aug Manufacturing PMI 49.2 forecast, 49.6 previous
• 13:45 US Aug Manufacturing PMI 47.0 forecast,49.0 previous
•14:00 US Jul Construction Spending (MoM) 0.5% forecast,0.5% previous
•14:00 US Aug ISM Manufacturing PMI 47.0 forecast,46.4 previous
•14:00 US Aug ISM Manufacturing Prices 43.9 forecast,42.6 previous
•14:00 US ISM Manufacturing New Orders Index 47.3 previous
•14:00 US Aug ISM Manufacturing Employment 44.2 forecast,44.4 previous
•17:00 U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count 512 previous
•17:00 U.S. Baker Hughes Total Rig Count 632 previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
•No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro declined against dollar on Friday as inflation data failed to settle the debate on the European Central Bank's September rate decision, and as investors assessed a less hawkish stance by rate setter Isabel Schnabel. ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos and policymaker Francois Villeroy de Galhau said the decision on whether to further tighten monetary policy was still open for debate. ECB’s Boris Vujcic, seen as a hawk, underlined that a resilient labour market continues to produce quick wage growth.Money markets are pricing an around 30% chance of a 25 bps hike this month, from 60% right after the release of inflation data from the German state North Rhine-Westphalia on Wednesday. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0862(5DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0880(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0792(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0751(Lower BB).
GBP/USD: The British pound edged lower on Friday as data showed that previous interest rate rises are beginning to weigh on housing and manufacturing, but official figures showed the economy fared better than previously thought through the COVID-19 pandemic. British factories suffered their weakest month since early in the COVID-19 pandemic, the S&P Global/CIPS UK manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index showed on Friday, with orders shrinking dramatically due to the rise in interest rates. At 1026 GMT, sterling was last flat against the dollar at $1.2674, within its recent month-long trading range of $1.2548-$1.28175. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2727(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2812(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2646 (50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2572(61.8%fib).
USD/CHF: The dollar edged higher against the Swiss franc on Friday as investors awaited U.S. jobs data later for clues on whether the Federal Reserve will raise rates this month. Traders have pared bets for a Fed rate hike on Sept. 20 to 12% from 18% a week ago according to the CME Group's FedWatch tool. The U.S. dollar index - which measures the currency against a basket of six developed-market peers, including the euro, sterling and yen - edged 0.05% lower to 103.58 on Friday, bringing declines this week to 0.53%. Dollar was up 0.33% against Swiss franc at 0.8813 at 10:38 GMT .Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.8829 (Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.8868(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.8767 (50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.8745(Aug 30th low).
USD/JPY: The dollar dipped on Friday as investors awaited U.S. jobs report that is likely to shape the path for Federal Reserve policy over the near term. The U.S. non-farm payrolls (NFP) report is due at 1230 GMT, which comes after data earlier this week showed job openings hit a 2-1/2-year low in July and the economy grew at a slightly less brisk pace than anticipated in the second quarter. Economists polled by Reuters expect 170,000 more workers on non-farm payrolls in August as a flurry of recent employment-related data has suggested the labour market is starting to slow. Strong resistance can be seen at 146.98(23.6%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 147.73( Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen 145.25 (Daily low), a break below could take the pair towards 145.03(21DMA).
Equities Recap
European shares recouped early losses to edge higher on Friday, as energy and mining stocks tracked firmer commodity prices, while German miner Aurubis slumped following a profit warning.
At (GMT 12:10 ),UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading up at 0.56 percent, Germany's Dax was down by 0.11 percent, France’s CAC was up by 0.24 percent.
Commodities Recap
Oil benchmark Brent hovered above $87 a barrel as crude prices looked set to set to snap a two-week losing streak on Friday, bouyed by expectations of tightening supplies.
At 1020 GMT Brent crude was up 98 cents, or about 1.1%, at $87.81 a barrel. WTI had risen 95 cents, also about 1.1%, to $84.58.
Gold prices firmed on Friday as investors braced for U.S. jobs data that could confirm the economy’s recent cooling trend and reduced rate hike expectations that have set gold on track for its second straight week of gains.
Spot gold climbed 0.2% to $1,943.80 per ounce by 1008 GMT and was poised for a 1.5% weekly gain after prices touched one-month highs on Wednesday. U.S. gold futures were up 0.2% at $1,970.40.