Posted at 01 September 2023 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•US Jul Real Personal Consumption (MoM) 0.6% , 0.0% forecast,0.4% previous
•US Jul PCE price index (MoM) 0.2%, 0.2% forecast, 0.2% previous
•US Jul PCE Price index (YoY) 3.3%,3.3% forecast, 3.0% previous
•US Jul Personal Spending (MoM) 0.8%,0.7% forecast,0.5% previous
•US Jul Core PCE Price Index (MoM) 0.2%, 0.2% forecast,0.2% previous
•Canada Current Account (Q2) -6.6B,-11.2B forecast,-6.2B previous
•US Jul Core PCE Price Index (YoY) 4.2%, 4.2% forecast, 4.1% previous
•US Jul Personal Income (MoM) 0.2%,0.3% forecast,0.3% previous
•Canada Jun Average Weekly Earnings (YoY) 3.6, 3.6 previous
•US Initial Jobless Claims 228K, 235K forecast,230K previous
•US Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg. 237.50K, 235.51K forecast,236.75K previous
•US Continuing Jobless Claims 1,725K, 1,703K forecast,1,702K previous
•US Aug Chicago PMI 48.7, 44.1 forecast,42.8 previous
•US Jul Dallas Fed PCE 2.40%, 3.90% forecast,2.50% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•01:30 Australia Home Loans (MoM) -1.0% forecast,-2.8% previous
•01:30 Australia Invest Housing Finance (MoM) 2.6% previous
•02:00 China Aug Caixin Manufacturing PMI 49.3 forecast, 49.2 previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
•No Events Ahead
Currency Summaries
EUR/USD: The euro ebbed on Thursday after ECB rate-setter Isabel Schnabel - considered one of the most hawkish members at the ECB - said euro zone growth was weaker than predicted, but that does not necessarily void the need for more rate hikes. Data on Thursday showed that Euro zone inflation held steady this month, but underlying price growth fell as expected, a mixed picture that complicates life for the ECB as it weighs the merits of a pause in rate hikes in the face of a visible slowdown in growth. Meanwhile, German unemployment rose more than expected in August. Money markets are now pricing in a 69% probability that the ECB will leave rates unchanged at its September meeting.The euro was last down 0.71% at $1.0846.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0823(5DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0841(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0762(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0751(Lower BB).
GBP/USD: The pound dipped against dollar on Thursday after comments by Bank of England Chief Economist Huw Pill. BoE Chief Economist Huw Pill said on Thursday Bank of England will see the job through on bringing high inflation back down to its 2% target even if there is a risk that high interest rates hurt Britain's economy In a speech that sought to underscore this month's message from the BoE's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), Pill said borrowing costs should probably stay high to quash stubbornly high core inflation, rather than fall quickly. Pill said there was a risk that the increases in borrowing costs hurt Britain's economy, which some economists think is on the cusp of a recession. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2747(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2797(Aug 22nd high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2645 (50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2576(61.8%fib).
USD/CAD: The Canadian dollar edged higher against its U.S. counterpart on Thursday but the currency was still down sharply in August as a slowdown in China’s economy pressured commodity-linked currencies. China’s manufacturing activity contracted for a fifth straight month in August, an official factory survey showed, fuelling concerns about weakness in the world’s second-biggest economy. Canada’s second-quarter GDP report is due on Friday, and is likely to show a sharp slowdown in economic growth. The price of oil settled on Thursday 2.5% higher at $83.63 a barrel. Oil is one of Canada’s major exports. The loonie was trading 0.1% higher at 1.3515 to the greenback, or 73.99 U.S. cents, after moving in a range of 1.3505 to 1.3557. For the month, the currency lost 2.4%, its biggest monthly decline since February. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3541(5DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3561 (23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3499 (38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3440 (50%fib).
USD/JPY: The dollar dipped on Thursday after U.S. data showed a mixed picture of the American economy. U.S. consumer spending increased by the most in six months in July, with an 0.8% increase, but slowing inflation strengthened expectations that the Federal Reserve would keep interest rates unchanged next month.The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index rose 0.2% last month, matching June’s gain. It comes after a string of data this week, including a drop in job openings to the lowest level in nearly 2-1/2 years in July, raised concerns that the economy is slowing. Friday’s jobs report for August will be scoured for any confirmation that the labor market is weakening. Strong resistance can be seen at 145.88(5DMA) an upside break can trigger rise towards 146.98( 23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen 145.00 (38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 143.16(50%fib).
Equities Recap
European shares were flat on Thursday as declines in consumer staples and luxury stocks outweighed gains in real estate and financials including UBS, while a raft of economic data gave a mixed picture of the euro zone.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed down by 0.46 percent, Germany's Dax ended up down by 0.35 percent, France’s CAC finished the day down by 0.67 percent.
The S&P 500 ended lower and the Nasdaq higher on Thursday after U.S. inflation data matched estimates, underscoring expectations the Federal Reserve could pause its monetary tightening, while Salesforce climbed following an up upbeat forecast.
Dow Jones closed down by 0.48 percent, S&P 500 ended down by 0.16 percent, Nasdaq finished the day up by 0.11 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold steadied on Thursday, hovering near its one-month peak, after as-expected U.S. inflation and weaker jobs numbers reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates on hold this year.
Spot gold edged down 0.1% to $1,940.23 per ounce at 1:51 p.m. EDT (1751 GMT), close to its highest since Aug. 2, at $1,948.79, hit on Wednesday.
U.S. crude oil prices gained more than $2 a barrel on Thursday, rising for a third month in row, on expectations that cuts by the OPEC+ group of oil producing nations, led by Saudi Arabia, would continue through the end of 2023.
Brent crude futures for October expired up $1, or 1.2%, at $86.86 a barrel. The more active November contract gained $1.59, or 1% at $86.83.
U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures (WTI) for October settled at $83.63 a barrel, up $2, or 2.5%.