Posted at 24 August 2023 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•U.S. Fed Chair due to speak at Jackson Hole Symposium on Friday
•US Jul Durable Goods Orders (MoM) -5.2%,-4.0% forecast, 4.7% previous
•US Jul Durables Excluding Defense (MoM) -5.4% ,6.0% previous
•US Jul Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) 0.5%, 0.2% forecast,0.6% previous
•US Jul Chicago Fed National Activity 0.12, -0.32 previous
•US Initial Jobless Claims 230K,240K forecast,239K previous
•US Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg. 236.75K,232.63K forecast, 234.25K previous
•US Continuing Jobless Claims 1,702K,1,708K forecast, 1,716K previous
•US Goods Orders Non Defense Ex Air (MoM) 0.1%,0.1% forecast, 0.2% previous
•US Aug KC Fed Manufacturing Index 12,-20 previous
•US Aug KC Fed Composite Index 0,-11 previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•No Data Ahead
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
•No significant Events Ahead
Currency Summaries
EUR/USD: The euro declined on Thursday as investors scaled back their bets on the ECB monetary tightening path after surveys showed an unexpectedly large decline in business activity. Surveys showed that Europe's manufacturing output continued to shrink and services activity fell into decline, dampening any boon for the euro. Money markets price around a 40% chance of a 25 basis points (bps) rate hike by the European Central Bank in September, from about 60% before the bloc’s purchasing managers’ indexes were released on Wednesday, and a terminal rate at approximately 3.9% by year-end. The euro lost 0.51% against the dollar. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0847(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0861(9DMA).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0793(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0752(61.8%fib).
GBP/USD: The pound declined against the on Thursday, a day after data showed a contraction in British activity in August, prompting markets to trim expectations for further rate hikes from the Bank of England. Wednesday’s soft activity data, which also showed the slowest growth in output prices since February 2021, had traders betting that the BoE will not need to raise rates as high as previously thought to bring inflation back down to target.The central bank has so far raised interest rates 14 times since December 2021, taking them to a 15-year high of 5.25%. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2658(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2705(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2591(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2514(61.8%fib).
USD/CAD: The Canadian dollar weakened on Thursday against its broadly stronger U.S. counterpart as equity markets fell, but the currency’s move stopped short of the three-month low it hit the previous day. Wall Street’s main indexes fell as investors turned cautious ahead of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s speech later this week that will offer clues on the interest rate path.The price of oil rose 0.1% to $78.96 a barrel, while the U.S. dollar rallied against a basket of major currencies. The loonie was trading 0.3% lower at 1.3570 to the greenback, or 73.69 U.S. cents, after trading in a range of 1.3511 to 1.3587. On Wednesday, it touched its weakest intraday level since May 31 at 1.3603. .Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3604 (23.6% fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3631(38.2% fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3559(5DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3519(38.2% fib).
USD/JPY: The dollar strengthened against yen on Thursday as investors waited to see what interest rate signals the U.S. Federal Reserve could send at its annual Jackson Hole meeting. Investors are focussing on Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s speech at the Jackson Hole central bankers gathering, that will be the directional catalyst of the fixed-income market, along with next week’s euro area inflation data.Powell will speak at 1405 GMT on Friday; ECB president Christine Lagarde will speak the same day at 1900 GMT. On the data front , the number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits fell last week as labour market conditions remained tight despite the Fed’s aggressive rate hike. Strong resistance can be seen at 145.98 (23.6%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 147.04(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen 145.28(14DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 143.81(38.2%fib)
Equities Recap
European shares closed in the red on Thursday, as the early rally in chipmakers fizzled and miners snapped a three-day winning streak, while concerns over any economic downturn kept investors on edge.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed up by 0.18 percent, Germany's Dax ended down by 0.68 percent, France’s CAC finished the day down by 0.44 percent.
Wall Street's main indexes fell as investors turned cautious ahead of Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell’s speech at the Jackson Hole symposium.
Dow Jones closed down by 1.08% percent, S&P 500 closed down by 1.35 % percent, Nasdaq settled down by 1.87% percent.
Treasuries Recap
Treasury yields rebounded on Thursday after a big sell-off the day before as claims for unemployment benefits pointed to a still-strong U.S. jobs market that will keep alive the Federal Reserve's hawkish message of higher for longer interest rates.
The yield on 10-year Treasury notes was up 3.3 basis points at 4.231% after tumbling about 14 basis points on Wednesday due to weak PMI data.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices were nearly steady on Thursday despite a stronger dollar and an uptick in bond yields as caution sets in ahead of Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell’s speech at the Jackson Hole symposium.
Spot gold was up 0.1% at $1,916.69 per ounce by 01:48 p.m. EDT (1748 GMT). U.S. gold futures settled 0.1% lower at $1,947.10.
Oil prices closed a volatile session slightly higher on Thursday, falling a dollar a barrel in early trading on demand worries and a strong dollar, but then bouncing back after a report of sliding gasoil stocks in Europe.
Brent crude rose 15 cents, or 0.2%, to $83.36 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude rose 16 cents, or 0.2%, to $79.05 a barrel. Prices traded lower for the majority of the session, before pushing higher in the last half hour of trading.