Posted at 31 August 2023 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•US Real Consumer Spending (Q2) 1.7% ,1.6% forecast, 4.2% previous
•US Core PCE Prices (Q2) 3.70%, 3.80% forecast, 4.90% previous
•US PCE Prices (Q2) 2.5%, 2.6%forecast, 4.1% previous
•US GDP Sales (Q2) 2.2%,2.3% forecast, 4.2% previous
•US GDP (QoQ) (Q2) 2.1%, 2.4% forecast, 2.0% previous
•US GDP Price Index (QoQ) (Q2) 2.0%,2.2% forecast, 4.1% previous
•US Retail Inventories Ex Auto 0.1%,0.3% previous
•US Jul Goods Trade Balance -91.18B,-89.94B forecast, -88.83B previous
•US Corporate Profits (QoQ) (Q2) 1.6%,-5.9% forecast, -5.9% previous
•US Wholesale Inventories (MoM) -0.1%,-0.4% forecast, -0.5% previous
•US Jul Pending Home Sales Index 77.6 ,76.8 previous
•US Jul Pending Home Sales (MoM) 0.9%,-0.6% forecast,0.3% previous
•US Cushing Crude Oil Inventories -1.504M,-2.440M forecast, -3.133M previous
•US Crude Oil Imports -0.586M,-1.555M forecast , 0.116M previous
• US Crude Oil Inventories -10.584M, -3.267M forecast, -6.135M previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•01:00 New Zealand Aug ANZ Business Confidence -1.9 forecast,-13.1 previous
•01:30 Australia Building Capital Expenditure (MoM) (Q2)-0.4% forecast, 1.3% previous
•01:30 Australia Plant/Machinery Capital Expenditure (QoQ) (Q2) -0.1% forecast, 3.7% previous
• 01:30 Australia Jul Housing Credit 0.2% previous
• 01:30 Australia Jul Private Sector Credit (MoM) 0.3% forecast, 0.2% previous
• 01:30 China Aug Non-Manufacturing PMI 51.1 forecast, 51.5 previous
• 01:30 China Aug Chinese Composite PMI 51.1 previous
• 01:30 China Aug Manufacturing PMI 49.5 forecast, 49.3 previous
• 01:30 China Aug Private New Capital Expenditure (QoQ) (Q2) 1.1% forecast, 2.4% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
• 01:30 Japan BoJ Board Member Nakamura Speaks
Currency Summaries
EUR/USD: The euro steadied against the dollar on Wednesday as rising inflation in Germany and Spain led investors to price in a bigger chance of an European Central Bank hike. Early inflation readings from the euro zone boosted the chances of the European Central Bank raising rates in September. German consumer prices, harmonised to compare with other European countries, increased by an annual 6.4% in August, down from a reading of 6.5% in July but above the 6.3% forecast in a poll of economists.Spain’s consumer prices rose to 2.6%, while core inflation fell to 6.1% from 6.2% in July.The data prompted money market traders to price in as high as a 60% chance of a 25 basis point hike from the ECB in September, before trimming bets to just above 50%. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0945(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1010(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0899(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0740(61.8%fib).
GBP/USD: The pound held mostly steady on Wednesday, after data showed British consumers borrowed less than expected in July in response to higher interest rates, while a gauge of housing market was forecast to hit an 11-year low this year. BoE data on Wednesday showed UK consumers increased their borrowing by less than expected in July in a possible sign of caution among households as borrowing costs rise.The pace of growth in consumer credit over the 12 months to July slowed to 7.3%, the smallest increase since December last year . Sterling, which is heading for its biggest monthly fall against the dollar in six months in August, was up 0.2% at $1.2665, Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2740(Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2795 (Aug 22nd high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2618 (5DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2576(38.2%fib).
USD/CAD: The Canadian dollar strengthened against the greenback on Wednesday as weaker dollar and higher oil prices boosted commodity linked Canadian Dollar fell after data showed that U.S. private payrolls rose less than expected in August, adding to expectations that the Federal Reserve would stop raising interest rates. his Friday’s jobs report for August will be closely watched for further confirmation that the tightness in the labor market is ebbing as interest rates remain relatively high.The loonie was trading 0.1% higher at C$1.3537 to the greenback, or 73.87 U.S. cents, after trading in a range of 1.3533 to 1.3576.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3564 (5DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3594 (23.6% fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3512(38.2% fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3450 (50% fib).
USD/JPY: The dollar dipped on Wednesday after data showed that U.S. private payrolls rose less than expected in August, adding to expectations that the Federal Reserve would stop raising rates. Softening data this week has raised bets that the U.S. central bank has concluded its tightening cycle. Private payrolls rose by 177,000 jobs last month, the ADP National Employment report showed on Wednesday. Economists polled had forecast private employment would increase by 195,000. Other data on Wednesday showed that the U.S. economy grew at a slightly less brisk pace than initially thought in the second quarter as businesses liquidated inventory. Investors now await the PCE price index on Thursday and the nonfarm payrolls (NFP) report on Friday. Strong resistance can be seen at 147.26(23.6%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 147.65Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen 145.16(5DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 145.3038.2%fib).
Equities Recap
European shares struggled for direction on Wednesdayas losses in utilities, led by Denmark's Orsted, kept a lid on gains, while insurers rose on positive results from Prudential.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed up by 0.12 percent, Germany's Dax ended up down by 0.24 percent, France’s CAC finished the day down by 0.12 percent.
Wall Street gains, U.S. stocks ended higher and the dollar extended its losses on Wednesday, as a slew of disappointing economic data raised the probability that the Federal Reserve will press the pause button in its efforts to rein in inflation.
Dow Jones closed up by 0.11 percent, S&P 500 ended up by 0.38 percent, Nasdaq finished the day up by 0.54 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold hit its highest in nearly a month on Wednesday, as a fresh batch of weak U.S. economic readings reinforced the view that the Federal Reserve may have to hit pause on its interest rate hikes.
Spot gold rose 0.4% to $1,943.92 per ounce by 2:20 p.m. EDT (1820 GMT), after hitting its highest since Aug. 2 earlier in the session. U.S. gold futures settled 0.4% higher to $1,973.00.
Oil prices gained on Wednesday as U.S. government data showed tighter-than-expected crude supplies, while concerns about the Chinese economy limited gains.
Brent crude futures for October rose 37 cents to settle at $85.86 a barrel. The October contract expires on Thursday and the more active November contract was up 33 cents at $85.21.U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures gained 47 cents to $81.63.