Posted at 07 August 2023 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•Swiss Jul Unemployment Rate s.a. 2.1%,2.1% forecast, 2.0%previouis
•Swiss Jul Unemployment Rate n.s.a. 1.9%,1.9% forecast,1.9% previous
•German Jun Industrial Production (YoY)-1.83%, 0.82% previous
•UK Jul Halifax House Price Index (MoM) -0.3%, 0.0% forecast,-0.1% previous
•UK Jul Halifax House Price Index (YoY) -2.4%,-3.8% forecast,-2.6% previous
•German Jun Industrial Production (MoM) -1.5%,-0.5% forecast, 0.2% previous
•French Jul Reserve Assets Total 213,962.0M, 212,396.0M previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
•13:00 French 3-Month BTF Auction 3.588% previous
•13:00 French 6-Month BTF Auction 3.634% previous
•13:00 French 12-Month BTF Auction 3.657% previous
• 14:00 US Jul CB Employment Trends Index 115.31 forecast, 114.31 previous
•15:30 US 3-Month Bill Auction 5.280% previous
•15:30 US 6-Month Bill Auction 5.270% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•16:00 UK BoE MPC Member Pill Speaks
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro dipped against dollar on Monday after showed German industrial production dropped more strongly than forecast in June, underlining the challenges faced by the manufacturing sector amid a downturn in Europe's largest economy. Production fell by 1.5% compared with the previous month, the federal statistics office said on Monday. Analysts polled by Reuters had predicted a 0.5% decline.The Germany's manufacturing sector has already had a difficult year so far due to dwindling orders, sluggish output and high prices, with the HCOB final Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for manufacturing falling for a sixth consecutive month in July. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0971(5DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0984(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0925(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0874( (50%fib).
GBP/USD: The pound held steady just above a five-week low on Monday as markets continued to digest the previous week’s 25-basis-point rate increase by the Bank of England, and its implications for future monetary policy The BoE raised rates by 25 bps to 5.25% last Thursday, a slowdown from its 50 basis point hike in June, but said high inflation meant rates would remain elevated for some time.Currencies are very sensitive to central bank policy at the moment and markets are pricing in two more 25-basis-point rate increases from the BoE. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2765(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2792(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2662(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2595(Lower BB).
USD/CHF: The dollar steadied against the Swiss franc on Monday after a mixed U.S. jobs report on Friday sent the U.S. currency to a one-week low, with market focus turning to inflation data from the world's two largest economies due this week. The dollar recovered from a one-week low hit on Friday in the aftermath of the data showing the U.S. economy added fewer jobs than expected in July, with its daily losses limited by signs of solid wage gains and a decline in the unemployment rate.The U.S. dollar index , measuring the greenback against a basket of other major currencies, was last 0.25% higher at 102.31, moving away from Friday's low of 101.73. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.8770(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.8806(Aug 2nd high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.8718(5DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 0.8688(23.6%fib).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar rose against Japanese yen on Monday as mixed U.S. jobs report triggered a rally dollar, but new hurdles lay ahead in the shape of U.S. and Chinese inflation figures due later this week. Data on U.S. consumer prices are forecast to show headline inflation picking up slightly to an annual 3.3%, but the more important core rate is seen slowing to 4.7%. Some of the Fed comments over the weekend from Michelle Bowman came in more hawkish than people expected. The U.S. Federal Reserve will likely need to raise interest rates further to bring down inflation, Bowman said on Saturday. Futures imply only a 12% chance of a Fed rate hike in September, and 24% for a rise by year-end. Strong resistance can be seen at 142.60(23.6%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 143.92(Aug 3rd high).On the downside, immediate support is seen 141.78(9DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 140.68(38.2%fib)
Equities Recap
European stocks slipped on Monday as investors awaited key inflation figures from across the globe this week to gauge the outlook for interest rates, while shares of German group Siemens Energy reversed course after slumping earlier.
At (GMT 12:46 ),UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading down at 0.33 percent, Germany's Dax was down by 0.18 percent, France’s CAC was up by 0.11 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices receded on Monday as the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields gained after traders digested Friday’s jobs report, with attention turning to U.S. inflation data later this week.
Spot gold was down 0.4% at $1,934.89 per ounce by 1122 GMT, having slid to its lowest since July 11 on Friday before settling 0.4% higher. U.S. gold futures eased 0.3% to $1,969.70
Oil prices edged lower following a protracted rally, but retained support from pledges by top producers Saudi Arabia and Russia to extend supply cuts through September.
On Monday, Brent crude futures slipped 63 cents to $85.61 a barrel by 1217 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was at $82.17 a barrel, down 65 cents. WTI dipped by $1 earlier in the session.