Posted at 17 August 2023 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•US initial weekly jobless claims drop more than expected
•US indexes down; Dow 0.84%, S&P 500 0.77%, Nasdaq 1.77%
•Canada Jun Foreign Securities Purchases by Canadians 12.56B, -2.78B previous
• US Aug Philly Fed Business Conditions 3.9,31.6 forecast,29.1 previous
• US Aug Philly Fed Prices Paid 20.80 , 10.10 forecast,9.50 previous
• US Aug Philly Fed New Orders 16.0,-13.5 forecast,-15.9 previous
• US Aug Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index 12.0,-10.0 forecast,-13.5 previous
• US Aug Philly Fed Employment -6.0,-0.7 forecast,-1.0 previous
• Canada Jun Foreign Securities Purchases12.56B, 11.16B previous
• US Aug Philly Fed CAPEX Index -4.50,9.20 forecast,8.60 previous
• US Initial Jobless Claims 239K,240K forecast,248K previous
• US Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg. 234.25K, 229.63K forecast,231.00K previous
• US Continuing Jobless Claims 1,716K,1,700K forecast,1,684K previous
• US Leading Index (MoM) -0.4%,-0.4% forecast,-0.7% previous
• US 4-Week Bill Auction 5.280%,5.280% previous
• US 8-Week Bill Auction5.280%, 5.280% previous
• US Fed's Balance Sheet 8,146B, 8,208B previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
• 23:30 Japan Jul CPI, n.s.a (MoM) 0.1% previous
• 23:30 Japan Jul National Core CPI (YoY) 3.1% forecast, 3.3% previous
• 23:30 Japan Jul National CPI (YoY) 2.5% forecast,3.3% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
• No Significant Events Ahead
Currency Summaries
EUR/USD: The euro dipped against dollar on Thursday as a raft of strong economic data this week stokes concerns the Fed could keep interest rates at the current level for longer. Minutes from the Fed's July meeting released on Wednesday showed most policymakers prioritizing the battle against inflation, adding to uncertainty about the central bank's interest rate path.A majority of traders expect the Federal Reserve to keep rates unchanged in September, though bets of a pause have slipped to 86.5% from about 89% a week earlier, according to CME Group's Fedwatch tool. the dollar index, which tracks the greenback versus a basket of six currencies, was relatively flat, climbing 0.02% to 103.458.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0904(5DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0915(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0858(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0825(Lower BB).
GBP/USD: The pound rose slightly against the dollar on Thursday as traders factored in higher Bank of England interest rate expectations in light of recent inflation and wage data, while awaiting retail data due Friday. Interest rate expectations have ticked higher this week after data on Tuesday showed British wage growth at a record high, and the latest inflation figures showed core prices coming in hotter than expected on Wednesday. Traders are predicting around an 88% chance of a 25 basis point hike from the BoE at its next meeting on Sept. 21 .The week will wrap up with UK retail sales for July, with traders looking for signs of how well consumption is holding up.A slump in retail sales is expected, an outcome that will likely weigh on the pound in the short term. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2762(21DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2816(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2686(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2628(Lower BB).
USD/CAD: The Canadian dollar weakened to its lowest level in more than two months against its U.S. counterpart on Thursday as the prospect of U.S. interest rates remaining at a high level for longer than previously expected bolstered the greenback. Upbeat U.S. economic data kept alive fears of interest rates remaining higher for longer, supporting the U.S. dollar and weighing on Wall Street as well as risk-sensitive currencies such as the loonie. One positive for the loonie was a rally in the price of oil, one of Canada’s major exports. U.S. crude oil futures settled 1.3% higher at $80.39 a barrel.The loonie was trading 0.1% lower at 1.3545 to the greenback , after touching its weakest level since June 1 at 1.3552. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3556 (23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3591(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3514(5DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3479 (38.2%fib).
USD/JPY: The dollar edged lower on Thursday but remained near recent high against yen as strong economic data raised investor expectations that the Federal Reserve will hold rates higher for longer. Investors have adjusted their interest rate expectations over the past few weeks to account for the likelihood that the U.S. central bank may not cut rates next year as much as previously expected, and that it may stop cutting rates at a higher level. Economic releases this week, including a very strong retail sales report for July, have beaten economists' expectations. This has helped dollar gain against yen this week. Strong resistance can be seen at 146.43(23.6%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 147.00(Psychological level).On the downside, immediate support is seen 145.05(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 144.53(11DMA)
Equities Recap
European shares slipped on Thursday as downbeat earnings and BAE Systems weighed,while investors were in risk-off mode after minutes from the U.S. Federal Reserve's July meeting hinted at rates remaining higher for longer.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed down by 0.63 percent, Germany's Dax ended down by 0.71 percent, France’s CAC finished the day down by 0.94 percent.
Wall Street's main indexes closed lower after choppy trading on Thursday as losses in healthcare stocks eclipsed gains in Cisco and energy stocks, while upbeat economic data kept alive fears of interest rates remaining higher for longer.
Dow Jones closed down by 0.84 percent, S&P 500 ended down by 0.77 percent, Nasdaq finished the day down by 1.77 percent.
Treasuries Recap
Longer-dated U.S. Treasury yields hit a 10-month high Thursday as Wall Street accelerated losses into the close and investors grappled with the potential for longer-lasting high interest rates and a struggling Chinese economy.
Benchmark 10-year yields reached 4.312% in trading and tested October's 4.338%, before moving lower to 4.29%. The 30-year yield hit 12-year highs.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices slipped to a five-month low on Thursday as factors such as rising Treasury yields, a firm dollar and a hawkish view on interest rates from Federal Reserve officials weighed on investor sentiment.
Spot gold was down 0.3% at $1,886.10 per ounce by 1:53 p.m. EDT (1753 GMT), its lowest level since March 13.U.S. gold futures settled 0.7% lower at $1,915.20
Oil prices rose on Thursday after falling for three straight sessions, as the dollar weakened and China's central bank sought to bolster the property market and wider economy.
Brent crude futures rose 67 cents, or 0.8%, to $84.12 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI) was up $1.01, or 1.3%, at $80.93 a barrel.