Posted at 08 August 2023 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•German Jul CPI (MoM) 0.3%, 0.3%, forecast,0.3% previous
•German Jul German CPI (YoY) 6.2%,6.2% forecast,6.4% previous
•German Jul HICP (MoM) 0.5%, 0.5% forecast,0.4% previous
•French Jun Current Account 0.80B,-0.40B forecast,-0.60B previous
•French Jun French Exports 52.1B,52.3B previous
•French Jun French Imports 58.8B forecast, 60.8B previous
•French Jun Trade Balance -6.7B,-8.0B forecast,-8.4B previous
•US Imports 313.00B, 316.10B previous
•US Exports 247.50B, 247.10B previous
•Canada Jun Trade Balance -3.73B,-2.90B forecast,-3.44B previous
•Canada Jun Imports 64.43B,64.97B previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•12:55 US Redbook (YoY) 0.1% previous
•14:00 US Jun Wholesale Inventories (MoM) -0.3% forecast,-0.3% previous
•14:00 US Jun Wholesale Trade Sales (MoM) 0.3% forecast,-0.2% previous
•14:00 US IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism 43.0 forecast,41.3 previous
•15:30 US 52-Week Bill Auction 5.130% previous
•16:00 US EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook
•17:00 US 3-Year Note Auction 4.534% previous
•20:30 US API Weekly Crude Oil Stock -15.400M previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
•No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro dipped against dollar on Monday after showed German inflation eased in July.German inflation eased in July, the federal statistics office said on Tuesday, confirming preliminary data.German consumer prices, harmonised to compare with other European Union countries, increased by 6.5% on the year in July. This follows a 6.8% increase in June. All eyes are now on Thursday’s U.S. inflation data, where expectations are for core consumer prices in the United States to have risen 4.8% on an annual basis in July. The euro dropped 0.5% to $1.0953. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.09768(5DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1010(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0941(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0855( (50%fib).
GBP/USD: The pound fell on Tuesday, but held above last week's one-month lows, after a survey showed British retailers logged their slowest sales growth in 11 months in July, thanks to rainy weather and high inflation. The British Retail Consortium (BRC) said retail sales values rose by 1.5% compared with July last year, less than half the 12-month average growth rate of 3.9% and down from this year's peak of 5.2% in February.The data is not adjusted for inflation so July's small rise in spending represented a fall in terms of sales volumes.Sterling was last down 0.2% at $1.2757. Against the euro, the pound fell 0.1% to 86.10 pence. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2727(5DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2702(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2699(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2618(50%fib).
USD/CHF: The dollar strengthened against the Swiss franc on Tuesday as the greenback regained some footing, with investors awaiting U.S. inflation numbers due this week for clarity on whether more rate hikes are on the table. A hotter-than-expected CPI number on Thursday could raise the possibility of another rate hike when Fed officials meet again in September. U.S. inflation likely accelerated slightly to 3.3% year on year in July, while the core rate was likely unchanged at 4.8%, according to a poll of economists. Headline inflation peaked at 9.1% in June 2022 but stood at 3% in June 2023. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.8770(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.8806(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.8747(5DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 0.8722(38.2%fib).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar steadied against Japanese yen on Tuesday as investors assessed the latest weak economic data out of China. Data showed China's imports contracted by 12.4% in July, far more than forecasts for a 5% drop. Exports fell by 14.5%, compared with a fall of 12.5% tipped by economists. Global investors were also waiting for Thursday's U.S. inflation figures, which will be a key input into the Federal Reserve's next interest rate decision in September. The dollar picked up against its major trading partners as investors shifted towards safer assets, with the dollar index last 0.57% higher at 102.67. Strong resistance can be seen at 143.40(23.6%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 143.93(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen 142.61(5DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 141.42(38.2%fib)
Equities Recap
European shares dropped on Tuesday as Italian banks came under pressure after the cabinet approved a 40% windfall tax on lenders, while sticky inflation print from Germany and weak China trade data further soured investor sentiment.
At (GMT 12:46 ),UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading down at 0.72 percent, Germany's Dax was up by 1.32 percent, France’s CAC was down by 1.09 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold hit a four-week low on Tuesday as the dollar climbed after weaker-than-expected Chinese trade data, while caution in the run-up to U.S. inflation readings this week also kept appetite for zero-yield bullion subdued.
Spot gold was down 0.4% to $1,928.61 per ounce by 1200 GMT after hitting its lowest since July 11. U.S. gold futures fell 0.4% to $1,963.00.
Oil prices fell by more than 1.5% on Tuesday after data showed China's imports and exports fell much more than expected in July in yet another sign of a sluggish post-COVID rebound for the world's largest oil importer.
Brent crude futures were down $1.33, or about 1.6%, at $84.01 a barrel at 1047 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was down $1.23, or about 1.5%, at $80.71.