Posted at 04 August 2023 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
• German Jun Factory Orders (MoM) 7.0%,-2.0% forecast,6.4% previous
•French Jun Industrial Production (MoM) -0.9%, -0.3% forecast,1.2% previous
•French Non-Farm Payrolls (QoQ) (Q2) 0.1%, 0.3% previous
•Italian Jun Industrial Production (YoY) -0.8%,-2.0% forecast, -3.7% previous
•Italian Jun Industrial Production (MoM) 0.5%,-0.3% forecast, 1.6% previous
•UK Jul Construction PMI 51.7,48.0 forecast, 48.9 previous
•EU Jun Retail Sales (MoM) -0.3%, 0.2% forecast, 0.0% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•12:30 US Jul Avg hourly wages Permanent employee 3.9% previous
•12:30 US Jul U6 Unemployment Rate 6.8% forecast, 6.9% previous
•12:30 US Jul Participation Rate 62.6% forecast ,62.6% previous
•12:30 US Jul Private Nonfarm Payrolls 179K forecast , 149K previous
•12:30 US Jul Employment Change 21.1K forecast ,59.9K previous
•12:30 US Jul Average Hourly Earnings (YoY) (YoY) 4.2% forecast ,4.4% previous
•12:30 US Jul Unemployment Rate 3.6% forecast ,3.6% previous
•12:30 US Jul Average Weekly Hours 34.4 forecast , 34.4 previous
•12:30 US Jul Participation Rate 65.6% forecast ,65.7% previous
•12:30 US Jul Nonfarm Payrolls 200K forecast , 209K previous
•12:30 US Jul Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) 0.3% forecast ,0.4% previous
•12:30 Canada Jul Part Time Employment Change -49.8K previous
•12:30 Canada Jul Full Employment Change 109.6K previous
•12:30 Canada Jul Unemployment Rate 5.5% forecast ,5.4% previous
•14:00 Canada Jul Ivey PMI 52.7 forecast , 50.2 previous
•14:00 Canada Jul Ivey PMI n.s.a 53.4 previous
•17:00 U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count 529 previous
•17:00 U.S. Baker Hughes Total Rig Count 664 previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
•No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro dipped against dollar on Friday after German industrial orders jumped in June, while investors await crucial U.S. data after Thursday’s numbers failed to provide further clues about whether the Federal Reserve would hike rates one more time this year.German orders rose against expectations for a drop, driven by gains in the aerospace sector that left analysts divided over whether the reading represented a sustainable upturn. A survey of 80 economists expects U.S. payrolls to increase by 200,000 jobs last month after rising 209,000 in June. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0971(5DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0984(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0925(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0874( (50%fib).
GBP/USD: The pound held steady just above a five-week low on Friday as traders continued to process the previous day’s 25 basis point Bank of England rate hike, and ahead of crucial U.S. jobs data.After lifting rates by 50 basis points in June, the BoE, on Thursday, hiked by 25 bps to 5.25%, but said high inflation meant rates would remain elevated for some time. The pound was fairly unmoved by the decision, and was last at $1.27065 . The day’s main event for currency markets is U.S. non-farm payroll data due at 1230 GMT. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2731(Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2792(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2662(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2607(Lower BB).
USD/CHF: The dollar steadied against the Swiss franc on Friday as investors looked ahead to the jobs report due later in the day that could influence the path for U.S. interest rates. The report is due at 1230 GMT (0830 EST) and is expected to show U.S. job growth slowed further in July but still had enough momentum to shield the economy from a recession. A survey of economists predicts nonfarm payrolls (NFP) increased by 200,000 jobs last month. The dollar was last up 0.4% at 0.8776 francs, moving further away from an eight-and-a-half year low of 0.8554 touched in late July. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.8803(Aug 2nd high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.8846(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.8754(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.8722(23.6%fib).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar steadied against Japanese yen on Friday as investors assessed U.S. economic data that largely showed a resilient labour market ahead of the all-important monthly jobs report. Investor attention will be squarely on the July U.S. non-farm payrolls report, with a Reuters survey of 80 economists expecting payrolls to have increased by 200,000 last month, after rising 209,000 in June. Economists who have long been forecasting a downturn by the fourth quarter of this year are increasingly becoming convinced that the soft-landing scenario for the economy envisaged by the U.S. Federal Reserve is now possible. The greenback climbed 0.20% against the yen to 142.8 .Strong resistance can be seen at 144.26(23.6%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 144.76(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen 142.11(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 141.71(11DMA)
Equities Recap
European stocks steadied on Friday, after a recent selloff, as strong results from retail giant Amazon and a host of other companies outweighed recent jitters around slowing economic growth across the continent.
At (GMT 12:06 ),UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading down at 0.93 percent, Germany's Dax was down by 0.54 percent, France’s CAC was up by 0.01 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold on Friday was on track for its biggest weekly decline in six as data projecting continued strength in the U.S. labour market firmed bets for U.S. interest rates remaining elevated and boosted Treasury yields and the dollar.
Spot gold was down 0.1% at $1,932.09 per ounce by 1046 GMT and U.S. gold futures were trading 0.1% lower at $1,967.20.
Oil prices rose for a second day on Friday, set for their sixth week of gains, after Saudi Arabia and Russia, the world's second and third-largest crude producers, pledged to cut output through next month.
Both benchmarks were on track for a sixth week of gains,their longest streak of weekly gains this year. Brent has risen 15.4% and WTI 18.2% during the last six weeks.