Posted at 01 August 2023 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•US ISM Manufacturing PMI at 46.4 in July vs estimate 46.8
•US Indexes: Dow up 0.20 %, S&P down 0.27% , Nasdaq down 0.43%
•US Redbook (YoY) 0.1%,-0.4% previous
•Canada Jul Manufacturing PMI 49.6,48.9 forecast, 48.8 previous
•US Jul Manufacturing PMI 49.0,49.0 forecast,46.3 previous
•US Jun Construction Spending (MoM) 0.5%, 0.6% forecast,0.9% previous
•US Jul ISM Manufacturing New Orders Index 47.3,44.0 forecast,45.6 previous
•US Jul ISM Manufacturing Employment 44.4, 48.0 forecast,48.1 previous
•US Jul ISM Manufacturing PMI 46.4, 46.8 forecast,46.0 previous
•US Jun JOLTs Job Openings 9.582M, 9.610M forecast,9.824M previous
•US Jul ISM Manufacturing Prices 42.6, 42.8 forecast,41.8 previous
•US Jul Texas Services Sector Outlook -4.2,-12.5 forecast,-8.2 previous
•US Jul Dallas Fed Services Revenues 12.9, 5.6 forecast ,3.6 previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•22:30 New Zealand Employment Change (QoQ) (Q2) 0.5% forecast,0.8% previous
•22:30 New Zealand Labor Cost Index (QoQ) (Q2) 1.2% forecast,0.9% previous
•22:30 New Zealand Labor Cost Index (YoY) (Q2) 4.4% forecast,4.5% previous
•22:30 New Zealand Participation Rate (Q2) 72.00% forecast, 72.00% previous
•22:30 New Zealand Unemployment Rate (Q2) 3.5% forecast, 3.4% previous
•22:45 Australia Jul AIG Construction Index 10.6 previous
•22:45 Australia Jul AIG Manufacturing Index -19.8 previous
•23:50 Japan Monetary Base (YoY) -0.9% forecast,-1.0% previous
•23:50 Japan Jun Large Scale Retail Sales YoY (YoY) 4.0% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
•23:50 Japan Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro edged higher against dollar on Tuesday as investors digested US economic data. ISM survey offered a tough assessment of U.S. manufacturing conditions, so-called hard data suggested the sector is shuffling along. Federal Reserve data in June showed factory production rebounded in the second quarter, ending two straight quarterly declines.Meanwhile, U.S. construction spending increased solidly last month and May's data was revised higher, boosted by outlays in both single and multifamily housing projects, the Commerce Department said.In a third data set, the monthly Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, or JOLTS report from the Labor Department, remained consistent with tight labor market conditions. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1014(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1030(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0950(5DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0912( (38.2%fib).
GBP/USD: The pound dipped against dollar on Tuesday as investors looked towards an uncertain Bank of England interest rate decision on Thursday. Data on Tuesday painted a weak picture of the British economy which, although it has been more resilient than expected at the start of the year, is barely expanding. British house prices dropped by the most since 2009 in the 12 months to July as rising interest rates took a toll on the market, mortgage lender Nationwide said.Separate data showed that British factory output fell at the fastest pace in seven months in July, matching a trend seen around the world. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2842(Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2868(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2761(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2669(50%fib).
USD/CAD: The Canadian dollar weakened to a three-week low against its U.S. counterpart on Tuesday as the greenback notched broad-based gains and data showed activity in Canada's manufacturing sector slowing for a third straight month . S&P Global's measure of Canadian manufacturing activity edged higher last month to 49.6 from 48.8 in June. Still, a reading below 50 indicates contraction in the sector. It has been below that level since May. The price of oil, one of Canada's major exports, edged lower on signs of profit-taking after a rally in July. U.S. crude oil futures were down 0.3% at $81.57 a barrel. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3306(38.2% fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3367 (50% fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3248 (5DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3226 (23.6%fib).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar strengthened against Japanese yen on Tuesday as investors continued to seek clarity on the Bank of Japan's recent adjustment to its yield curve control and what that might mean for monetary policy. The Asian currency has been on a wild ride since Friday, when the BOJ began what may become a slow shift away from decades of massive monetary stimulus, saying it would offer to buy 10-year Japanese government bonds at 1.0% in fixed-rate operations instead of the previous rate of 0.5%. The yen weakened 0.75% at 143.35 per dollar. Strong resistance can be seen at 143.72(23.6%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 144.00(Psychological level).On the downside, immediate support is seen 142.21(Daily low), a break below could take the pair towards 141.64(38.2%fib)
Equities Recap
European stocks fell on Tuesday, with the German DAX pulling back from record highs as shrinking factory activity in the euro zone, China and the United States underscored growing risks to the global economy from rising interest rates.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed down by 0.43 percent, Germany's Dax ended down by 1.26 percent, France’s CAC finished the day up by 1.22 percent.
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed weaker on Tuesday, the first day of seasonally slow August, ahead of U.S. jobs data and major companies' earnings reports later this week.
Dow Jones closed up by 0.20 percent, S&P 500 ended down by 0.27 percent, Nasdaq finished the day down by 0.43 percent.
Treasuries Recap
U.S. Treasury yields rose on Tuesday with 30-year paper touching a new year-high as investors expected an increase in government debt issuance and anticipated more signs of economic resilience, despite data showing a slowdown in activity.
U.S. Treasury benchmark 10-year yields rose to 4.047% nine basis points above Monday's levels. Two-year yields , which are more closely linked with monetary policy expectations, added four basis points to 4.912%.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices fell 1% on Tuesday, weighed down by a stronger dollar and an uptick in bond yields, while investors looked forward to more U.S. economic data this week that could influence the Federal Reserve’s policy stance.
Spot gold was down 1% at $1,944.29 per ounce by 02:51 p.m. ET (1851 GMT). U.S. gold futures settled 1.5% lower at $1,978.80.
Oil prices edged lower on a stronger dollar and signs of profit-taking after a rally in July when investors bet on tighter global supplies and demand growth in the second half of 2023.
Brent crude futures for October settled at $84.91 a barrel on Tuesday, down 52 cents or 0.6%. Front-month Brent settled on Monday at its highest since April 13.
U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures closed at $81.37 a barrel, down 43 cents, or 0.5%, from the previous session's settlement, which was its highest since April 14.