Posted at 29 August 2023 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•Sweden GDP (YoY) (Q2) -1.0%, -2.4% forecast,0.8% previous
•Sweden Jul Retail Sales (YoY) -2.1%,-2.2% forecast, -4.4% previous
•Sweden Jul Retail Sales (MoM) 1.0%, 0.2% forecast,-0.3% previous
•French Aug Consumer Confidence 85,85 forecast, 85 previous
•Spanish Jul Retail Sales (YoY) 7.3%,0.6% forecast,6.4% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•13:00 US Jun House Price Index 404.1 previous
•13:00 US Jun S&P/CS HPI Composite - 20 s.a. (MoM) 1.2% forecast,1.0% previous
•13:00 US Jun House Price Index (YoY) 2.8% previous
•13:00 US Jun House Price Index (MoM) 0.2% forecast,0.7% previous
•13:00 US Jun S&P/CS HPI Composite - 20 n.s.a. (MoM) 0.6% forecast,1.5% previous
•13:00 US Jun S&P/CS HPI Composite - 20 n.s.a. (YoY) -1.3% forecast,-1.7% previous
•14:00 US Jul JOLTs Job Openings 9.465M forecast,9.582M previous
•14:00 US Aug CB Consumer Confidence 116.0 forecast,117.0 previous
•14:00 US Aug Texas Services Sector Outlook -6.1 forecast,-4.2 previous
•14:00 US Aug Dallas Fed Services Revenues 6.8 forecast,12.9 previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
•No data Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro edged lower on Tuesday as investors keenly awaited economic data across the world this week, with inflation readings due from the euro zone, France, and Germany, and jobs data due from the United States. Among the string of U.S. economic data scheduled to be released this week, focus would be on the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure - the PCE price index due on Thursday, and the non-farm payrolls report on Friday. After Fed Chair Jerome Powell in his remarks at Jackson Hole last week left the door open for more rate hikes, markets are betting on a roughly 1-in-5 chance of another hike at the U.S. central bank’s September meeting, according to the CME FedWatch tool.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0823(5DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0841(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0762(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0751(Lower BB).
GBP/USD: The pound edged lower against the dollar on Tuesday as traders await comments by Bank of England Chief Economist Huw Pill later this week for more direction on the central bank's next move. Pill is due to speak on Thursday morning at the South African Reserve Bank Biennial conference, after BoE Deputy Governor Ben Broadbent said at the weekend that interest rates in Britain might have to stay high "for some time yet. Traders are currently betting on a more than 90% chance of a 25 basis point hike from the Bank of England at its next meeting on Sept. 21 . Sterling was up 0.02% at $1.2578 at 12:00 GMT. It was 0.13% higher against the euro at 85.75 pence , recovering having softened to its weakest in two weeks against the single currency the day before .Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2628(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2643(5DMA).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2566 (Lower BB), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2548(23.6%fib).
USD/CHF: The dollar strengthened against the Swiss franc on Tuesday as investors awaited a slew of economic data this week. Personal consumption expenditure data, the Fed's favoured inflation gauge, is due Thursday and non farm payrolls will come on Friday, though job openings figures for July released later on Tuesday will help set the tone. Economists polled by Reuters expect job openings to come in at 9.465 million, easing slightly from June.Markets are pricing in a 78% chance of the Fed standing pat on interest rates next month, the CME FedWatch tool showed, but the odds of a hike by the November meeting are now at around 60% compared with 42% a week earlier. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.8867 (Higher BB), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.8881(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.8820 (38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.8797(14DMA).
USD/JPY: The dollar strengthened on Tuesday as investors kept an eye out for potential intervention to shore up the struggling Japanese currency. Wary traders have been on the lookout for any signs of intervention from Japanese authorities. The widening gap in interest rates between Japan and the United States has pressured the yen, with the country's low yields making the currency an easy target for short-sellers and appropriate for funding trades. Japan intervened in currency markets last September when the dollar rose past 145 yen, prompting the Ministry of Finance to buy the yen and push the pair back to around 140 yen. The Japanese currency was a touch softer at 146.69 per dollar on Tuesday within a whisker of the 146.75 hit a day earlier, its weakest level since Nov. 9. Strong resistance can be seen at 147.26(23.6%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 147.65Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen 145.16(5DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 145.3038.2%fib).
Equities Recap
European shares hit two-week highs on Tuesday as mining stocks led gains tracking strength in metal prices and NN Group jumped after reporting first-half results.
At (GMT 12:20 ),UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading up at 1.38 percent, Germany's Dax was up by 0.14 percent, France’s CAC was up by 0.17 percent.
Commodities Recap
Oil prices crept up on Tuesday as supply concerns from a hurricane hurtling towards the U.S. Gulf Coast limited bearish sentiment about the possibility of another U.S. interest rate hike undercutting demand.
Brent crude edged 63 cents higher at $85.05 a barrel by 1026 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude ticked up 57 cents to $80.67 a barrel.
Gold edged higher on Tuesday as bond yields drifted lower, while markets looked to upcoming data on the U.S. labour market and inflation that is expected to influence the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision next month.