Posted at 03 August 2023 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•Bank of England to announce rate decision at 1100 GMT
•German Jun Imports (MoM) -3.4%,-0.3%forecast,1.7% previous
• German Jun Trade Balance 18.7B,15.0B forecast,14.4B previous
•German Jun Exports (MoM) 0.1%,0.3% forecast,-0.1% previous
•Swiss Jul CPI (MoM) -0.1%,-0.2% forecast,0.1% previous
•Swiss Jul CPI (YoY) 1.6%,1.6% forecast,1.7% previous
•Italian Jul Composite 48.9 forecast, 49.7 previous
•French Jul Services PMI 47.1,47.4 forecast,48.0 previous
•French Jul S&P Global Composite PMI 46.6,46.6 forecast,47.2 previous
•German Jul Services PMI 52.3,52.0 forecast,54.1 previous
•EU Jul Services PMI 50.9,51.1 forecast, 52.0 previous
•Italian Jun Retail Sales (YoY) 3.6%,4.0% forecast, 3.0% previous
•EU Jul S&P Global Composite PMI 48.6 ,48.9 forecast, 49.9 previous
•UK Jul Composite PMI 50.8 , 50.7 forecast,52.8 previous
•UK Jul Services PMI 51.5 ,51.5 forecast,53.7 previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•12:15 Canada Jul Reserve Assets Total 114,284.0M previous
•12:30 US Unit Labor Costs (QoQ) (Q2) 2.6% forecast,4.2% previous
•12:30 US Nonfarm Productivity (QoQ) (Q2)2.0% forecast,-2.1% previous
•12:30 US Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg. 235.63K forecast,233.75K previous
•12:30 US Initial Jobless Claims 227K forecast,221K previous
•12:30 US Continuing Jobless Claims 1,700K forecast,1,690K previous
•13:45 US Jul Services PMI 52.4 forecast,54.4 previous
•13:45 US S&P Global Composite PMI 52.0 forecast,53.2 previous
•14:00 US Jun Factory orders ex transportation (MoM) 0.4% forecast,-0.5% previous
•14:00 US Jun Durables Excluding Transport (MoM) 0.6% previous
•14:00 US Jul ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI 53.0 forecast,53.9 previous
•14:00 US Jul ISM Non-Manufacturing Employment 51.1 forecast,53.1 previous
•14:00 US Jul ISM Non-Manufacturing New Orders 55.6 forecast,55.5 previous
•14:00 US Jul ISM Non-Manufacturing Business Activity 57.2 forecast,59.2 previous
•14:00 US Jul ISM Non-Manufacturing Prices 52.1 forecast,54.1 previous
•14:00 US Jul Factory Orders (MoM) 2.2% forecast,0.3% previous
•14:00 US Jun Durables Excluding Defense (MoM) 6.2% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
•11:00 UK Aug BoE MPC vote cut 0 forecast,0 previous
•11:00 UK Aug BoE MPC vote hike 8 forecast,7 previous
•11:00 UK Aug BoE MPC vote unchanged 1 forecast,2 previous
•11:00 UK Aug BoE Interest Rate Decision 5.25% forecast,5.00% previous
•11:00 UK BoE MPC Meeting Minutes
•11:30 UK BoE Gov Bailey Speaks
•13:15 UK BoE Gov Bailey Speaks
Currency forecast
EUR/USD: The euro dipped on Thursday as dollar shrugged off a U.S. credit rating downgrade and instead got a leg up from strong private payrolls data. U.S. private payrolls rose more than expected in July as small businesses boosted hiring, pointing to continued labor market resilience that could shield the economy from a recession. The ADP National Employment report on Wednesday also showed a moderation in wage growth, which bodes well for the inflation outlook. It added to recent upbeat data ranging from inflation to consumer spending in raising hopes that the economy will have the "soft landing" envisioned by Federal Reserve officials. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0971(5DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0984(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0925(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0874( (50%fib).
GBP/USD: Sterling slippeed against the dollar on Thursday as investors focus shifted to Bank of England’s rate decision. The Bank of England is expected to raise interest rates later in the day. Most economists expect the central bank to hike by a quarter-point to a 15-year high of 5.25%, but the risk is a repeat of June’s surprise half-point increase., which could fuel bets that major central banks are not done tightening yet. The pound was flat against the dollar at $1.2782, after touching a three-week low against the greenback on Tuesday. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2731(Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2792(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2662(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2607(Lower BB).
USD/CHF: The dollar steadied against the Swiss franc on Thursday after the strong private payrolls data added to signs of labour market resilience in the U.S. Data out on Wednesday showed U.S. private payrolls rose more than expected in July, while plans by the U.S. Treasury to increase the size of government bond auctions in the third quarter pushed longer-dated U.S. Treasury yields higher and boosted the dollar. The dollar index , which measures the currency against six major peers, rose as high as 102.84, the highest level in four weeks. It was last up 0.1% at 102.73, extending Wednesday's 0.5% gain. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.8812(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.8810(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.8754(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.8734(5DMA).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar edged lower against Japanese yen on Thursday as yen was helped by some safe-haven bids after Fitch downgraded the United States’ top credit rating, but an uptick in the yen gains were capped ahead of Non-farm Payrolls data.Ratings agency Fitch downgraded the U.S. government to AA+ from AAA to reflect expected fiscal deterioration over the next three years and repeated down-the-wire debt ceiling negotiations. The focus remains on Friday’s non-farm payrolls report for July, a key barometer of the health of the U.S. economy. Strong resistance can be seen at 143.98(23.6%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 144.00(Psychological level).On the downside, immediate support is seen 142.58(5DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 141.98(38.2%fib)
Equities Recap
European stocks hit a three-week low on Thursday, hurt by disappointing earnings reports, elevated U.S. bond yields and data pointing to slowing business activity in the euro zone.
At (GMT 09:51 ),UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading down at 1.15 percent, Germany's Dax was down by 0.84percent, France’s CAC was down by 0.89 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices held near three-week lows on Thursday after strong U.S. private payrolls data suggested the economy could avoid a recession, fuelling bets of more monetary policy tightening and, in turn, boosting the dollar and Treasury yields.
Spot gold was little changed at $1,936.07 per ounce by 0741 GMT, having hit its lowest since July 11. U.S. gold futures fell 0.2% to $1,971.90.
Oil slid further on Thursday after dropping sharply from more than three-month highs in the previous session as a U.S. government credit downgrade weighed on sentiment, while concerns around supply tightness provided support.
Brent crude futures were down 81 cents, or 1%, at $82.39 a barrel at 0812 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude dropped 73 cents, or 0.9%, to $78.76.