Posted at 28 July 2023 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•French Consumer Spending (MoM) 0.9%,0.1% forecast,0.5% previous
• French GDP (QoQ) (Q2) 0.5%,0.1% forecast,0.2% previous
• French GDP (YoY) (Q2) 0.9%,0.9% previous
•Sweden Jun Unemployment Rate 9.2%,7.6% forecast,7.9% previous
•Sweden Jun GDP (QoQ) (Q2)-1.5%,-0.6% forecast,0.6% previous
•Sweden GDP (YoY) (Q2)-2.4%, 0.5% forecast,0.8% previous
•French Jul CPI (MoM) 0.0%,0.2% forecast,0.2% previous
•French Jul CPI (YoY) 4.3%,4.3% forecast,4.5% previous
•French Jun PPI (MoM) -1.1%,-2.8% forecast,-1.4% previous
•French HICP (MoM)0.0%,0.1% forecast,0.2% previous
•German Jul CPI (YoY) 6.8%, 6.9% forecast,6.6% previous
•EU Jul Consumer Inflation Expectation 4.8, 9.8 forecast,6.1 previous
•EU Jul Selling Price Expectations 3.4,0.6 forecast,4.4 previous
•German Jul HICP (MoM) 0.5%, 0.5% forecast,0.4% previous
• German Jul CPI (MoM) 0.3%,0.3% forecast,0.3% previous
• German Jul HICP (YoY) 6.5%, 6.6% forecast, 6.8% previous
• German Jul CPI (YoY) 6.2%,6.2% forecast,6.4% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
• 12:30 US Employment Benefits (QoQ) (Q2) 1.30% forecast,1.20% previous
• 12:30 US Employment Cost Index (QoQ) (Q2)1.1% forecast,1.2% previous
• 12:30 US Jun Personal Income (MoM) 0.5% forecast,0.4% previous
• 12:30 US Jun PCE Price index (YoY) 3.1% forecast,3.8% previous
• 12:30 US Jun Real Personal Consumption (MoM) 0.0% previous
• 12:30 US Jun PCE price index (MoM) -0.1% forecast,0.1% previous
• 12:30 US Jun Personal Spending (MoM) 0.4% forecast,0.1% previous
• 12:30 US Jun Core PCE Price Index (MoM) 0.2% forecast,0.3% previous
• 12:30 US Jun Core PCE Price Index (YoY) 4.2% forecast,4.6% previous
• 12:30 Canada GDP (MoM) 0.3% forecast,0.0% previous
•14:00 US Jul Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations 3.1% forecast,3.0% previous
•14:00 US Jul Michigan Inflation Expectations 3.4% forecast,3.3% previous
•14:00 US Jul Michigan Current Conditions 77.5 forecast,69.0 previous
•14:00 US Jul Michigan Consumer Sentiment 72.6 forecast,64.4 previous
•14:00 US Jul Michigan Consumer Expectations 69.4 forecast,61.5 previous
•15:00 Canada May Budget Balance -20.21B forecast,-44.41B previous
•15:00 Canada May Budget Balance (YoY) -19.17B forecast,-41.31B previous
•15:53 US Jun Dallas Fed PCE 4.30% forecast,3.20% previous
•17:00 U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count 530 previous
•17:00 U.S. Baker Hughes Total Rig Count 669 previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
•No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro strengthened against dollar on Friday as investors digested Thursdays ECB interest hike decision . The European Central Bank raised its deposit rate to a historic high on Thursday and kept its options open on whether more increases will be needed to bring down inflation against a worsening economic backdrop. Thursday’s hike, the ninth in a row, increases the rate that the ECB pays on banks' deposits from 3.50% to 3.75%, its highest level since 2000, before euro banknotes and coins had even been put into circulation. But the ECB removed a clear hint at further hikes from its policy statement, meaning a fresh increase at the ECB's next meeting in September should not be taken for granted. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0941(Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0963 (June 23rd high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0848(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0777( (61.8%fib).
GBP/USD: The pound edged higher on Friday but hovered near two-week lows after a string of central bank decisions this week reinforced expectations that the Bank of England will not deliver another jumbo rate hike next week. The BoE meets on Aug 3 and, right now, traders are leaning more towards a rate increase of 25 basis points, but still see a 25% chance of another half-point rise. Investors are still betting heavily on a stronger pound and hold their most valuable bullish bet on sterling since 2014. Sterling was last up 0.1% against the dollar at 41.2813 and up 0.2% against the euro at 85.58 pence. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2896(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2927(5DMA).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2765(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2669(50%fib).
USD/CHF: The dollar eased against the Swiss franc on Friday after data pointing to a resilient U.S. economy soured bets for a dovish tilt in U.S. monetary policy. The data contributed to an increase in expectations on how long U.S. interest rates will remain high. Data showed faster-than-expected U.S. gross domestic product growth in the second quarter.Focus was now on the June personal consumption expenditures (PCE) index, the Fed’s favoured inflation gauge, due at 1230 GMT. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.8738(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.8788 (July 12th high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.8638(5DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 0.8620 (23.6%fib).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar declined against the Japanese yen on Friday after the Bank of Japan made its yield curve control policy more flexible, which investors took as a step towards an eventual shift in its massive stimulus programme. The BOJ ended a two-day policy meeting on Friday with a decision to keep its short-term interest rate target at -0.1% and that for the 10-year government bond yield around 0%. Chopping and changing direction as traders digested the BOJ decision, the yen strengthened by as much as 1.2% to as much as 138.05 per dollar before weakening 1% on the day to 141.20. The Japanese currency was last at 138.97, up 0.4% against the dollar. Strong resistance can be seen at 139.73(14DMA) an upside break can trigger rise towards 140.26(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen 138.48(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 137.58(June 18th low)
Equities Recap
European shares retreated on Friday from multi-month highs scaled in the previous session as investors digested a mixed batch of earnings and as government bond yields climbed after the Bank of Japan tweaked its monetary policy.
At (GMT 12:06 ),UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading up at 0.05 percent, Germany's Dax was up by 0.12 percent, France’s CAC finished was down by 0.04 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold regained some ground on Friday as the dollar retreated, but still headed for its worst week in five after data pointing to a resilient U.S. economy soured bets for a dovish tilt in U.S. monetary policy.
Spot gold rose 0.6% to $1,956.69 per ounce by 1133 GMT, up from its lowest since July 12. U.S. gold futures gained 0.5% to $1,955.70.
Oil prices were steady on Friday, but on track for a fifth straight week of gains with investors optimistic healthy demand and supply cuts will keep prices buoyant.
Brent crude slipped 37 cents to $83.87 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude dipped 30 cents to $79.79 a barrel.