Posted at 17 August 2023 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•Spanish Trade Balance -2.36B, -4.31B forecast,-3.11B previous
•EU Jun Trade Balance 23.0B, 18.3B forecast,-0.3B previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•12:30 Canada Jun Foreign Securities Purchases by Canadians -2.78B previous
•12:30 US Aug Philly Fed Business Conditions 31.6 forecast,29.1 previous
•12:30 US Aug Philly Fed Prices Paid 10.10 forecast,9.50 previous
•12:30 US Aug Philly Fed New Orders -13.5 forecast,-15.9 previous
•12:30 US Aug Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index -10.0 forecast,-13.5 previous
•12:30 US Aug Philly Fed Employment -0.7 forecast,-1.0 previous
•12:30 Canada Jun Foreign Securities Purchases 11.16B previous
•12:30 US Aug Philly Fed CAPEX Index 9.20 forecast,8.60 previous
•12:30 US Initial Jobless Claims 240K forecast,248K previous
•12:30 US Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg. 229.63K forecast,231.00K previous
•12:30 US Continuing Jobless Claims 1,700K forecast,1,684K previous
•14:00 US Leading Index (MoM) -0.4% forecast,-0.7% previous
•15:30 US 4-Week Bill Auction 5.280% previous
•15:30 US 8-Week Bill Auction 5.280% previous
•20:30 US Fed's Balance Sheet 8,208B previous
•20:30 US Reserve Balances with Federal Reserve Banks 3.229T previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
No events ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro edged higher against dollar on Thursday as investors were in risk-off mode after minutes from the U.S. Federal Reserve's July meeting hinted at rates remaining higher for longer. The U.S. central bank hiked rates by 25 basis points at the July meeting after standing pat in June. Fed Chair Jerome Powell said at the time the economy still needed to slow and the labor market to weaken for inflation to credibly return to the U.S. central bank’s 2% target. China's economy was the other topic on investors' minds as a series of economic data and ructions in the property sector have laid bare the stumbling post-pandemic recovery. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0904(5DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0915(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0858(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0825(Lower BB).
GBP/USD: The pound rose slightly against the dollar on Thursday as traders factored in higher Bank of England interest rate expectations in light of recent inflation and wage data, while awaiting retail data due Friday. The pound rose slightly against the dollar on Thursday as traders factored in higher Bank of England interest rate expectations in light of recent inflation and wage data, while awaiting retail data due Friday. Traders are predicting around an 88% chance of a 25 basis point hike from the BoE at its next meeting on Sept. 21 .So far this week, the pound is up 0.4% against the dollar and up 1% against the euro. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2762(21DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2816(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2686(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2628(Lower BB).
USD/CHF: The dollar dipped against the Swiss franc on Thursday as fears over China’s sluggish economic recovery and concerns that the Federal Reserve may still raise interest rates rattled investors. U.S. retail sales data came out strong earlier this week, and traders are also watching the Atlanta Federal Reserve’s GDPNow forecast model, which, showed the U.S. economy is likely to be growing at a 5.8% annualised rate in the third quarter. Expectations for U.S. peak rates have not changed significantly, however, instead the changes in yields have been driven by changes in medium term rate expectations. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.8800(Psychological level), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.8833 (Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.8754(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.8728(21DMA).
USD/JPY: The dollar pushed the yen deeper into intervention territory on Thursday as a resilient U.S. economy underscored the need for higher-for-longer interest rates. The greenback has drawn support from a recent run of U.S. economic data reinforcing the view that interest rates will remain high for some time. Data on Wednesday showed that U.S. single-family home building surged in July and permits for future construction rose, while a separate report said production at U.S. factories unexpectedly rebounded last month. Minutes of the Fed's July policy meeting showed officials were divided over the need for more rate hikes last month, citing the risks to the economy if rates were pushed too far. Strong resistance can be seen at 146.76(23.6%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 147.04(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen 145.65(5DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 144.79(38.2%fib)
Equities Recap
European shares fell on Thursday as BAE dragged defence firms, Fed minutes sour sentiment.
At (GMT 12:15 ),UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading down at 0.20 percent, Germany's Dax was down by 0.05 percent, France’s CAC was down by 0.05 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold hit a five-month low on Thursday after data pointed to a resilient U.S. economy and raised prospects that the Federal Reserve may hike interest rates once more this year.
Spot gold edged up 0.2% to $1,893.30 per ounce by 0945 GMT, as some traders bought on the dips, but hovered near its weakest level since March 15 at $1,888.30.
Oil prices crept up on Thursday after China's central bank sought to stem the rising tide of pessimism over the country's property market and wider economy.
Brent crude futures rose 67 cents to $84.12 a barrel by 1058 GMT and U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI) was up 63 cents at $80.01.