Posted at 04 August 2023 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
• US Unit Labor Costs (QoQ) (Q2) 1.6%,2.6% forecast,4.2% previous
• US Nonfarm Productivity (QoQ) (Q2) 3.7%,2.0% forecast,-2.1% previous
• US Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg. 228.25K,235.63K forecast,233.75K previous
• US Initial Jobless Claims 227K, 227K forecast,221K previous
• US Continuing Jobless Claims 1,700K, 1,700K forecast,1,690K previous
• US Jul Services PMI 52.3, 52.4 forecast,54.4 previous
• US S&P Global Composite PMI 52.0,52.0 forecast,53.2 previous
• US Jun Factory orders ex transportation (MoM) 0.2%,0.4% forecast,-0.5% previous
• US Jun Durables Excluding Transport (MoM) 0.5%,0.6% previous
• US Jul ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI 52.7,53.0 forecast,53.9 previous
• US Jul ISM Non-Manufacturing Employment 50.7,51.1 forecast,53.1 previous
• US Jul ISM Non-Manufacturing New Orders 55.0, 55.6 forecast,55.5 previous
• US Jul ISM Non-Manufacturing Business Activity 57.1, 57.2 forecast,59.2 previous
• US Jul ISM Non-Manufacturing Prices 56.8,52.1 forecast,54.1 previous
• US Jul Factory Orders (MoM) 2.3%,2.2% forecast,0.3% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•No data ahead
Looking Ahead Events And Other Release(GMT)
• 01:30 Australia RBA Monetary Policy Statement
Currency Summaries
EUR/USD: The euro edged slightly higher against dollar on Thursday as investors digested latest batch of US economic data. U.S. data released Thursday showed layoffs dropped to an 11-month low in July, even as the number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits rose slightly last week and the labor market remains tight. The figures followed Wednesday's ADP National Employment Report, which showed 324,000 private sector jobs added in July and a 6.2% rise year-over-year in annual private sector pay. Also on Thursday, the Labor Department released data showing U.S. worker productivity rebounded sharply in the second quarter, further boosting the inflation outlook. Investors will closely watch the July non-farm payrolls report on Friday and the July consumer price index report next week for inflation trends. It was last down 0.4% at $1.2658. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0971(5DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0984(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0925(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0874( (50%fib).
GBP/USD: Sterling dipped against the dollar on Thursday after the Bank of England (BoE) raised interest rates by a quarter percentage point as largely expected. The Bank of England raised its key interest rate by a quarter of a percentage point to a 15-year peak of 5.25% on Thursday, its 14th back-to-back increase, and warned that borrowing costs were likely to stay high for some time. Investors moved to price in slightly less BoE tightening, with rates seen peaking at 5.75% and two-year bond yields down, although investors still saw a two-in-three chance that rates would rise to 5.5% next month. Sterling extended losses after the BoE decision, falling as much as 0.7% to its lowest since June 30. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2720(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2822(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2628(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2584(Lower BB).
USD/CAD: The Canadian dollar was little changed against its U.S. counterpart on Thursday, with the currency recovering from a near four-week low as commodity prices rallied and investors awaited domestic and U.S. jobs data. Canada is a major producer of commodities, including metals and oil. U.S. crude futures settled 2.6% higher at $81.55 a barrel as Saudi Arabia and Russia were taking steps to keep supplies tight into September and possibly beyond. The Canadian and U.S. employment reports for July are due for release on Friday which could help guide expectations for additional interest rate hikes by the Bank of Canada and the Federal Reserve.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3363(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3393 (Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3278 (38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3253(5 DMA).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar edged lower against Japanese yen on Thursday after U.S. labor market data failed to impress a day before a key jobs report, and as Treasury yields rose but eased at the short end.Nonfarm-productivity rose to an annualized 3.7% to help curb growth in labor costs and aid an improving U.S. inflation outlook. But labor productivity has grown at a 1.4% rate since the fourth quarter of 2019, well below the long-term average since 1947 of 2.1%.Other data showed the number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits rose slightly last week, while layoffs fell to an 11-month low in July amid a tight labor market. The safe-haven Japanese yen strengthened 0.40% at 142.72 per dollar. Strong resistance can be seen at 143.98(23.6%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 144.00(Psychological level).On the downside, immediate support is seen 142.58(5DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 141.98(38.2%fib)
Equities Recap
European stocks hit a three-week low on Thursday, hurt by disappointing earnings reports and elevated U.S. bond yields, though British stocks regained some ground after the Bank of England raised rates in line with expectations.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed down by 0.43 percent, Germany's Dax ended down by 0.79 percent, France’s CAC finished the day down by 0.72 percent.
U.S. stocks closed little changed on Thursday after a choppy trading session, as investors weighed another rise in Treasury yields with the latest batch of economic data and earnings.
Dow Jones closed down by 0.19% percent, S&P 500 closed down by 0.25% percent, Nasdaq settled down by 0.10% percent.
Treasuries Recap
U.S. long-term Treasury yields hit nine-month highs on Thursday after employment and other economic data pointed to easing inflation.
The benchmark U.S. 10-year yields were last up 9.3 basis points (bps) at 4.171%, after initially hitting 4.195%, the highest since November.
Commodities Recap
Gold was near a more than three-week low on Thursday, dragged by a robust dollar and elevated bond yields, while investors remained cautious ahead of July U.S. nonfarm payrolls data.
Spot gold was flat at $1,933.80 per ounce by 2:34 p.m. EDT (1834 GMT), after hitting its lowest since July 11. U.S. gold futures settled 0.3% lower at $1,968.80.
Oil prices gained about 2% on Thursday as Saudi Arabia and Russia took steps to keep supplies tight into September and possibly beyond.
Brent futures rose $1.94, or 2.3%, to settle at $85.14 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude rose $2.06, or 2.6%, to settle at $81.55.