Posted at 30 August 2023 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•German Jul Car Registration (YoY) 18.1%, 24.8% previous
•German Jul French Car Registration (MoM) -32.4%, 31.1% previous
•German Jul Import Price Index (MoM) -0.6%, 0.0% forecast,-1.6% previous
•German Jul German Import Price Index (YoY) -13.2%,-12.9% forecast, -11.4% previous
•Spanish Aug CPI (YoY) 2.6%, 2.6% forecast, 2.3% previous
•Spanish Aug Spanish HICP (MoM) 0.5%, 0.6% forecast,-0.1% previous
• Spanish Aug HICP (YoY) 2.4%, 2.5% forecast,2.1% previous
• EU Aug Business and Consumer Survey 93.3, 93.7 forecast,94.5 previous
• EU Aug Services Sentiment 3.9, 4.2 forecast, 5.7 previous
• EU Aug Consumer Confidence -16.0, -16.0 forecast,-15.1 previous
•German Aug CPI (YoY) 5.9%, 6.1% previous
•German Aug CPI (MoM) 0.3%, 0.4% previous
•Belgium Aug CPI (YoY) 4.09%, 4.14% previous
•Belgium Aug Belgium CPI (MoM) 0.76%, 0.81% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•12:30 US Real Consumer Spending (Q2) 1.6% forecast, 4.2% previous
•12:30 US Core PCE Prices (Q2) 3.80% forecast, 4.90% previous
•12:30 US PCE Prices (Q2) 2.6% forecast, 4.1% previous
•12:30 US GDP Sales (Q2) 2.3% forecast, 4.2% previous
•12:30 US GDP (QoQ) (Q2) 2.4% forecast, 2.0% previous
•12:30 US GDP Price Index (QoQ) (Q2) 2.2% forecast, 4.1% previous
•12:30 US Retail Inventories Ex Auto 0.3% previous
•12:30 US Jul Goods Trade Balance -89.94B forecast, -88.83B previous
•12:30 US Corporate Profits (QoQ) (Q2) -5.9% forecast, -5.9% previous
•12:30 US Wholesale Inventories (MoM) -0.4% forecast, -0.5% previous
•14:00 US Jul Pending Home Sales Index 76.8 previous
•14:00 US Jul Pending Home Sales (MoM) -0.6% forecast,0.3% previous
•15:00 US Cushing Crude Oil Inventories -2.440M forecast, -3.133M previous
•15:00 US Crude Oil Imports -1.555M forecast , 0.116M previous
•15:00 US Crude Oil Inventories -3.267M forecast, -6.135M previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
•No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro steadied against the dollar on Wednesday as rising inflation in Germany and Spain led investors to price in a bigger chance of an European Central Bank hike, while U.S. labour market data due later this week is set to give clues on the Federal Reserve rate path.Spain and Germany inflation releases could give some indication on the bloc's wider numbers due on Thursday.Inflation in Germany's most populous state, North Rhine-Westphalia (NRW), rose by 5.9 % year-on-year from 5.8% in July, supporting expectations that the European Central Bank's tightening cycle might not end soon.In Spain, consumer prices rose 2.6% year-on-year in August from 2.3% in July, and in line with the 2.6% expected by analysts polled .Money markets raised their bets on a September rate hike from the ECB, pricing in a 60% chance of a 25 basis-point move. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0823(5DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0841(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0762(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0751(Lower BB).
GBP/USD: The pound held mostly steady on Wednesday, after data showed British consumers borrowed less than expected in July in response to higher interest rates, while a gauge of housing market was forecast to hit an 11-year low this year. BoE data on Wednesday showed UK consumers increased their borrowing by less than expected in July in a possible sign of caution among households as borrowing costs rise.The pace of growth in consumer credit over the 12 months to July slowed to 7.3%, the smallest increase since December last year . Sterling, which is heading for its biggest monthly fall against the dollar in six months in August, was up 0.2% at $1.2665, Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2700(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2795 (Aug 22nd high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2618 (5DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2576(38.2%fib).
USD/CHF: The dollar dipped against the Swiss franc on Wednesday as greenback wobbled as weak U.S. labour data bolstered bets that the Federal Reserve was likely done with its interest rate hikes. The Fed is expected to stand pat at its meeting next month, with markets pricing in a 44% chance of a rate hike at the November meeting compared with 51% a day earlier, according to the CME’s FedWatch Tool. Investors now await the Commerce Department’s second take on April-June GDP later in the day, the PCE price index on Thursday and the non-farm payrolls report on Friday. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.8818 (5DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.8856(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.8733 (38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.8700(Lower BB).
USD/JPY: The dollar strengthened on Wednesday as investors were looking to labour market data for clues on the U.S. Federal Reserve's interest rate path. U.S. job openings dropped to the lowest level in nearly 2-1/2 years in July as the labor market gradually slowed, bolstering expectations that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged next month. Bank of Japan board member Naoki Tamura reiterated on Wednesday that the central bank was closely watching the effects on the economy of a weak yen when conducting policy. Investors are now awaiting the Commerce Department’s second take on April-June GDP later in the day, personal consumption expenditures price index on Thursday, and the non-farm payrolls report on Friday. The dollar rose 0.35% to 146.38 yen.Strong resistance can be seen at 147.26(23.6%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 147.65Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen 145.16(5DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 145.3038.2%fib).
Equities Recap
European shares struggled for direction on Wednesday as losses in utilities, led by Denmark's Orsted, kept a lid on gains, while insurers rose on positive results from Prudential.
At (GMT 12:20 ),UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading up at 0.38 percent, Germany's Dax was down by 0.14 percent, France’s CAC was down by 0.04 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold was perched atop a three-week high on Wednesday as traders positioned for more U.S. economic readings that could further alter the odds of another interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve.
Spot gold was flat at $1,936.94 per ounce by 1020 GMT, near its highest level since Aug. 7 hit on Tuesday. U.S. gold futures remained unchanged at $1,965.10.
Oil prices extended gains on Wednesday after industry data showed a large draw in crude inventories in the U.S., the world's biggest fuel consumer, and as concerns about a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico kept investors on edge.
Brent crude futures for October climbed 31 cents, or 0.36%, to $85.80 a barrel by 0415 GMT. The October contract expires on Thursday and the more active November contract was at $85.23 a barrel, up by 32 cents.