Posted at 24 August 2023 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•Finnish Jul PPI (YoY) -10.0%,-9.5% previous
•Finnish Jul Import Price Index (YoY) -13.3%,-11.9% previous
•Finnish Jul Export Price Index (YoY) -12.3%,-11.9% previous
•French Aug Business Survey 96,99 forecast, 100 previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•12:30 US Jul Durable Goods Orders (MoM) -4.0% forecast, 4.7% previous
•12:30 US Jul Durables Excluding Defense (MoM) 6.0% previous
•12:30 US Jul Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) 0.2% forecast,0.6% previous
•12:30 US Jul Chicago Fed National Activity -0.32 previous
•12:30 Canada Wholesale Sales (MoM) -2.8% previous
•12:30 US Initial Jobless Claims 240K forecast,239K previous
•12:30 US Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg. 232.63K forecast, 234.25K previous
•12:30 US Continuing Jobless Claims 1,708K forecast, 1,716K previous
•12:30 US Goods Orders Non Defense Ex Air (MoM) 0.1% forecast, 0.2% previous
•15:00 US Aug KC Fed Manufacturing Index -20 previous
•15:00 US Aug KC Fed Composite Index -11 previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
•No significant events
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro declined on Thursday as investors scaled back their bets on the ECB monetary tightening path after surveys showed an unexpectedly large decline in business activity. Surveys showed that Europe's manufacturing output continued to shrink and services activity fell into decline, dampening any boon for the euro. Money markets price around a 40% chance of a 25 basis points (bps) rate hike by the European Central Bank in September, from about 60% before the bloc’s purchasing managers’ indexes were released on Wednesday, and a terminal rate at approximately 3.9% by year-end. The single currency fell 0.07% to $1.0857. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0841(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0857(5DMA).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0799(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0762(61.8%fib).
GBP/USD: The pound declined against the on Thursday, a day after data showed a contraction in British activity in August, prompting markets to trim expectations for further rate hikes from the Bank of England. Wednesday’s soft activity data, which also showed the slowest growth in output prices since February 2021, had traders betting that the BoE will not need to raise rates as high as previously thought to bring inflation back down to target.The central bank has so far raised interest rates 14 times since December 2021, taking them to a 15-year high of 5.25%. Sterling was last at $1.2671, down 0.5% on the day. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2677(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2765(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2610(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2548(61.8%fib).
USD/CHF: The dollar strengthened against the Swiss franc on Thursday as investors were cautious after softer-than expected economic data muddied interest rate outlook ahead of the Federal Reserve's Jackson Hole symposium. Market participants’ focus will be on a speech by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell at Jackson Hole on Friday for additional clues about the path for interest rates.According to the CME’s FedWatch Tool, the probability that the Fed leaves rates unchanged at its September meeting is now at 88.5%. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.8839 (23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards at 0.8794(5DMA).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.8767(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.8745 (21DMA).
USD/JPY: The dollar strengthened against yen on Thursday as investors waited to see what interest rate signals the U.S. Federal Reserve could send at its annual Jackson Hole meeting. Investors are focussing on Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s speech at the Jackson Hole central bankers gathering, that will be the directional catalyst of the fixed-income market, along with next week’s euro area inflation data.Powell will speak at 1405 GMT on Friday; ECB president Christine Lagarde will speak the same day at 1900 GMT. The safe-haven dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of six major currencies , rose 0.15% to 103.50. Strong resistance can be seen at 146.45(Aug 21st high) an upside break can trigger rise towards 147.04(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen 145.02(5DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 143.91(38.2%fib)
Equities Recap
European shares hit one-week highs on Thursday, with chipmakers lifting the technology sector after industry bellwether Nvidia smashed expectations with its quarterly revenue forecast, and as easing bond yields also improved risk sentiment.
At (GMT 12:10 ),UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading up at 0.21 percent, Germany's Dax was up by 0,02 percent, France’s CAC was up by 0.10 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold rose for a fourth straight session to a two-week high on Thursday, extending gains from the previous session fuelled by weaker U.S. data in the run up to likely interest rate guidance from central bankers at Jackson Hole.
Spot gold was up 0.3% at $1,919.07 per ounce by 0956 GMT, hitting its highest level since Aug. 10. U.S. gold futures were flat at $1,947.40.
Oil prices steadied after earlier declines on Thursday caused by disappointing economic data from key economies, with investors awaiting a speech by U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell on Friday for clues on interest rate moves.
Brent crude climbed 6 cents, or 0.1%, to $83.27 a barrel by 0855 GMT, after dropping to $82.57 earlier in the session. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude rose 4 cents, or 0.1%, to $78.93 a barrel, after falling to $78.22.