Posted at 15 August 2023 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•UK Jun Employment Change 3M/3M (MoM) -66K, 75K forecast,102K previous
•Sweden Jul CPI (YoY) 9.3%, 9.3% forecast,9.3% previous
•UK Jun Unemployment Rate 4.2%,4.0% forecast,4.0% previous
•UK Jun Average Earnings Index +Bonus 8.2%,7.3% forecast,6.9% previous
•UK Jun Average Earnings ex Bonus 7.8%,7.4% forecast,7.3% previous
•UK Jul Claimant Count Change 29.0K,-7.3K forecast,25.7K previous
•UK Labour Productivity 0.7%, -1.4% previous
•Swiss Jul PPI (MoM )-0.1%,0.2% forecast,0.0% previous
•German Aug ZEW Economic Sentiment -12.3,-14.7 forecast,-14.7 previous
•German Aug ZEW Current Conditions -71.3,-63.0 forecast,-59.5 previous
•EU Aug EU ZEW Economic Sentiment -5.5 ,-12.0 forecast,-12.2 previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
• 12:30 Canada Jul Core CPI (MoM) 0.4% forecast,-0.1% previous
• 12:30 Canada Jul Core CPI (YoY) 2.8% forecast,3.2% previous
• 12:30 Canada Jul CPI (MoM) 0.3% forecast,0.1% previous
• 12:30 US Jul Retail Sales (MoM) 0.4% forecast, 0.2% previous
• 12:30 US Jul Retail Control (MoM) 0.2% forecast,0.6% previous
• 12:30 US Jul Core Retail Sales (MoM) -0.3% forecast,0.2% previous
• 12:30 US Jul Retail Sales Ex Gas/Autos (MoM) 0.1% forecast,0.3% previous
• 12:30 US Jul Export Price Index (MoM) 0.2% forecast, -0.9% previous
• 12:30 US Jul Import Price Index (MoM) 0.2% forecast,-0.2% previous
• 12:30 Canada Jul CPI (YoY) 3.0% forecast,2.8% previous
• 12:30 US Jul Retail Sales (YoY) 1.50% forecast,1.49% previous
• 12:30 Canada Jun Manufacturing Sales (MoM) -2.0% forecast,1.2% previous
• 12:30 US Aug NY Empire State Manufacturing Index -1.00 forecast,1.10 previous
• 12:30 Canada Jul Median CPI (YoY) 3.7% forecast,3.9% previous
• 12:30 Canada Jul Trimmed CPI (YoY) 3.4% forecast,3.7% previous
• 12:30 Canada Jul Common CPI (YoY) 4.7% forecast,5.1% previous
• 12:30 US Import Price Index (YoY)-6.5% forecast,-6.1% previous
• 12:30 US Export Price Index (YoY)-14.1% forecast,-12.0% previous
• 12:55 US Redbook (YoY)0.3% previous
•14:00 US Jun Retail Inventories Ex Auto 0.4% forecast,-0.1% previous
•14:00 US Jun Business Inventories (MoM) 0.1% forecast,0.2% previous
•14:00 US Aug NAHB Housing Market Index 56 forecast,56 previous
•15:00 New Zealand Global DairyTrade Price Index -0.7% forecast ,-4.3% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
•15:00 US FOMC Member Kashkari Speaks
Currency forecast
EUR/USD: The euro strengthened against dollar on Tuesday after German investor morale brightens unexpectedly in August. German investor morale improved unexpectedly in August, the ZEW economic research institute said on Tuesday, but it is still firmly in negative territory as the mood in Europe's largest economy remains clouded.ZEW's economic sentiment index rose to -12.3 points from -14.7 points in July. Analysts polled had expected sentiment to stagnate in August with a reading of -14.7. The euro was up about a quarter of a percent at $1.0932. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0946(5DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0975(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0923(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0856(Lower BB).
GBP/USD: Sterling rose on Tuesday after data showed British basic wages grew at a record pace, adding to the Bank of England's inflation worries. The pound was last 0.2% higher at $1.2705, after rising as high as $1.2731 following data showing British wages excluding bonuses were 7.8% higher than a year earlier in the three months to June. That represented the highest annual growth rate since comparable records began in 2001.The UK unemployment rate, however, unexpectedly rose to 4.2% from 4.0%, but money market traders still expect the Bank of England to raise rates by at least 25 basis points next month on worries high pay growth will lead to second round effects on inflation. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2732(Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2772(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2696(5DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2647(38.2%fib).
USD/CHF: The dollar strengthened against the Swiss franc on Tuesday as focus shifted to U.S. retail sales data due at 1230 GMT that will show how consumer spending held up in July against higher rates. The Commerce Department's report is expected to show retail sales rose 0.4% last month after climbing 0.2% in June, likely adding to evidence that the U.S. economy remains on a strong footing. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.8800(Psychological level), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.8833 (23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.8765(5DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 0.8681(23.6%fib).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar strengthened against Japanese yen on Tuesday as attention turned towards U.S. retail sales data due later in the day. Investors will also monitor comments from Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari due later in the day for more clarity on the outlook for interest rates. Traders' odds of a pause on hikes by the Fed at its September meeting currently stand at 89%, with a majority betting on rates to stay at that level for the rest of the year, according to CME Group's Fedwatch tool. Strong resistance can be seen at 145.69(23.6%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 146.00(Psychological level).On the downside, immediate support is seen 144.89(5DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 144.57(38.2%fib)
Equities Recap
European stocks fell as UK and Swedish stocks led declines among European peers after inflation data from both countries triggered worries about high interest rates.
At (GMT 12:15 ),UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading down at 1.33 percent, Germany's Dax was down by 0.95 percent, France’s CAC was down by 1.14 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices hovered near six-week lows on Tuesday as expectations U.S. interest rates are likely to stay higher for longer drove up bond yields.
Spot gold was down 0.3% at $1,901.90 per ounce by 1110 GMT, having hit its lowest level in 1-1/2 months. U.S. gold futures fell 0.5% to $1,933.80.
Oil prices edged lower on Tuesday on sluggish Chinese economic figures coupled with fears that Beijing's unexpected cut in key policy rates was not substantial enough to rejuvenate the country's sputtering post-pandemic recovery.
Brent crude futures dipped 73 cents to $85.48 per barrel by 1151 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude slipped 91 cents to $81.6 a barrel.