Posted at 21 August 2023 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
• US indexes: Dow down 0.1%, S&P 500 up 0.7%, Nasdaq up 1.6%
• French 12-Month BTF Auction 3.639% ,3.627% previous
• French 3-Month BTF Auction 3.684%,3.657% previous
• French 6-Month BTF Auction 3.658%,3.637% previous
• US 3-Month Bill Auction 5.300%,5.295% previous
• US 6-Month Bill Auction 5.295%, 5.290% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
• 05:00 Japan BoJ Core CPI (YoY) 2.7% forecast, 3.0% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
•No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro edged higher on Monday as investors balanced expectations for a higher-for-longer rates scenario against further signs of weakness from German data and some appetite for safe-haven assets due to concerns about China. Investor focus would be now on the Jackson Hole Symposium later this week, where European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde and U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell are expected to provide clues about the interest rate outlook. The European single currency was up 0.2% on the day at $1.0897, having lost 0.88% in a month. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0904(5DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0915(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0850(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0825(Lower BB).
GBP/USD: The pound edged higher on Monday as traders eye Jackson Hole meeting. Investors’ focus will be on U.S. Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell’s speech on Friday, as central bankers from around the world assemble in Jackson Hole for their annual conference.The Fed is likely done raising interest rates, according to a strong majority of economists polled , and a slight majority now expect the central bank to wait at least through end-March before cutting them. China, meanwhile, delivered a smaller cut to lending rates than markets expected, continuing Beijing’s run of disappointing stimulus steps. Sterling hovered at $1.2726. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2762(21DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2816(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2686(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2628(Lower BB).
USD/CAD: The Canadian dollar was little changed against its U.S. counterpart on Monday as higher bond yields helped underpin the greenback against its major peers. The yield on benchmark 10-year Treasury notes hit 15-year highs as concerns fester that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates higher for longer at a time deficit spending by the U.S. government gains increased attention. Canadian retail sales data for June, due on Wednesday, could offer clues on the strength of the domestic economy . The price of oil, one of Canada’s major exports, was down 0.6% at $80.79 a barrel.The loonie was trading nearly unchanged at 1.3550 to the greenback, or 73.80 U.S. cents, after trading in a range of 1.3497 to 1.3572. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3591(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3611 (Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3539 (5DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3507 (38.2%fib).
USD/JPY: The dollar edged higher on Monday as investors looked ahead to the Federal Reserve's Jackson Hole symposium for guidance on where rates might settle when the dust of this hiking cycle clears. A majority of polled analysts think the Fed is done hiking, while traders are betting on just under a 40% chance of a final Fed hike by November. The U.S. dollar, which has notched five weeks of gains helped by rising bond yields, was trading flat on Monday against a basket of peers, just below two-month highs touched on Friday. Strong resistance can be seen at 146.90(Daily high) an upside break can trigger rise towards 147.04(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen 145.65(5DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 144.79(38.2%fib)
Equities Recap
European equities recovered from a six-week low on Monday as investors awaited a Federal Reserve meeting on Friday at Jackson Hole, Wyoming.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed down by 0.06 percent, Germany's Dax ended up by 0.19 percent, France’s CAC finished the day up by 0.47 ercent.
The Nasdaq ended more than 1% higher and the S&P 500 also rose on Monday, with shares of Nvidia jumping as investors were optimistic ahead of its earnings this week, and other technology-related stocks gaining.
Dow Jones closed down by 0.11% percent, S&P 500 closed up by 0.69% percent, Nasdaq settled up by 1.56% percent.
Treasuries Recap
U.S. Treasury yields rose to decade highs as investors awaited a Federal Reserve meeting on Friday at Jackson Hole, Wyoming.
Longer-dated U.S. Treasury yields were up, with the 30-year yield hitting 4.468%, its highest since April 2011. Bond yields move inversely with prices.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices hovered around a five-month low on Monday, as elevated bond yields pressured bullion, while investors looked ahead to the U.S. Federal Reserve’s Jackson Hole symposium later this week for more clarity on the interest rate path.
Spot gold edged up 0.3% to $1,893.82 per ounce by 02:13 p.m. ET (1813 GMT), but still held near a five-month low of $1,883.70 it touched on Friday.U.S. gold futures settled 0.3% higher at $1,923.00.
Brent and U.S. crude oil finished on Monday at a loss, as hopes for Chinese demand faded.
Brent crude settled down 34 cents at $84.46, a loss of 0.4%. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude finished at $80.72 a barrel for a loss of 53 cents or 0.65%. Earlier in the session, both benchmarks had been up by as much as $1.