Posted at 31 August 2023 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•German Jul Retail Sales (MoM) -0.8%, 0.3%forecast, -0.8% previous
•German Jul German Retail Sales (YoY) -2.2%,-1.0% forecast, -1.6% previous
•Swiss Jul Retail Sales (YoY) -2.2%, 1.8% previous
•French Jul Consumer Spending (MoM) 0.3%, 0.3% forecast, 0.9% previous
• French GDP (QoQ) (Q2) 0.5%, 0.5% forecast, 0.1% previous
•French HICP (MoM) 1.1%, 0.9% forecast, 0.0% previous
•French HICP (YoY) 5.7%, 5.4% forecast, 5.1% previous
•French Aug CPI (MoM) 1.0%,0.8% forecast, 0.1% previous
•French GDP (YoY) 0.9% ,0.9% forecast, 0.8% previous
•German Aug Unemployment Rate 5.7%,5.7% forecast,5.6% previous
• German Aug)Unemployment n.s.a. 2.700M,2.649M forecast,2.617M previous
•German Aug Unemployment 2.630M,2.621M forecast,2.604M previous
•German Aug German Unemployment Change 18K,10K forecast,-4K previous
•EU Aug CPI (YoY) 5.3% ,5.1% forecast, 5.3% previous
•EU Jul Unemployment Rate 6.4%, 6.4% forecast, 6.4% previous
•EU Aug HICP ex Energy & Food (YoY) 6.2%,6.5% forecast, 6.6% previous
•Italian Aug CPI (MoM) 0.4%,0.1% forecast,0.0% previous
•EU Core CPI (YoY) 5.3%, 5.3% forecast, 5.5% previous
•EU HICP ex Energy and Food (MoM)0.3%, 0.0% previous
• EU Core CPI (MoM)0.3%,0.3% forecast,-0.1% previous
• EU CPI (MoM) 0.6%,0.4% forecast, -0.1% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•12:30 US Jul Real Personal Consumption (MoM) 0.0% forecast,0.4% previous
•12:30 US Jul PCE price index (MoM) 0.2% forecast, 0.2% previous
•12:30 US Jul PCE Price index (YoY) 3.3% forecast, 3.0% previous
•12:30 US Jul Personal Spending (MoM) 0.7% forecast,0.5% previous
•12:30 US Jul Core PCE Price Index (MoM) 0.2% forecast,0.2% previous
•12:30 CanadaCurrent Account (Q2)-11.2B forecast,-6.2B previous
•12:30 US Jul Core PCE Price Index (YoY) 4.2% forecast, 4.1% previous
•12:30 US Jul Personal Income (MoM) 0.3% forecast,0.3% previous
•12:30 Canada Jun Average Weekly Earnings (YoY) 3.6 previous
•12:30 US Initial Jobless Claims 235K forecast,230K previous
•12:30 US Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg.235.51K forecast,236.75K previous
•12:30 US Continuing Jobless Claims 1,703K forecast,1,702K previous
•13:45 US Aug Chicago PMI 44.1 forecast,42.8 previous
•14:00 US Jul Dallas Fed PCE 3.90% forecast,2.50% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
•11:30 ECB Publishes Account of Monetary Policy Meeting
•13:00 US Fed Collins Speaks
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro edged back on Thursday after comments from German policymaker Isabel Schnabel failed to give firm clues on whether the European Central Bank will raise rates in September. ECB rate-setter Schnabel said that euro zone growth was weaker than predicted but that does not necessarily void the need for more rate hikes. Traders moved to price around a 60% chance that the ECB will stick with its current interest rate in September, having raised bets that they would hike the day before after German and Spanish inflation figures. The single currency was last at $1.0888 , down 0.3% on the day, but still up almost 1% this week. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0823(5DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0841(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0762(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0751(Lower BB).
GBP/USD: The pound dipped against dollar on Thursday after comments by Bank of England Chief Economist Huw Pill. BoE Chief Economist Huw Pill said on Thursday Bank of England will see the job through on bringing high inflation back down to its 2% target even if there is a risk that high interest rates hurt Britain's economy In a speech that sought to underscore this month's message from the BoE's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), Pill said borrowing costs should probably stay high to quash "stubbornly high" core inflation, rather than fall quickly. Pill said there was a risk that the increases in borrowing costs hurt Britain's economy, which some economists think is on the cusp of a recession. Sterling was down 0.33% at $1.2678 at 1000 GMT. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2747(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2797(Aug 22nd high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2679 (50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2644(5DMA).
USD/CHF: The dollar strengthened against the Swiss franc on Thursday as investors were cautious ahead of a barrage of U.S. data that could add to bets that interest rates have peaked.. U.S. personal consumption data and core PCE which is the Federal Reserve's favoured inflation gauge - are due later on Thursday. On Wednesday, the Commerce Department revised down U.S. second-quarter growth to 2.1% from an estimate of 2.4%. U.S. payrolls data is due on Friday and second-tier figures this week such as job openings and private payrolls have indicated the labour market could be losing steam. Dollar was up 0.33% against Swiss franc at 0.8813 at 10:38 GMT .Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.8818 (38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.8868(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.8767 (50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.8745(Aug 30th low).
USD/JPY: The dollar dipped on Thursday as traders positioned for more U.S. economic readings that could further alter the odds of another interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve. U.S. gross domestic product increased at a 2.1% annualized pace in the last quarter, lower than the preliminary estimate of 2.4% growth. Meanwhile, U.S. private payrolls increased by a lesser-than-expected 177,000 jobs last month .Attention now turns to inflation numbers as measured by the U.S. personal consumption expenditures (PCE) on Thursday the Federal Reserve's preferred gauge of inflation and non-farm payrolls on Friday. Strong resistance can be seen at 146.98(23.6%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 147.73( Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen 148.45 (38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 145.03(21DMA).
Equities Recap
European shares rose on Thursday as financials received a lift from Swiss lender UBS's decision to absorb Credit Suisse's domestic bank, while investors braced for a barrage of key economic data due later in the day.
At (GMT 10:46 ),UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading down at 0.04 percent, Germany's Dax was up by 0.55 percent, France’s CAC was down by 0.15 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold firmed near one-month highs on Thursday to cap this month’s losses as the odds of another U.S. interest rate hike were trimmed by data earlier this week pointing to a slowing labor market, while traders keep their eyes peeled for the upcoming inflation reading.
Spot gold was up 0.1% higher at $1,944.74 per ounce by 1003 GMT, close to its Aug. 2 high of $1,948.79 hit on Wednesday. U.S. gold futures were down 0.1% to $1,971.50.
Oil prices eased on Thursday after data showed a drop in China's manufacturing activity, with investors also eyeing a U.S. personal consumption expenditure report due later in the day.
Brent crude futures for October, which expire on Thursday, dipped 12 cents, or 0.1%, at $85.74 per barrel by 0350 GMT. The more active November contract was down 6 cents, or 0.1%, at $85.18.