Posted at 16 August 2023 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•UK Jul Core CPI (YoY) 6.9%, 6.8% forecast,6.9% previous
•UK Jul Core RPI (YoY) 7.9%,8.3% forecast,9.6% previous
•UK Jul CPI (MoM) -0.4%,-0.5% forecast,0.1% previous
•UK Jul CPI, n.s.a 130.90,131.50 previous
•UK Jul CPI (YoY) 6.8%,6.8% forecast,7.9% previous
•UK Jul RPI (YoY) 9.0%, 9.0% forecast,10.7% previous
•UK Jul RPI (MoM) -0.6%,-0.7% forecast,0.3% previous
•UK Jul PPI Output (YoY) -0.8%, -1.3% forecast,0.1% previous
•UK Jul PPI Input (YoY) -3.3%,-3.1% forecast,-2.7% previous
•UK Jul Core PPI Output (YoY) 2.3%,1.6% forecast,3.0% previous
•UK Jul Core PPI Output (MoM) 0.1%,-0.3% forecast,-0.2% previous
•UK Jul PPI Input (MoM) -0.4%, 0.0% forecast,-1.3% previous
•EU Employment Overall (Q2) 166,745.3K, 166,419.1K previous
•EU GDP (YoY) (Q2)0.6%,0.6% forecast,1.1% previous
•EU Jun Industrial Production (YoY) -1.2%,-4.2% forecast,-2.2% previous
•EU Jun Industrial Production (MoM) 0.5%,-0.1% forecast,0.2% previous
•EU GDP (QoQ) 0.3%,0.3% forecast, 0.0% previous
•EU Employment Change (QoQ) 0.2%,0.2% forecast,0.6% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•12:30 US Jul Housing Starts (MoM) 2.7% forecast,-8.0% previous
•12:30 US Jul Housing Starts 1.448M forecast,1.434M previous
•12:30 US Jul Building Permits (MoM) -1.7% forecast-3.7% previous
•12:30 US Jul Building Permits 1.463M forecast,1.441M previous
•12:30 Canada Jul Wholesale Sales (MoM) -4.2% forecast,3.5% previous
•13:15 US Jul Manufacturing Production (MoM)0.0% forecast,-0.3% previous
•13:15 US Jul Industrial Production (YoY) -0.10% forecast,-0.43%previous
•13:15 US Jul Capacity Utilization Rate 79.1% forecast,78.9% previous
•13:15 US Jul Industrial Production (MoM) 0.3% forecast,-0.5% previous
•14:30 US Cushing Crude Oil Inventories 0.131M forecast,0.159M previous
•14:30 US Crude Oil Inventories -2.320M forecast,5.851M previous
•14:30 US EIA Refinery Crude Runs (WoW)0.062M previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
•18:00 US FOMC Meeting Minutes
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro was little against dollar on Wednesday on fears that central banks might tighten more than expected to tame sticky inflation. Chinese economic data and the absence of meaningful stimulus from Beijing continued to weigh on investor sentiment. Markets expected the Federal Reserve tightening cycle to have peaked and the European Central Bank to possibly raise by a further 25 basis points by year-end, but recent economic data, including Tuesday’s retail sales numbers from the U.S., cast a shadow on these forecasts. The euro was up about a quarter of a percent at $1.0932. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0928(5DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0956(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0877(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0831(Lower BB).
GBP/USD: The British pound was set for its biggest one-day rise against the dollar in almost three weeks on Wednesday, as the latest UK inflation numbers reinforced bets that the Bank of England will likely hike interest rates again. Consumer price inflation slowed to 6.8% in July. But core inflation, which strips out volatile food and energy prices, remained at 6.9% in July, flat versus the June reading, and higher than economist expectations for a reading of 6.8%.Services inflation picked up to 7.4% from 7.2% in June. Sterling surged 0.35% against the dollar to $1.2756, after hitting an almost one-week high of $1.2767 and was set for its biggest one-day jump since July 28. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2773(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2784(21DMA).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2665(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2628(Lower BB).
USD/CHF: The dollar strengthened against the Swiss franc on Wednesday as strong U.S. consumer spending data fuelling speculation that the Federal Reserve was not done with its interest rate hiking cycle. U.S. retail sales increased more than expected in July, suggesting the economy continued to expand early in the third quarter while keeping a recession at bay.Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari on Tuesday said that while the U.S. central bank has made some progress in its inflation fight, interest rates may still need to go higher to finish the job.Later in the day, investors will scan minutes from the Fed’s July policy meeting to gauge its upcoming rate strategy. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.8800(Psychological level), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.8833 (23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.8765(5DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 0.8681(23.6%fib).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar strengthened against Japanese yen on Wednesday as greenback was boosted on expectations the Federal Reserve is not yet finished with its rapid monetary tightening cycle. Investors have bought the safe-haven dollar on the back of strong U.S. economic data and rising concerns about China. Investors will get a sense of the Fed's thinking on interest rates at 1800 GMT (2 p.m. ET), when the minutes from July's decision are released. The Fed raised rates by 25 basis points to a 5.25% to 5.5% range at the meeting. Strong resistance can be seen at 146.07(23.6%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 146.86(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen 145.37(5DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 143.97(38.2%fib)
Equities Recap
European shares reversed earlier losses on Wednesday, helped by a jump in insurers after positive results from British firms Aviva and Admiral Group and by easing bond yields.
At (GMT 12:15 ),UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading down at 0.48 percent, Germany's Dax was up by 0.14 percent, France’s CAC was up by 0.04 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold clawed higher on Wednesday on a weaker dollar and bond yields, recovering some ground after retreating below the key $1,900 level in the last session following robust U.S. economic data.
Spot gold edged up 0.2%, to $1,905.25 per ounce, by 0946 GMT, while U.S. gold futures were up 0.1%, at 1,936.60.
Oil prices were little changed on Wednesday as investors weighed worries about China's embattled economy against expectations of tighter supply in the United States.
Brent crude futures slipped 7 cents to $84.82 a barrel by 1011 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI) fell 8 cents to $81.91 a barrel.