Posted at 01 August 2023 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•UK Jul Nationwide HPI (YoY) -3.8%,-3.8% forecast,-3.5%previous
•UK Jul Nationwide HPI (MoM) -0.2%,-0.2% forecast,0.1% previous
•Sweden Jul Manufacturing PMI 47.6,44.7 forecast,44.8 previous
•Italian Jul Manufacturing PMI 44.5,44.2 forecast,43.8 previous
•French Jul Manufacturing PMI 45.1,44.5 forecast,46.0 previous
•German Jul Unemployment Rate 5.6%, 5.7% forecast,5.7% previous
•German Jul Unemployment n.s.a. 2.617M,2.563M forecast,2.550M previous
•German Jul Unemployment 2.604M,2.629M forecast,2.610M previous
•German Jul Unemployment -4K,20K forecast,28K previous
•German Jul Manufacturing PMI 38.8,38.8 forecast,40.6 previous
•UK Jul Manufacturing PMI 45.3 , 45.0 forecast, 46.5 previous
•EU Jun Unemployment Rate 6.4%,6.5% forecast,6.5% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•12:55 US Redbook (YoY) -0.4% previous
•13:30 Canada Jul Manufacturing PMI 48.9 forecast, 48.8 previous
•13:45 US Jul Manufacturing PMI 49.0 forecast,46.3 previous
•14:00 US Jun Construction Spending (MoM) 0.6% forecast,0.9% previous
•14:00 US Jul ISM Manufacturing New Orders Index 44.0 forecast,45.6 previous
•14:00 US Jul ISM Manufacturing Employment 48.0 forecast,48.1 previous
•14:00 US Jul ISM Manufacturing PMI 46.8 forecast,46.0 previous
•14:00 US Jun JOLTs Job Openings 9.610M forecast,9.824M previous
•14:00 US Jul ISM Manufacturing Prices 42.8 forecast,41.8 previous
•14:30 US Jul Texas Services Sector Outlook -12.5 forecast,-8.2 previous
•14:30 US Jul Dallas Fed Services Revenues 5.6 forecast 3.6 previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
No data ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro eased on Tuesday after a survey showed manufacturing activity in the bloc contracted in July at the fastest pace since May 2020 as demand slumped despite factories cutting their prices sharply. There was considerable weakness seen in Germany, Europe's largest economy, while France and Italy, the second- and third-largest euro zone economies, also recorded marked deteriorations since June. U.S. activity data later in the day will also be closely watched. The euro eased 0.16% to $1.0979, not to far from an almost three-week low touched on Friday. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1014(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1030(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0950(5DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0912( (38.2%fib).
GBP/USD: The pound dipped against dollar on Tuesday as investors looked towards an uncertain Bank of England interest rate decision on Thursday. Data on Tuesday painted a weak picture of the British economy which, although it has been more resilient than expected at the start of the year, is barely expanding. British house prices dropped by the most since 2009 in the 12 months to July as rising interest rates took a toll on the market, mortgage lender Nationwide said.Separate data showed that British factory output fell at the fastest pace in seven months in July, matching a trend seen around the world. The pound was down just 0.1% against the dollar on Tuesday at $1.283. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2842(Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2868(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2761(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2669(50%fib).
USD/CHF: The dollar strengthened against the Swiss franc on Tuesday as investors braced for a week of key economic data that could shape the U.S. Federal Reserve’s stance on future interest rates to quell sticky inflation. U.S. employment data later this week will be a key marker for interest rate expectations from the Fed and any upside surprises could remind traders that a further rate hike remains a possibility. Chicago Federal Reserve President Austan Goolsbee on Monday said the central bank was “walking the line pretty well” on bringing inflation down without causing a recession and will watch the data to judge if more monetary tightening may be appropriate in September. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.8770(Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.8810(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.8689(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.8662(9DMA).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar strengthened against Japanese yen on Tuesday as investors continued to seek clarity on the Bank of Japan's recent adjustment to its yield curve control and what that might mean for monetary policy. The yen last fetched 142.97, down 0.5% to its lowest in three weeks.The Asian currency has been on a wild ride since Friday, when the BOJ began what may become a slow shift away from decades of massive monetary stimulus, saying it would offer to buy 10-year Japanese government bonds at 1.0% in fixed-rate operations instead of the previous rate of 0.5%. Strong resistance can be seen at 143.72(23.6%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 144.00(Psychological level).On the downside, immediate support is seen 142.21(Daily low), a break below could take the pair towards 141.64(38.2%fib)
Equities Recap
European stocks slipped on Tuesday, with the German DAX pulling back from record highs as shrinking factory activity in the euro zone and China underscored growing risks to the global economy from rising interest rates.
At (GMT 12:01` ),UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading down at 0.30 percent, Germany's Dax was down by 0.97 percent, France’s CAC was down by 0.92 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold retreated on Tuesday as the dollar firmed and hopes of a soft landing for the U.S. economy dented safe-haven demand for bullion.
Spot gold eased 0.5% to $1,954.49 per ounce by 1136 GMT, while U.S. gold futures dropped 0.9% to $1,953.70.
Oil hovered around three-month highs on Tuesday as investors focused on tightening global supplies and demand growth in the second half of the year.
Brent crude futures for October were at $85.43 a barrel at 1152 GMT, down 20 cents. Front-month Brent settled at its highest since April 13 on Monday.
U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures were at $81.53 a barrel, down 27 cents from the previous session's settlement, which was its highest since April 14.