Posted at 10 August 2023 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
• Sweden Industrial Production (YoY)-2.8%, 3.8% previous
• Sweden Industrial Production (MoM) -5.5%, 0.3% previous
• Italian Jul HICP (YoY) 6.3%,6.4% forecast,6.7% previous
• Italian Jul Italian CPI (MoM) 0.0%,0.1% forecast,0.0% previous
•Irish Jul HICP (MoM) 0.2%, 0.2% forecast,0.8% previous
•Irish Jul Irish HICP (YoY) 4.6%,4.6% forecast,.8% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•12:30 US Jul Real Earnings (MoM) -0.1% forecast,0.5% previous
•12:30 US Jul CPI (MoM) 0.2% forecast,0.2% previous
•12:30 US Jul Core CPI (YoY) 4.8% forecast,4.8% previous
•12:30 US Jul Core CPI (MoM) 0.2% forecast,0.2% previous
•12:30 US CPI (YoY) 3.3% forecast,3.0% previous
•12:30 US Jul CPI Index, n.s.a. 305.84 forecast, 305.11 previous
•12:30 US Jul Core CPI Index 308.33 forecast,308.31 previous
•12:30 US Jul CPI, n.s.a (MoM) 0.32% previous
•12:30 US Jul CPI Index, s.a 303.84 previous
•12:30 US Initial Jobless Claims 230K forecast,227K previous
•12:30 US Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg. 231.01K forecast,228.25K previous,
•12:30 US Continuing Jobless Claims 1,710K forecast,1,700K previous
•14:30 US Natural Gas Storage 25B forecast, 14B previous
•15:00 US Jul Cleveland CPI (MoM) 0.4% forecast,0.4% previous
•15:30 US 8-Week Bill Auction 5.285% previous
•15:30 US 4-Week Bill Auction 5.275% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
•No significant events
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro strengthened on Thursday as dollar slipped ahead of U.S. inflation data that could influence the Federal Reserve's policy path. All eyes are on July consumer prices data from the United States on Thursday, which should provide a steer on the U.S. Federal Reserve's future monetary policy.U.S. headline inflation data is expected to pick up slightly to an annual 3.3% in July, while the core rate is forecast at 4.8%. the dollar index , which measures the U.S. currency against six peers, eased 0.4%. The euro rose 0.48% to $1.1028.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1032(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1107(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0991(5DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0945(38.2%fib).
GBP/USD: Sterling rose against a weakening dollar ahead of the release of U.S. CPI inflation data on Thursday, while UK housing prices added to evidence that the outlook for the British economy remains grim.Economists polled by expect July U.S. consumer price inflation to have risen slightly to an annual 3.3%, while the core rate, which excludes the volatile food and energy segments, is forecast to rise 0.2% in July, for an annual gain of 4.8%.The key data could help firm market expectations that the Federal Reserve has finished raising interest rates, if inflation moderates and the prospect of a soft landing increases. The pound was 0.4% higher against the dollar at $1.2771 . Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2781(5DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2830(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2704(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2607(Lower BB).
USD/CHF: The dollar dipped against the Swiss franc on Thursday ahead of U.S. inflation data that will shape the Fed's policy direction. U.S. headline consumer inflation is forecast to pick up slightly in July to an annual 3.3% from 3.0% in June, while the core rate, which excludes the volatile food and energy segments, is forecast to stay at 4.8% in annual terms.Markets are pricing in a more than 50% chance that the Fed is done with interest rate hikes this year as inflation has moderated, but those bets could change depending on Thursday's CPI figures. The Swiss franc, the best-performing G10 currency against the dollar this year, firmed. The dollar was down 0.5% at 0.873 francs. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.8743(9DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.8769(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.8724(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.8680(61.8%fib).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar steadied against Japanese yen on Thursday but gains were limited head of U.S. inflation data that could influence the Federal Reserve's policy path.Economists polled by Reuters expect July U.S. consumer price inflation to rise slightly to an annual 3.3%, while the core rate, which excludes the volatile food and energy segments, is forecast to rise 0.2% in July, for an annual gain of 4.8%. Markets are pricing in a more than 50% chance that the Fed is done with interest rate hikes this year, the CME FedWatch tool shows, as inflation moderates and the prospect of a soft landing increases. Strong resistance can be seen at 144.07(23.6%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 144.88(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen 142.93(5DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 142.20(38.2%fib)
Equities Recap
European stock markets rose on Thursday, helped by gains in luxury stocks after China eased some pandemic-era restrictions, while the dollar slipped ahead of U.S. inflation data that could influence the Federal Reserve's policy path.
At (GMT 12:10 ),UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading up at 0.08 percent, Germany's Dax was down by 0.43 percent, France’s CAC was up by 0.93 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold firmed on Thursday buoyed by a softer dollar but was hemmed into a relatively tight range as traders positioned for U.S. inflation readings that could steer the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy.
Spot gold rose 0.4% to $1,921.32 per ounce by 1125 GMT, bouncing up slightly after touching its lowest level since July 10 on Wednesday. U.S. gold futures edged up 0.2% to $1,954.60.
Oil prices stabilised on Thursday as investor caution dominated ahead of inflation data expected to offer clues on U.S. interest rates.
Brent crude dipped 12 cents to $87.43 a barrel by 0955 GMT while West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI) edged down by 21 cents to $84.19.