Posted at 14 August 2023 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•Finnish Jul CPI (YoY) 6.5%, 6.3%previous
•German Jul WPI (MoM) -0.2%, -1.4% forecast,-0.2% previous
•German Jul German WPI (YoY) -2.8%,-2.6% forecast,-2.9% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•13:30 French 3-Month BTF Auction 3.617% previous
•13:30 French 6-Month BTF Auction 3.585% previous
•13:30 French 12-Month BTF Auction 3.574% previous
•14:30 Canada BoC Senior Loan Officer Survey (Q2) 11.3 previous
•15:00 US Consumer Inflation Expectations 3.8% previous
•15:30 US 3-Month Bill Auction 5.290% previous
•15:30 US 6-Month Bill Auction 5.265% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
•No events ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro declined on Monday as investors sought a safe haven dollar on Monday as concerns about China's economy. Investors have been buying the safe-haven dollar over concerns about the health of the global economy, particularly China. Economic data could move currencies later in the week. Investors will scrutinise Chinese industrial output and consumer spending data on Tuesday, before minutes from the latest U.S. Federal Reserve meeting on Wednesday. A bunch of economic data from Eurozone is also slated for this week, including a flash estimate of euro-zone second-quarter GDP data, fresh euro-zone inflation data and British consumer prices data. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0946(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0967 (9DMA).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0906(Daily low), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0892(50%fib).
GBP/USD: The pound ticked a fraction higher against the dollar on Monday as traders stayed focused on key data due this week for hints on the Bank of England’s future interest rate hike trajectory. Figures on Friday from the Office for National Statistics showed British economic output growing by 0.5% in June, above expectations of economists in a poll for 0.2% growth. Traders are now awaiting wage and employment data due at 0600 GMT on Tuesday for more direction on the central bank’s next move. At 1100 GMT, sterling was up 0.07% against the dollar at $1.2706. The euro fell against the pound, dropping 0.05%. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2730(5DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2765(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2639(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2604(Lower BB).
USD/CHF: The dollar strengthened against the Swiss franc on Monday ahead of the Federal Reserve's July meeting minutes this week that could shed light on the appetite for higher interest rates. U.S. consumer prices increased moderately in July while producer prices rose slightly more than expected, consistent with a moderation in inflationary pressures that could persuade the Fed to leave interest rates unchanged next month. Markets were awaiting U.S. retail sales figures on Tuesday, followed by the minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) July meeting on Wednesday. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.8805(Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.8816(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.8752(5DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 0.8681(23.6%fib).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar strengthened against Japanese yen on Monday to hit highest level against the yen since November, breaching the key 145 mark before regaining ground as traders looked for clues of possible intervention. The Bank of Japan has stuck to its ultra-loose monetary policy as other global central banks hiked interest rates, making returns in other countries look more attractive and weighing heavily on the yen.Japan intervened in currency markets last September when the dollar rose past 145 yen, prompting the Ministry of Finance (MOF) to buy the yen and push the pair back to around 140 yen. The yen is down nearly 10% against the dollar for the year. Strong resistance can be seen at 145.29(Daily high) an upside break can trigger rise towards 145.68(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen 144.61(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 144.44(5DMA)
Equities Recap
European shares inched higher in early trading on Monday, led by advances in defensive sectors including healthcare and telecoms, while falls in miners on concerns over China's embattled property sector kept gains in check.
At (GMT 13:10 ),UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading down at 0.47 percent, Germany's Dax was up by 0.26 percent, France’s CAC was down by 0.09 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices fell to their lowest level in more than five weeks on Monday, as the dollar and bond yields strengthened ahead of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s July meeting minutes this week that could guide expectations on future interest rates.
Spot gold was little changed at $1,914.26 per ounce, as of 0800 GMT, hitting its lowest level since July 7. U.S. gold futures were flat at $1,946.30.
Oil prices stabilised on Monday as investors weighed concerns about China's faltering economic recovery and a stronger dollar against seven weeks of gains on tightening supply from OPEC+ output cuts.
Brent crude futures slipped 35 cents to $86.46 a barrel by 1027 GMT while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude edged lower by 38 cents to $82.81 a barrel.