Posted at 22 August 2023 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•Swiss Jul Trade Balance 3.129B,4.300B forecast,4.823B previous
•UK Jul Public Sector Net Borrowing 3.48B, 17.03B forecast, 17.67B previous
•UK Jul Public Sector Net Cash Requirement -7.474B,4.023B forecast, 11.976B previous
•EU Jun Current Account 35.8B, -6.9B forecast,9.1B previous
•EU Jun Current Account n.s.a. 36.8B forecast, -11.3B previous
•UK Aug CBI Industrial Trends Orders -15,-13 forecast, -9 previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•12:55 US Redbook (YoY) 0.7% previous
•14:00 US Jul Existing Home Sales 4.15M forecast,4.16M previous
•14:00 US Aug Richmond Manufacturing Index -7 forecast ,-9 previous
•14:00 US Richmond Services Index -4 forecast ,-2 previous
•14:00 US Aug Richmond Manufacturing Shipments -6 previous
•14:00 US Jul Existing Home Sales (MoM) -3.3% previous
•20:30 US API Weekly Crude Oil Stock -6.195M previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
•18:30 US FOMC Member Bowman Speaks
•18:30 US Fed Goolsbee Speaks
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro edged lower on Tuesday as focus shifted to European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde and Federal Reverse Chair Jerome Powell at Jackson Hole later this week for a read on the interest rate outlook. European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde and Federal Reverse Chair Jerome Powell are expected to provide clues about the interest rate outlook. Traders have nearly priced in that the Fed will hold rates at its next meeting, while leaning towards another 25-basis point hike by the ECB next month. The euro was 0.1% weaker at $1.0885. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0904(5DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0915(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0850(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0825(Lower BB).
GBP/USD: Britain’s pound rose slightly on Tuesday, benefiting from a resurgence of risk appetite across markets as the dollar eased from its recent 10-week highs. Rising U.S. Treasury yields and unease over China have kept investors cautious in recent weeks, benefiting the safe-haven dollar, but this trajectory eased on Tuesday and risk-sensitive currencies gained instead, with the euro, Australian dollar and British pound all up. Sterling was a touch firmer at $1.2760 but off session highs at around $1.28. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2762(21DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2816(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2686(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2628(Lower BB).
USD/CHF: The dollar eased slightly against the Swiss franc on Tuesday as global risk appetite recovered after being hurt by a jump in U.S. government bond yields and a weakening Chinese economy.Rising U.S. Treasury yields, with benchmark 10-year yields hitting 16-year highs on Tuesday, and unease over China have boosted the dollar this month. The U.S. dollar index - which measures the currency against six major counterparts, was a touch softer at 103.30, holding below Friday's 10-week highs at 103.68. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.8794(5DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.8839 (23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.8767(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.8745 (21DMA).
USD/JPY: The dollar edged lower on Tuesday after Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda met with the prime minister, although he said exchange-rate volatility was not discussed. The discussions took place in the wake of the dollar's recent ascent above 145 yen, a level that in September 2022 triggered Japan's first yen-buying operation since 1998. It was the second such meeting since Ueda assumed the top BOJ post in April .The BOJ last month tweaked its yield curve control (YCC) to allow long-term rates to rise more freely. But it stressed its resolve to maintain ultra-easy policy, keeping markets focused on the gap between U.S. and Japanese yields. Strong resistance can be seen at 146.45(23.6%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 147.04(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen 145.58(9DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 145.05(38.2%fib)
Equities Recap
European shares rose on Tuesday, driven by technology stocks as chipmakers tracked an overnight Wall Street rally ahead of Nvidia's earnings, while Ubisoft jumped after Activision sold its non-European streaming rights to the French company.
At (GMT 12:15 ),UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading up at 0.62 percent, Germany's Dax was up by 1.18 percent, France’s CAC was up by 1.24 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices rose above $1,900 per ounce level on Tuesday, helped by a slight pullback in the dollar and bond yields as investors await the Jackson Hole Symposium later this week.
Spot gold was up 0.5% to $1,902.50 per ounce by 1009 GMT. U.S. gold futures gained 0.5% to $1,932.30.
Oil prices were little changed on Tuesday as investors remained downbeat on China's economic malaise hobbling demand from the world's top crude importer, limiting the impact of supply cuts.
Brent crude was down 29 cents at $84.17 a barrel by 1014 GMT, while the more active U.S. West Texas Intermediate October contract slipped 22 cents to $79.90 a barrel.