Posted at 18 August 2023 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•UK Jul Core Retail Sales (YoY) -3.4%,-2.2%forecast,-0.9% previous
•UK Jul Retail Sales (MoM) -1.2%, -0.5% forecast, 0.7% previous
•UK Jul Core Retail Sales (MoM) -1.4%,-0.7% forecast,0.8% previous
•UK Jul Retail Sales (YoY) -3.2%, -2.1% forecast,-1.0% previous
•Swiss Industrial Production (YoY) (Q2)-0.80%, 3.40% previous
•EU Jul CPI ex Tobacco (MoM) -0.1%, -0.6% forecast,0.2% previous
•EU Jul HICP ex Energy and Food (MoM) 0.0%,0.0% forecast,0.4% previous
•EU Jul CPI ex Tobacco (YoY) 5.3%,4.5% forecast,5.5% previous
•EU Jul CPI (MoM) -0.1%, -0.1% forecast,0.3% previous
•EU Jul CPI (YoY) 5.3%,5.3% forecast,5.5% previous
•EU Jul HICP ex Energy & Food (YoY) 6.6%,6.6% forecast ,6.8% previous
•EU Core CPI (YoY) 5.5%, 5.5% forecast ,5.5% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
•12:30 Canada Jul IPPI (YoY) -6.3% forecast ,-5.5% previous
•12:30 Canada Jul IPPI (MoM) -2.3% forecast ,-0.6% previous
•12:30 Canada Jul RMPI (MoM) 0.0% forecast ,-1.5% previous
•12:30 Canada Jul RMPI (YoY) -19.2% forecast ,-19.7% previous
•17:00 U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count 525 previous
•17:00 U.S. Baker Hughes Total Rig Count 654 previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
•No events ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro dipped on Friday as dollar was buoyed by demand for safer assets on worries over China's economy and bets U.S. interest rates will stay high. China's economic troubles have deepened, with property developer China Evergrande ( seeking Chapter 15 protection in a U.S. bankruptcy court, and concerns also growing over default risks in its shadow banking sector. Minutes from the most recent Federal Reserve meeting showed most members continued to see significant upside risks to inflation . Traders expect the Fed to hold rates in the 5.25-5.5% range until 2024, according to CME’s Fedwatch tool. The euro edged 0.1% lower at $1.0861, after touching on Thursday a six-week low of $1.0856.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0904(5DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0915(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0850(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0825(Lower BB).
GBP/USD: The pound softened on Friday as gloomy market sentiment sent investors to the safe haven of the U.S. dollar, and British retailers reported a bigger-than-expected drop in sales in July. Official data showed British sales volumes last month were 1.2% lower than in June, as heavy rain put off shoppers who are also feeling the hit from high inflation and 14 back-to-back increases in interest rates. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast a 0.5% drop. The pound was last 0.16% lower against the dollar at $1.2727 snapping three days of gains. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2762(21DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2816(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2686(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2628(Lower BB).
USD/CHF: The dollar strengthened against the Swiss franc on Friday as encouraging data from the U.S. reinforced expectations the Federal Reserve was not done with hiking rates.as encouraging data from the U.S. reinforced expectations the Federal Reserve was not done with hiking rates. The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits fell last week, pointing to continued tightness in the labor market even as job growth slows. Investors now await Fed Chair Jerome Powell to deliver a talk on the economic outlook on Aug. 25 at the central bankers’ confab held each year in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.8816(Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.8833 (Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.8754(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.8728(21DMA).
USD/JPY: The dollar edged lower on Friday as investors grappled with the potential for longer-lasting high interest rates and a struggling Chinese economy. China Evergrande, which is the world’s most heavily indebted property developer and became the poster child for China’s property crisis, on Thursday filed for protection from creditors in a U.S. bankruptcy court. Minutes from the Federal Reserve's last meeting showed this week that most members of the rate-setting committee continued to see significant upside risks to inflation, suggesting a bias toward further rate increases.Strong economic data this week, particularly retail sales, had already bolstered the case for additional tightening. Strong resistance can be seen at 146.76(23.6%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 147.04(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen 145.65(5DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 144.79(38.2%fib)
Equities Recap
European shares sank to their lowest in over a month on Friday, on track to post weekly losses, as concerns around interest rates across the world remaining higher for longer and dwindling growth prospects in China hammered risk sentiment.
At (GMT 12:15 ),UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading down at 1.03 percent, Germany's Dax was down by 1.04 percent, France’s CAC was down by 1.08 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold gained on Friday as the dollar and bond yields eased but remained on course for a third straight weekly dip as strong U.S. economic data reinforced bets that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates elevated.
Spot gold rose 0.3% to $1,894.41 per ounce by 1042 GMT, after touching its lowest in five months on Thursday. U.S. gold futures rose 0.3% to $1,920.80.
Oil prices looked set to close down this week following seven weeks of gains, as China's economic woes eclipse signs of tight supply.
Brent futures rose by about 18% and West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI) by more than 20% in the seven weeks ended Aug. 11, with prices hitting their highest levels in months.
Prices were little changed on Friday. Brent crude slipped 21 cents to $83.91 a barrel as of 1033 GMT, while WTI edged 9 cents lower to $80.3 a barrel.