Posted at 04 August 2023 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•US Jobs growth slows but wage gains point to tight market
•Focus now on consumer price index (CPI) next week
•Canada Jul Avg hourly wages Permanent employee 5.0%, 3.9% previous
•US Jul U6 Unemployment Rate 6.7%, 6.8% forecast, 6.9% previous
•US Jul Participation Rate 62.6%, 62.6%forecast ,62.6% previous
•US Jul Private Nonfarm Payrolls 179K forecast , 149K previous
•Canada Jul Employment Change -6.4K ,21.1K forecast ,59.9K previous
•US Jul Average Hourly Earnings (YoY) (YoY) 4.4% ,4.2% forecast ,4.4% previous
•US Jul Unemployment Rate 3.5%,3.6% forecast ,3.6% previous
•US Jul Average Weekly Hours 34.3, 34.4 forecast , 34.4 previous
•US Jul Participation Rate 65.6%, 65.6%forecast ,65.7% previous
•US Jul Nonfarm Payrolls 187K,200K forecast , 209K previous
•US Jul Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) 0.4%, 0.3% forecast ,0.4% previous
•Canada Jul Full Employment Change 1.7K, 109.6K previous
•Canada Jul Unemployment Rate 5.5%,5.5% forecast ,5.4% previous
•Canada Jul Ivey PMI 48.6, 52.7 forecast , 50.2 previous
•Canada Jul Ivey PMI n.s.a 45.2,53.4 previous
•U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count 659, 529 previous
•U.S. Baker Hughes Total Rig Count 525, 664 previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•No data Ahead
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
• No Events Ahead
EUR/USD: The euro strengthened against dollar on Friday after a government jobs report showed a slowing but still tight U.S. labor market.Nonfarm payrolls increased by 187,000 jobs last month, the Labor Department said in its closely watched employment report, slightly below expectations of 200,000 jobs. At the same time, the unemployment rate fell to 3.5% from 3.6% in June.The dollar fell 0.4% against a basket of major currencies, a reversal after two consecutive weekly gains. According to the CME’s FedWatch Tool, the probability that the Fed leaves rates unchanged at its September 19-20 meeting is now around 85% from around 78% just prior to the data coming out. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1024(5DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1090(25th July high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0975(5DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0958( ( (50%fib).
GBP/USD: The pound strengthened on Friday after a new government jobs report showed a slowing, but still tight U.S. labor market .The Labor Department reported that U.S. employers added 187,000 jobs in July. Data for June additions was revised lower to 185,000 jobs, from 209,000 reported previously.Average hourly earnings rose 0.4% in July, unchanged from the previous month, exceeding expectations, taking the year-on-year increase in wages to 4.4%.Economists who have long been forecasting a downturn by the fourth quarter of this year are increasingly becoming convinced that the soft-landingscenario for the economy envisaged by the U.S. Federal Reserve is now possible. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2753(5DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2801(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2701(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2611(50%fib).
USD/CAD: The Canadian dollar weakened to a near two-month low against its U.S. counterpart on Friday, as signs of cooling in the domestic jobs market led to reduced bets for additional interest rate hikes by the Bank of Canada. The Canadian economy shed 6,400 jobs in July, missing estimates for a gain of 21,100, while the jobless rate ticked up to 5.5%. Money markets see chances of another Bank of Canada rate hike this year at about 50%, down from 80% before the jobs report.The U.S. dollar gave back some recent gains against a basket of major currencies as U.S. employment data showed the economy adding fewer jobs than expected in July. The loonie was trading 0.2% lower at 1.3372 to the greenback. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3406 (23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3423 (June 7th high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3337(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3310 (5 DMA).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar dipped against Japanese yen on Friday after slowing U.S. jobs growth in July encouraged hopes of a soft economic landing but higher wages suggested the Federal Reserve may need to keep interest rates higher for longer.The U.S. economy added fewer jobs than expected last month. However, solid wage gains and a drop in unemployment to 3.5% signaled continued tightness in the labor market.Nonfarm payrolls increased by 187,000 jobs last month, the Labor Department's survey of households showed, less than a ' survey of economists who forecast growth of 200,000.Strong resistance can be seen at 142.62(5DMA) an upside break can trigger rise towards 143.60(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen 141.76(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 140.20(50%fib)
Equities Recap
European stocks steadied on Friday, after a three-day selloff, as some upbeat earnings as well as U.S. jobs data highlighting resilience in the world's largest economy outweighed jitters around slowing euro zone growth.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed up by 0.47 percent, Germany's Dax ended up by 0.80 percent, France’s CAC finished the day up by 0.75 percent.
Wall Street closed lower on Friday after a report of slowing U.S. labor market growth, and all three major indexes posted weekly losses as investors braced for more possible downside surprises a day after disappointing earnings from Apple.
Dow Jones closed down by 0.43% percent, S&P 500 closed down by 0.53% percent, Nasdaq settled down by 0.36% percent.
Treasuries Recap
U.S. Treasury yields dropped after the jobs data, but investors hesitated to rule out further monetary tightening.
The yield on 10-year Treasury notes was down 14.3 basis points to 4.046%. 30-year yields were down 9.7 basis points to 4.207%.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices rose on Friday after a slightly weaker-than-expected U.S. jobs report pushed the dollar and Treasury yields lower, offering some respite to bullion which was still on track for its worst week in six.
Spot gold was up 0.3% to $1,938.69 per ounce by 11:08 a.m. EDT (1508 GMT). Bullion, however, was down 1% so far this week.U.S. gold futures gained 0.3% to $1,974.10.
Oil prices rose more than a dollar a barrel, posting a sixth consecutive week of gains, after top producers Saudi Arabia and Russia extended supply cuts through September, adding to undersupply concerns.
Brent rose 1.3%, to settle at $86.24 a barrel, while the U.S. crude ended 1.6% higher at $82.82.