Posted at 25 August 2023 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•German GDP (QoQ) (Q2)0.0%, 0.0% forecast,-0.1% previous
•German GDP (YoY) (Q2)-0.2%, -0.2% forecast,-0.2% previous
•German GDP (YoY) (Q2)-0.20%,-0.20% previous
• German Aug Business Expectations 82.6,83.8 forecast,83.5 previous
• German Aug German Ifo Business Climate Index 85.7, 86.7 forecast,87.3 previous
• German Aug Current Assessment 89.0,90.0 forecast,91.3 previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•12:30 Canada Wholesale Sales (MoM)-2.8% previous
•12:30 Canada Manufacturing Sales (MoM)-1.7% previous
•13:00 Belgium Aug NBB Business Climate -13.5 forecast,-14.8 previous
•14:00 US Aug Michigan Inflation Expectations 3.3% forecast,3.4% previous
•14:00 US Aug Michigan Consumer Expectations 67.3 forecast,68.3 previous
•14:00 US Aug Michigan Current Conditions 77.4 forecast,76.6 previous
•14:00 US Aug Michigan Consumer Sentiment 71.2 forecast,71.6 previous
•14:00 US Aug Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations 2.9% forecast,3.0% previous
•15:00 Canada Jun Budget Balance (YoY) 1.52B previous
•15:00 Canada Jun Budget Balance -5.30B forecast,3.30B previous
•17:00 U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count 520 previous
•17:00 U.S. Baker Hughes Total Rig Count 642 previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
•19:00 ECB President Lagarde Speaks
•14:05 US Fed Chair Powell Speaks
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro fell to its lowest level since mid-June on Friday, held back by growing expectations the European Central Bank could soon pause rate hikes. ECB policymakers are increasingly worried about weakening growth prospects and, while the debate is still open, momentum for a pause in its interest rate increases is building. Powell speaks at the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium at 1405 GMT, while ECB chief Christine Lagarde speaks at the same gathering later in the day. The euro hit its lowest since mid-June at around $1.0766 before drifting higher. It was last down just 0.13% on the day. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0841(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0857(5DMA).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0767(Daily low), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0762(61.8%fib).
GBP/USD: The British pound dropped to a 10-week low on Friday as investors rein in expectations of where they think the Bank of England's interest rate might peak after recent soft activity data.S&P Global's flash purchasing managers' index (PMI) for August, released on Wednesday, showed business activity contracted, indicating the UK economy was on course to shrink in the third quarter and prompting markets to scale back tightening bets.Sterling was last down 0.1% at $1.2591, having earlier dropped to its lowest level since June 13 at $1.2560. The euro stood at 85.72 pence , also down 0.1%. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2677(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2765(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2610(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2548(61.8%fib).
USD/CHF: The dollar strengthened against the Swiss franc on Friday as investors awaited remarks from the heads of the Federal Reserve and European Central Bank at a conference in Jackson Hole. Fed Chair Jerome Powell is scheduled to speak at 1405 GMT, while European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde will be taking the stage at 1900 GMT and investors will be looking for clarity on whether more rate increases are in store and how long the Fed plans to hold rates high. The U.S. dollar indexwhich measures the currency against a basket of six developed-market peers, including the euro and yen pushed as high as 104.31 on Friday, a level last seen in early June. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.8866(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards at 0.8947(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.8812(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.8743(21DMA).
USD/JPY: The dollar strengthened against yen on Friday as investors waited to hear from central bankers at the Jackson Hole Symposium, which might provide clues about the monetary policy path.Investors want to understand from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, who will speak at 1405 GMT, whether the U.S. central bank is done with its tightening cycle and how long it plans to keep rates at elevated levels.Fed officials Susan Collins and Patrick Harker suggested on Thursday that the U.S. central bank doesn’t need to raise rates again while keeping open the option for more action. BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda is scheduled to speak at Jackson Hole on Saturday. Against Japan's currency , the dollar edged tentatively back toward last week's nine-month high of 146.545, trading as strong as 146.26. Strong resistance can be seen at 146.45(Aug 21st high) an upside break can trigger rise towards 147.04(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen 145.02(5DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 143.91(38.2%fib).
Equities Recap
European shares reversed early losses on Friday as miners and energy stocks rose on firm commodity prices, with focus now shifting to speeches from major central bank heads at the Jackson Hole symposium in the United States.
At (GMT 12:10 ),UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading up at 0.70 percent, Germany's Dax was up by 0.65 percent, France’s CAC was up by 0.92 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold steadied on Friday as it heads for its best week since mid-July, with support from a pullback in the U.S. bond yields before Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s keynote remarks at the Jackson Hole symposium.
Spot gold edged down 0.1% to $1,915.40 per ounce by 0958 GMT, having risen about 1.4% so far this week. U.S. gold futures shed 0.2% to $1,943.50.
Oil prices jumped more than 1% on Friday as the dollar firmed ahead of an eagerly awaited speech by the head of the U.S. Federal Reserve for hints on the outlook for interest rates.
Brent crude rose 93 cents, or about 1.1%, to $84.29 a barrel by 1104 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was up 87 cents, also roughly 1.1%, at $79.92.