Posted at 23 August 2023 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•French Aug Services PMI 46.7 ,47.5 forecast,47.1 previous
•French Aug French S&P Global Composite PMI 46.6,47.5 forecast,46.6 previous
•French Aug French Manufacturing PMI 46.4,45.0 forecast, 45.1 previous
•German Aug Manufacturing PMI 39.1,38.7 forecast,38.8 previous
•German Aug German Composite PMI 44.7,48.3 forecast,48.5 previous
•German Aug German Services PMI 47.3,51.5 forecast,52.3 previous
•EU Aug Services PMI 48.3, 50.5 forecast, 50.9 previous
•EU Aug S&P Global Composite PMI 47.0,48.5 forecast, 48.6 previous
•EU Aug Manufacturing PMI 43.7,42.6 forecast,42.7 previous
•UK Manufacturing PMI 42.5, 45.0 forecast, 45.3 previous
•UK Services PMI 48.7, 51.0 forecast, 51.5 previous
•UK Composite PMI 47.9, 50.3 forecast, 50.8 previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•12:30 Canada Jun Core Retail Sales (MoM) 0.3% forecast , 0.0% previous
•12:30 Canada Jun Retail Sales (MoM) 0.0% forecast,0.2% previous
•13:45 US Aug S&P Global Composite PMI 52.0 forecast, 52.0 previous
•13:45 US Aug Services PMI 52.3 forecast, 52.3 previous
•13:45 US Aug Manufacturing PMI 49.3 forecast,49.0 previous
•14:00 US Jul New Home Sales (MoM) -2.5% previous
•14:00 US Jul New Home Sales 705K forecast,697K previous
•14:00 EU Aug Consumer Confidence -14.3 forecast,-15.1 previous
•14:00 US Payrolls Benchmark, n.s.a. 506.00K previous
•14:30 US EIA Weekly Distillates Stocks 0.218M forecast, 0.296M previous
•14:30 US Cushing Crude Oil Inventories -0.906M forecast, -0.837M previous
•14:30 US Crude Oil Inventories -2.850M forecast, -5.960M previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
• No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro declined on Wednesday after a survey showed German business activity contracted at the fastest pace in more than three years in August. German business activity contracted at the fastest pace for more than three years in August, a preliminary survey showed on Wednesday. The HCOB German Flash Composite Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), compiled by S&P Global, fell to 44.7 from July's 48.5, hitting its lowest since May 2020 and confounding analysts' expectations for a reading of 48.3.The indicator was below the 50 level denoting growth in activity for the second consecutive month. The single currency weakened after the German data, hitting its lowest level against the dollar since June 15 at $1.0805. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0841(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0857(5DMA).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0799(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0762(61.8%fib).
GBP/USD: The British pound was on track for its biggest daily drop against the dollar in almost a month after a survey showed a slump in UK business activity in August, prompting a scaling back of expectations for where interest rates will peak.The S&P Global/CIPS Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) tumbled to 47.9 in August from 50.8 in July, according to a preliminary estimate, the lowest level since January 2021.The manufacturing PMI dropped from 45.3 to 42.5, its lowest since May 2020, while the services sector index fell from 51.5 to 48.7, matching January's two-year low. The pound was last down 0.8% against the dollar to $1.2632, its lowest level since Aug. 14, and its biggest daily drop against the greenback since July 27. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2677(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2765(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2610(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2548(61.8%fib).
USD/CHF: The dollar steadied against the Swiss franc on Wednesday as investors looked to the Federal Reserve chair's speech this week for cues on the path of monetary policy. nvestors looking to Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell's speech this week at the Jackson Hole Symposium for cues on the monetary policy path.A recent run of strong U.S. economic data has helped allay worries of an impending recession but with inflation still above the Fed's target of 2%, investors are wary that the central bank may keep rates in a higher range for longer. The dollar index , which measures the U.S. currency against six rivals and is most heavily weighted to the euro, rose to 103.95, its highest level since June 8. The index is up 2% in August, on course to snap a two-month losing streak. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.8839 (23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards at 0.8794(5DMA).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.8767(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.8745 (21DMA).
USD/JPY: The dollar edged lower on Wednesday as traders were on tenterhooks as they warily watch for any signs of intervention. The dollar's break above 145 yen last year triggered intervention, and speculation has begun mounting that Tokyo could soon step into the market to support its currency again if the yen weakens further. Japan’s factory activity shrank for a third straight month in August, although the pace of decline slowed, a private sector survey showed on Wednesday. Investors now await the Jackson Hole Symposium in Wyoming later this week, with a particular focus on Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s speech on Friday. Strong resistance can be seen at 146.45(23.6%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 147.04(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen 145.27(Daily low), a break below could take the pair towards 145.05(38.2%fib)
Equities Recap
The Swiss stock index jumped over 1% on Wednesday after Roche surged on positive lung cancer drug trial data, while other European shares gained as investors awaited this week's centrepiece is the Jackson Hole Symposium.
At (GMT 12:10),UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading up at 0.68 percent, Germany's Dax was down by 0.03 percent, France’s CAC was down by 0.05percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold extended gains above the $1,900 level on Wednesday, drawing support from a retreat in U.S. bond yields as investors positioned for guidance from monetary policymakers at the Jackson Hole symposium.
Spot gold firmed 0.3% to $1,902.90 per ounce by 0943 GMT, drifting higher for the third straight session. U.S. gold futures rose 0.3% to $1,932.20.
Oil prices slid more than 1% on Wednesday as gloomy global manufacturing data grabbed attention ahead of an annual meeting of central bankers at Jackson Hole in the United States, with interest rates high on the agenda.
Brent crude was down $1.01, or 1.2%, at $83.02 a barrel by 1027 GMT while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was down 98 cents, or 1.2%, at $78.66. Both benchmarks fell by more than $1 earlier in the session.