Posted at 31 July 2023 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•French 12-Month BTF Auction 3.657%, 3.659% previous
•French 3-Month BTF Auction 3.588% ,3.613% previous
•French 6-Month BTF Auction 3.634% ,3.644% previous
•US Jul Chicago PMI 42.8 ,43.0 forecast,41.5 previous
•US Jul Dallas Fed Mfg Business Index -20.0 ,-26.3 forecast,-23.2 previous
•US 3-Month Bill Auction 5.280%, 5.270% previous
•US 6-Month Bill Auction 5.270% ,5.270% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•23:30 Japan Jun Unemployment Rate 2.5% ,2.6% previous
•23:30 Japan Jun Jobs/applications ratio 1.32 forecast,1.31 previous
•23:50 Japan Jun Large Scale Retail Sales YoY (YoY) 4.0% previous
•01:30 Australia Home Loans (MoM) 4.0% previous
•01:30 Australia Invest Housing Finance (MoM) 6.2% previous
•01:30 Australia Jun Building Approvals (YoY) -2.60% previous
•01:30 Australia Building Approvals (MoM) -8.0% forecast,20.6% previous
•01:45 China Jul Caixin Manufacturing PMI 50.3 forecast,50.5 previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
•04:30 Australia Aug RBA Interest Rate Decision 4.35% forecast,4.10% previous
•04:30 Australia RBA Rate Statement
Currency Summaries
EUR/USD: The euro eased on Monday as dollar strengthened after a survey from the Federal Reserve showed U.S. banks reported tighter credit standards and weaker loan demand during the second quarter. The Fed's quarterly Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey, or SLOOS, which is directed both at businesses and consumers, also showed that banks expect to further tighten standards over the rest of 2023. The dollar index , a measure of the greenback against six major currencies, rose 0.28% after trading little changed earlier in the session. The euro fell 0.2% to $1.0993.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1014(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1030(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0950(5DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0912( (38.2%fib).
GBP/USD: The British pound was heading for a second straight monthly gain and fourth positive month in five in July as stubborn inflation readings and robust growth data reinforced expectations that the Bank of England has more to do to bring inflation lower.Britain’s central bank is likely to raise its key interest rate for the 14th time in the current tightening cycle on Thursday, but traders and economists are split on the size of the hike. The pound was last little changed against the dollar at $1.2856, while the euro last bought 85.85 pence. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2869(5DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2912(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2771(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2637(50%fib).
USD/CAD: The Canadian dollar strengthened against its U.S. counterpart on Monday as rising hopes that a global economic downturn can be avoided helped underpin commodity-linked currencies.The loonie was trading 0.6% higher at 1.3172 to the greenback, or 75.92 U.S. cents, after moving in a range of 1.3152 to 1.3261. For the month of July, it was up 0.5% .Canada is a major producer of commodities, including oil, which climbed to a three-month high on expectations that Saudi Arabia will extend voluntary output cuts into September and tighten global supply. U.S. crude oil futures settled 1.5% higher at $81.80 a barrel. .Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.33211 (5DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3256(38.2% fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3153(23.6% fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3101 (Lower BB).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar strengthened against Japanese yen on Monday as investors continued to digest Friday’s decision by the Bank of Japan (BOJ) to lift the lid on bond yields in a step away from its ultra-easy policies. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) has tweaked its bond yield control policy and will allow interest rates to rise more freely, action that market participants have interpreted as the start of a slow shift away from decades of massive monetary stimulus.Since 2016, the BOJ has guided short-term interest rates at minus 0.1% and the 10-year government bond yield at around 0% in action known as yield curve control (YCC). It has also set an allowance band of 0.5% above and below the 10-year yield target. Strong resistance can be seen at 142.52(23.6%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 143.00(Psychological level).On the downside, immediate support is seen 141.06(5DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 139.93(38.2%fib)
Equities Recap
European shares ended higher on Monday, helped by gains in healthcare stocks and a report showing euro zone inflation eased further in July, though upbeat growth data tempered optimism about a rate hike pause.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed up by 0.07 percent, Germany's Dax ended down by 0.14 percent, France’s CAC finished the day up by 0. 29 percent.
U.S. stocks closed little changed on Monday, ending a strong July on upbeat company earnings and hopes of a soft landing for a resilient U.S. economy.
Dow Jones closed up by 0.28 percent, S&P 500 ended up by 0.15 percent, Nasdaq finished the day up by 0.21percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices rose on Monday, putting them on track for their best month in four, helped by a weaker dollar and expectations that major global central banks are nearing a peak with interest rate hikes.
Spot gold gained 0.4% to $1,967.77 per ounce by 02:39 p.m. EDT (1839 GMT). Bullion is up 2.5% so far this month.U.S. gold futures settled 0.5% higher at $2,009.20.
Oil prices will stall this year as weak economic growth is expected to curb demand and offset the impact of OPEC+ production cuts on supply, a Reuters poll showed on Monday.
U.S. crude was seen averaging $77.20 a barrel in 2023, down from the previous month's $78.38 forecast, and $78.25 in 2024.
Oil prices rallied to a fresh three-month high on Monday and recorded their steepest monthly gains since January 2022, supported by signs of tightening global supply and rising demand through the rest of this year.
Brent crude futures rose $1.02, or 1.2%, to settle at $85.43 a barrel. The September Brent contract, which expired at settlement on Monday, rose 0.7% to close at $85.56 a barrel.U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures rallied $1.22, or 1.5%, to $81.80 a barrel.