Posted at 31 July 2023 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•German Jun Retail Sales (MoM) -0.8%, 0.2%forecast,0.4%previous
•German Jun Retail Sales (YoY) -1.6%,-2.7% forecast,-3.6% previous
•German Import Price Index (YoY)-11.4%,-10.7% forecast,-9.1% previous
•German Import Price Index (MoM)-1.6%,-0.7% forecast,-1.4% previous
•UK Jun BoE Consumer Credit 1.661B, 1.300B forecast,1.144B previous
•EU GDP (QoQ) (Q2) 0.3%,0.2% forecast,0.0% previous
•EU Jul CPI (YoY) 5.3%, 5.3% forecast, 5.5% previous
•EU GDP (YoY) (Q2) 0.6%,0.5% forecast,1.1% previous
•EU Jul HICP ex Energy & Food (YoY) 6.6%,6.7% forecast,6.8% previous
•EU Core CPI (YoY) 5.5%,5.4% forecast,5.5% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•12:55 French 12-Month BTF Auction 3.659% previous
•12:55 French 3-Month BTF Auction 3.613% previous
•12:55 French 6-Month BTF Auction 3.644% previous
•13:45 US Jul Chicago PMI 43.0 forecast,41.5 previous
•14:30 US Jul Dallas Fed Mfg Business Index -26.3 forecast,-23.2 previous
•15:30 US 3-Month Bill Auction 5.270% previous
•15:30 US 6-Month Bill Auction 5.270% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
No data ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro firmed on Monday after data showed economic growth nudged higher and inflation ticked lower. Data showed euro zone consumer prices grew by 5.3% this month versus 5.5% in June, extending a downtrend that started in autumn. Excluding energy and unprocessed food, prices increased by 6.6% after a 6.8% rise a month earlier. Another set showed the bloc returned to growth in the second quarter, with gross domestic product expanding by 0.3%, above expectations of 0.2% in a poll of economists. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1014(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1030(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0950(5DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0912( (38.2%fib).
GBP/USD: The British pound was heading for a second straight monthly gain and fourth positive month in five in July as stubborn inflation readings and robust growth data reinforced expectations that the Bank of England has more to do to bring inflation lower.Britain’s central bank is likely to raise its key interest rate for the 14th time in the current tightening cycle on Thursday, but traders and economists are split on the size of the hike. The pound was last little changed against the dollar at $1.2856, while the euro last bought 85.85 pence. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2869(5DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2912(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2771(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2637(50%fib).
USD/CHF: The dollar eased against the Swiss franc on Monday as investors awaited central bank meetings and a key employment report due later this week. Figures hotly anticipated this week include the U.S. ISM surveys on manufacturing and services, as well as the July payrolls report.Data on Friday showed that the annual U.S. inflation rate rose in June at its slowest pace in more than two years, with underlying price pressure receding, easing pressure on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to continue raising rates.With two more monthly CPI and payrolls reports before the Fed's next meeting in September, markets have plenty of time to change their mind. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.8728(Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.8774(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.8674(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.8660(9DMA).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar strengthened against Japanese yen on Monday after the Bank of Japan (BoJ) loosened its grip on interest rates, but it remained on track for its first monthly gain against the dollar since March. The Japanese currency went into a tailspin on Friday as traders tried to determine the implications of the BoJ's move to maintain ultra-low rates while making its bond yield curve control (YCC) policy more flexible and loosening its defence of a long-term rate cap. The BoJ's policy of keeping yields pinned down has weighed heavily on the Japanese currency for the past year, and fresh intervention on Monday showed it could continue to do so. Strong resistance can be seen at 142.72(23.6%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 143.00(Psychological level).On the downside, immediate support is seen 140.90(5DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 140.58(38.2%fib)
Equities Recap
European shares rose on Monday, pushing the German blue-chip index to a record high after data showed eurozone inflation eased in July but sticky core prices and upbeat growth data tempered optimism about the European Central Bank pausing rate hikes soon.
At (GMT 13:01` ),UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading up at 0.12 percent, Germany's Dax was up by 0.21 percent, France’s CAC was up by 0.52 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold pared losses and was poised for its best month in four on Monday as top central banks switch to a more cautious posture about further moves in their year-long round of global monetary tightening.
Spot gold was unchanged at $1,959.50 per ounce by 1132 GMT after slipping as much as 0.5% earlier. U.S. gold futures ticked 0.1% lower to $1,959.30.
Oil prices were set to post their biggest monthly gains in more than a year on Monday, on expectations that Saudi Arabia will extend voluntary output cuts into September and tighten global supply.
Brent crude futures rose 60 cents higher to $85.59 a barrel by 1159 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude climbed 73 cents to $81.31 a barrel.