Posted at 27 July 2023 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•Finnish Jul Consumer Confidence -8.8 , -8.8 previous
•Sweden Jun Household Lending Growth (YoY) 1.1%,1.3%forecast,1.5% previous
•GfK German Aug Consumer Climate -24.4, -24.7 forecast, -25.4 previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
•12:30 US Wholesale Inventories (MoM) -0.3% forecast, 0.0% previous
•12:30 US Initial Jobless Claims 235K forecast, 228K previous
•12:30 US Continuing Jobless Claims 1,750K forecast, 1,754K previous
•12:30 US Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg. 242.10K forecast, 237.50K previous
•12:30 Canada May Average Weekly Earnings (YoY) 2.9 previous
•12:30 US Jun Goods Trade Balance -91.80B forecast, -91.13B previous
•12:30 US Jun Retail Inventories Ex Auto -0.1% previous
•12:30 US Jun Durables Excluding Defense (MoM) 0.0% forecast, 3.0% previous
•12:30 US Jun Goods Orders Non Defense Ex Air (MoM) -0.1% forecast, 0.7% previous
•12:30 US Jun Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) 0.0% forecast, 0.6% previous
•12:30 US Jun Durable Goods Orders (MoM) 1.0% forecast, 1.7% previous
•12:30 US GDP Price Index (QoQ) (Q2) 3.0% forecast, 4.1% previous
•12:30 US Core PCE Prices (Q2) 4.00% forecast, 4.90% previous
•12:30 US PCE Prices (Q2) 4.1% previous
•12:30 US GDP Sales (Q2) 1.4% forecast, 4.2% previous
•12:30 US Real Consumer Spending (Q2) 4.2% previous
•14:00 US Jun Pending Home Sales Index 76.5 previous
•14:00 US Jun Pending Home Sales (MoM) -0.5% forecast,-2.7% previous
•14:30 US Natural Gas Storage 19B forecast,41B previous
•14:30 US Jul KC Fed Composite Index -7 forecast,-12 previous
•15:00 US KC Fed Manufacturing Index -6 forecast,-10 previous
•15:30 US 8-Week Bill Auction 5.255% previous
•15:30 US 4-Week Bill Auction 5.255% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releeases (GMT)
•14:15 EU ECB President Lagarde Speaks
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: Euro edged higher on Thursday market's focus shifted across the Atlantic to the European Central Bank's impending rate announcement. The ECB is expected to raise interest rates for the ninth time in a row later on Thursday and keep the door open to further moves. While markets had fully priced in another rate hike from the ECB just a few weeks ago, investors are now split, with many expecting July's move to be the last following weak economic data. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1126(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1146 (Daily high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1086(5DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1034 (38.2%fib).
GBP/USD: Sterling rose against a weakening dollar on Thursday after the U.S. central bank raised the cost of borrowing again, while it fell against a strengthening euro ahead of the outcome of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) latest meeting.A week before an expected interest rate hike by the Bank of England (BoE), sterling was up 0.26% against the dollar $1.2973, after touching a one-week high in earlier trading . It was the Fed’s 11th rate increase in its last 12 meetings, and Chair Jerome Powell left the door open to another hike in September. But traders were unconvinced he would follow through, sending the U.S. dollar sliding. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2933 (23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3000(Psychological Level).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2936(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2893(5DMA).
USD/CHF: The dollar dipped against the Swiss franc on Thursday a day after the Federal Reserve delivered what some expect to be its last rate hike. The Fed on Wednesday raised interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point, as expected, marking its 11th rate increase in its last 12 meetings.While Fed Chair Jerome Powell left the door open to another hike in September, traders appeared unconvinced and the dollar extended Wednesday's modest post-meeting 0.3% drop. The dollar index , which measures the currency against six major peers, was last down 0.5% at 100.60. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.8683(5DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.8677(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.8563 (23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.8487(Lower BB).
USD/JPY: The dollar eased against yen on Thursday as traders digested fairly balanced comments from U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell after a widely expected interest rate hike. The Fed raised interest rates by a 25 basis points on Wednesday, highlighting that another 25 bps hike could be in September based on a wide range of data. However, Powell flagged they were no longer forecasting a U.S. recession. Later in the day, the United States is expected to report gross domestic product increased at a 1.8% annualised rate in the second quarter, down from 2% in Q1. Strong resistance can be seen at 141.09 (38.2%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 141.48 (July 21st high).On the downside, immediate support is seen 139.50(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 139.00(Psychological level )
Equities Recap
European shares rallied to nine-week highs on Thursday, driven by hopes the Federal Reserve was done with interest rate hikes and some upbeat earnings reports, while investors looked ahead to the European Central Bank's policy decision.
At (GMT 12:10` ),UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading was up at 0.24 percent, Germany's Dax was up by 1.19 percent, France’s CAC finished was up by 1.81 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold hovered near a one-week high on Thursday as the dollar slipped on renewed expectations that an end to the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cycle was on the horizon, with focus on the ECB’s impending decision.
Spot gold rose 0.2% to $1,975.36 per ounce by 0941 GMT, after earlier hitting its highest since July 20. U.S. gold futures were up 0.3% at $1,975.70.
Oil climbed by almost 1% on Thursday, recouping losses from the previous session, supported by supply tightness.
Brent crude advanced 65 cents, or 0.8%, to $83.57 a barrel by 1155 GMT while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose 74 cents, or 0.9%, to $79.52.