Posted at 11 August 2023 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•UK Jun Industrial Production (MoM) 1.8%,0.1%forecast,-0.6%previous
•UK GDP (YoY) (Q2)0.4%,0.2% forecast,0.2% previous
•UK Jun Manufacturing Production (MoM) 2.4%,0.2% forecast,-0.2% previous
•UK Business Investment (YoY) (Q2)6.7%,8.1% forecast,5.8% previous
•UK Jun Industrial Production (YoY) 0.7%,-1.1% forecast,-2.3% previous
•UK Jun Business Investment (QoQ) (Q2)3.4%,0.8% forecast,3.3% previous
•UK Jun GDP (MoM 0.5%,0.2% forecast,-0.1% previous
•UK Jun Monthly GDP 3M/3M Change 0.2%,0.0% forecast,0.0% previous
•UK Jun Manufacturing Production (YoY) 3.1%,0.3% forecast,-1.2% previous
•UK Jun GDP (YoY) 0.9%,0.5% forecast,-0.4% previous
•UK Jun Trade Balance -15.46B, -16.40B forecast,-18.72B previous
•UK Jun Trade Balance Non-EU -2.77B, -6.39B forecast,-6.76B previous
•UK GDP (QoQ) (Q2)0.2%,0.0% forecast, 0.1% previous
•France Jul CPI (MoM) 0.10% forecast, 0.20% previous
•France Jul CPI (MoM) 0.1%,0.0% forecast,0.2% previous
•France Jul CPI (YoY) 4.30%, 4.30% previous
•Spanish Jul HICP (YoY) 2.1%, 2.1% forecast,1.6% previous
•Spanish Jul Spanish CPI (YoY) 2.3%, 2.3% forecast,1.9% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•12:30 US Jul PPI (MoM) 0.2% forecast,0.1% previous
•12:30 US Jul PPI (YoY) 0.7% forecast, 0.1% previous
•12:30 US Jul Core PPI (MoM) 0.2% forecast, 0.1% previous
•12:30 US Jul Core PPI (YoY) 2.3% forecast, 2.4% previous
•12:30 US Jul PPI ex. Food/Energy/Transport (MoM) 0.1% forecast,0.1% previous
•12:30 US PPI ex. Food/Energy/Transport (YoY) 2.6% previous
•14:00 US Aug Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations 3.0% forecast,3.0% previous
•14:00 US Aug Michigan Inflation Expectations 3.8% forecast,3.4% previous
•14:00 US Aug Michigan Consumer Sentiment 71.0 forecast,71.6 previous
•14:00 US Michigan Consumer Expectations 68.1 forecast,68.3 previous
•14:00 US Aug Michigan Current Conditions 76.9 forecast,76.6 previous
•17:00 U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count 525 previous
•17:00 U.S. Baker Hughes Total Rig Count 659 previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Release(GMT)
•No events ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro edged higher on Friday but gains were limited as investors were cautious after U.S. inflation data and waited more U.S. numbers later in the session. The consumer price index rose 0.2% last month, the same increase as in June, prompting initial relief in markets on Thursday as some saw the data as lessening the chance of another Federal Reserve rate hike next month. Investor optimism was kept in check by San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President Mary Daly saying that more progress was needed before she would feel comfortable the Fed has done enough to combat inflation. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1032(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1107(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0991(5DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0945(38.2%fib).
GBP/USD: The pound broke three straight days of losses on Friday after data showed the British economy grew more than expected in June, which boosted sterling slightly against the dollar and the euro.British economic output grew by 0.5% in June, figures from the Office for National Statistics showed on Friday, above expectations in a Reuters poll of economists which had forecast growth of 0.2%.The stronger than expected showing helped to justify bets that the Bank of England will keep on raising interest rates, given the central bank stressed this month that resilience in the economy was one of the factors that would underpin its judgement.Sterling was last up 0.24% against the dollar at $1.2707, a touch higher than before the data and outperforming other G10 currencies. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2730(5DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2784(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2662(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2611(Lower BB).
USD/CHF: The dollar dipped against the Swiss franc on Friday as traders wagered that the Federal Reserve's rate hike cycle could be over after data showed U.S. consumer prices increased moderately in July, though a senior Fed official cautioned against taking a premature view. The U.S. consumer price index (CPI) gained 0.2% last month, matching June’s increase. The annualized rate climbed 3.2%, but was less than the Reuters forecast of 3.3%. Focus now shifts to U.S. producer prices and consumer sentiment data due later in the day. The dollar index , which measures the U.S. currency against six others, eased 0.1% to 102.50 on Friday, but was still set for a fourth weekly gain. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.8802(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.8816(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.8752(5DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 0.8681(23.6%fib).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar steadied against Japanese yen on Friday after data showed U.S. inflation did not pick up as strongly as expected in July, reinforcing the existing view among investors that the Federal Reserve is unlikely to raise rates much more. The dollar was last at 144.58 yen having earlier climbed as high as 144.89 yen , its highest since June 30 when it briefly breached 145, a level at which investors think the Bank of Japan might start warning of intervention.Japan intervened in currency markets last September when the dollar rose past 145 yen, which prompted the Ministry of Finance to buy the yen and push the pair back to around 140 yen. The yen is down over 9% against the dollar for the year. Strong resistance can be seen at 144.54(23.6%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 145.00(Psychological level).On the downside, immediate support is seen 143.76(5DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 142.77(38.2%fib)
Equities Recap
European stock indexes fell on Friday , after data the previous session showed U.S. consumer prices increased moderately in July, which kept investors cautious ahead of more U.S. numbers later in the session.
At (GMT 12:10 ),UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading down at 1.12 percent, Germany's Dax was down by 0.69 percent, France’s CAC was down by 1.01 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices on Friday were on track for their worst week in seven, hurt by an overall stronger dollar and elevated bond yields as investors digested the latest U.S. inflation numbers and awaited for more economic data later in the day.
Spot gold rose 0.3% to $1,917.73 per ounce by 1037 GMT, after touching its lowest level since July 7 earlier. U.S. gold futures edged up 0.1% to $1,950.20.
Oil prices gained ground on Friday amid optimistic demand forecasts from the OPEC producer group and the International Energy Agency (IEA).
Brent crude was up 49 cents, or 0.6%, at $86.89 a barrel at 1118 GMT while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were up 49 cents, or 0.6%, at $83.31.