Posted at 21 August 2023 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•German Jul PPI (MoM) -1.1%, -0.2%forecast,-0.3%previous
•German Jul PPI (YoY) -6.0%,-5.1% forecast,0.1% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•12:55 French 12-Month BTF Auction 3.627% previous
•12:55 French 3-Month BTF Auction 3.657% previous
•12:55 French 6-Month BTF Auction 3.637% previous
•15:30 US 3-Month Bill Auction 5.295% previous
•15:30 US 6-Month Bill Auction 5.290% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
•No events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro edged higher on Monday as investors balanced expectations for a higher-for-longer rates scenario against further signs of weakness from German data and some appetite for safe-haven assets due to concerns about China. Investor focus would be now on the Jackson Hole Symposium later this week, where European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde and U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell are expected to provide clues about the interest rate outlook. The euro was up 0.2% against the dollar after last week's 0.7% loss. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0904(5DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0915(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0850(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0825(Lower BB).
GBP/USD: The pound edged higher on Monday as traders eye Jackson Hole meeting. Investors’ focus will be on U.S. Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell’s speech on Friday, as central bankers from around the world assemble in Jackson Hole for their annual conference.The Fed is likely done raising interest rates, according to a strong majority of economists polled , and a slight majority now expect the central bank to wait at least through end-March before cutting them. China, meanwhile, delivered a smaller cut to lending rates than markets expected, continuing Beijing’s run of disappointing stimulus steps. Sterling hovered at $1.2726. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2762(21DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2816(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2686(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2628(Lower BB).
USD/CHF: The dollar eased slightly against the Swiss franc on Monday as investors awaited further interest rate insight from the Federal Reserve .Investors will watch Fed Chair Jerome Powell's comments this week at the central bank's Jackson Hole Economic Symposium. Traders expect the Fed to hold rates in the 5.25%-5.5% range until 2024, according to the CME’s Fedwatch tool, while awaiting guidance from the Jackson Hole summit. The Swiss franc was just above a six-week low hit last week at 0.88 per dollar. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.8831(Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.8833 (Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.8754(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.8728(21DMA).
USD/JPY: The dollar edged higher on Monday as investors looked ahead to the Federal Reserve's Jackson Hole symposium for guidance on where rates might settle when the dust of this hiking cycle clears. A majority of polled analysts think the Fed is done hiking, while traders are betting on just under a 40% chance of a final Fed hike by November. The U.S. dollar, which has notched five weeks of gains helped by rising bond yields, was trading flat on Monday against a basket of peers, just below two-month highs touched on Friday. Strong resistance can be seen at 146.90(Daily high) an upside break can trigger rise towards 147.04(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen 145.65(5DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 144.79(38.2%fib)
Equities Recap
European shares advanced on Monday after four sessions of losses, as energy stocks rose tracking global crude prices higher and Danish drugmaker Novo Nordisk led gains in healthcare stocks.
At (GMT 12:15 ),UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading up at 0.33 percent, Germany's Dax was up by 0.61 percent, France’s CAC was up by 1.00 percent.
Commodities Recap
Oil prices edged higher on Monday as tighter supply reflected in fewer exports from Saudi Arabia and Russia and high heating oil prices outweighed concerns about global demand growth amid high interest rates.
Brent crude climbed 76 cents to $85.56 a barrel by 1047 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was at $82.1 a barrel, up 85 cents.
The September WTI contract expires on Tuesday and the more active October contract gained 78 cents to $81.44 a barrel.
Gold held around five-month lows on Monday, pressured by higher bond yields as markets geared up for the Federal Reserve’s Jackson Hole symposium for clues on where interest rates might settle.
Spot gold was largely flat at $1,888.60 per ounce by 1125 GMT, while U.S. gold futures added 0.1% to $1,918.10.