Posted at 26 July 2023 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•Swiss July ZEW Expectations -32.6,-31.1 forecast ,-30.8 previous
•EU Jun Loans to Non Financial Corporations 3.0%,3.4% forecast ,4.0% previous
•EU Jun M3 Money Supply (YoY) 0.6%,1.0% forecast ,1.4% previous
•EU Private Sector Loans (YoY) 1.7%, 1.8% forecast , 2.1% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
•14:00 US Jun New Home Sales (MoM) -0.7% forecast , 12.2% previous
•14:00 US Jun New Home Sales 725K forecast , 763K previous
•14:00 US Crude Oil Imports -1.937M forecast , -0.376M previous
•14:30 US Heating Oil Stockpiles 0.222M forecast , 0.223M previous
•14:30 US EIA Weekly Distillates Stocks -0.301M forecast ,0.014M previous
•14:30 US Gasoline Inventories -1.678M forecast ,-1.066M previous
•14:30 US Crude Oil Inventories -2.348M forecast ,-0.708M previous
•14:30 US Cushing Crude Oil Inventories -1.442M forecast , -2.891M previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
•18:00 US Fed Interest Rate Decision 5.50% forecast ,5.25% previous
•18:00US FOMC Statement
•18:30 US FOMC Press Conference
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: Euro edged higher on Wednesday ahead of a rate decision by the European Central Bank. The European Central Bank has raised interest rates by 4 percentage points in the past year and another hike on Thursday is essentially a done deal as inflation remains far too hike and could take until 2025 to fall back to the 2% target. But recent economic data from PMI figures and sentiment indicators to a key lending survey have surprised on the downside, suggesting that the bloc continues to skirt recession, which should naturally cool price pressures. The weak data is intensifying debate over just how much more the ECB needs to do and some economists argue that Thursday's rate hike will be the last. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1092(5DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.11221 (23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1031(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0952 (50%fib).
GBP/USD: The pound edged up against the dollar on Wednesday as investor focus shifted to the U.S. Federal Reserve, which is widely expected to raise interest rates by 25 basis points later in the day. Expectations for what the Bank of England signals when it meets on Aug. 3 have shifted this month. Traders expect UK rates to rise to as much as 5.84% by next March, from 5.0% right now, but this is well below a peak of around 6.4% by May just two weeks ago.Evidence that UK inflation is finally starting to slow after having lingered in double digits for months, as well as a softening in business activity and a cooling in the job market has taken some of the pressure off the BoE to keep raising interest rates . Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2928 (23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2963(July 20th high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2870(5DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2805(38.2%fib).
USD/CHF: The dollar dipped against the Swiss franc on Wednesday as investors awaited outcome of a U.S. Federal Reserve policy meeting later in the day. The major driver for the currency market on Wednesday was the run-up to the Fed's decision on monetary policy later on. Markets are betting on a 25-basis-point hike from the Fed on Wednesday, but they are split on the odds of another later in the year. If the Fed's language is hawkish it could boost the dollar and leave emerging market currencies like the rand exposed. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.8657 (5DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.8727(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.8609 (23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.8568(July 20th low).
USD/JPY: The dollar eased against yen on Wednesday as traders focused on key central bank meetings later this week for further direction. The BoJ sets policy on Friday, and speculation about a hawkish tweak to its yield curve control policy, which had soared earlier in the month, has receded over recent days. The U.S. dollar index , which measures the currency against six major peers, edged 0.2% lower to 101.09, but was close to a two week high touched on Tuesday. The dollar was down 0.44% at 140.35 yen , following a rebound from a multi-week low of 137.245 mid-month. Strong resistance can be seen at 140.92 (5DMA) an upside break can trigger rise towards 142.09(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen 140.35(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 139.07(38.2%fib )
Equities Recap
European shares are set to snap a six-day winning run on Wednesday, hurt by underwhelming results from French luxury goods giant LVMH as well as nerves ahead of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision later in the day.
At (GMT 12:01` ),UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading down at 0.58 percent, Germany's Dax was down by 0.90 percent, France’s CAC finished was down by 1.85 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices climbed on Wednesday due to some safe-haven demand before the U.S. Federal Reserve delivers a widely expected rate hike later in the day, as traders see the fight to tame inflation nearing its endgame.
Spot gold rose 0.4% to $1,972.22 per ounce by 1145 GMT, while U.S. gold futures gained 0.5% to $1,973.60.
Oil prices slipped on Wednesday, with investors cautious ahead of an expected Federal Reserve rate hike later in the day and a possible increase in U.S. crude supplies.
Brent crude futures were down 88 cents to $82.76 a barrel by 1149 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude was at $78.76, down 87 cents. Both hit three-month highs on Tuesday.