Posted at 26 July 2023 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•Canada Manufacturing Sales (MoM) -2.1%,1.2% previous
•US Redbook (YoY) -0.4%,-0.2% previous
•US May House Price Index (MoM) 0.7%,0.2% forecast,0.7% previous
•US May House Price Index 404.1,404.6 forecast,401.2 previous
•US May House Price Index (YoY) 2.8%, 2.6% forecast, 3.1% previous
•US S&P/CS HPI Composite - 20 n.s.a. (YoY) -1.7%, -2.2% forecast,-1.7% previous
•US May S&P/CS HPI Composite - 20 n.s.a. (MoM) 1.5%,1.2% forecast,1.7% previous
•US Jul Belgium NBB Business Climate-14.8, -10.0 forecast,-12.1 previous
•US Jul Richmond Services Index -2,9 forecast,-3 previous
•US Jul Richmond Manufacturing Index -9,-10 forecast,-7 previous
•US Jul CB Consumer Confidence 117.0, 111.8 forecast,109.7 previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•01:30 Australia CPI (QoQ) (Q2) 1.0% forecast,1.4% previous
•01:30 Australia CPI Index Number (Q2) 130.80 previous
•01:30 Australia Weighted mean CPI (QoQ) (Q2) 1.1% forecast, 1.2% previous
•01:30 Australia Trimmed Mean CPI (YoY) (Q2) 5.9% forecast, 6.6% previous
•01:30 Australia Trimmed Mean CPI (QoQ) (Q2) 1.1% forecast, 1.2% previous
•05:00 Japan Coincident Indicator (MoM) -0.4% forecast, 0.1% previous
•05:00 Japan Leading Index 109.5 previous
•05:00 Japan Leading Index (MoM) 1.4% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
•No Data Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: Euro slips further on gloomy data as a worsening downturn in euro zone business muddied the bloc's rate outlook against a still-hawkish European Central Bank (ECB). Monday's Purchasing Manager Indexes came in below expectations for the euro zone as a whole, and on Tuesday an ECB survey showed demand for loans in the euro zone hitting a record low in the second quarter, and separate data showed deterioration of business confidence in Germany this month. Markets have plenty more to watch this week as the Federal Reserve concludes a rate-setting meeting on Wednesday followed by the European Central Bank (ECB) a day later and the Bank of Japan on Friday .Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1082(5DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1117 (23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1031(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0952 (50%fib).
GBP/USD: Sterling traded higher against the U.S. dollar on Tuesday, staging a small rebound after a seven-day losing streak, but stayed close to a two-week low as traders keep their attention on Britain's floundering economy. Further compounding the downward revision of interest rate expectations is the UK's slowing economy, with a survey on Monday showing Britain's private sector growing at its slowest pace in six months in July. Traders are predicting a 60% chance of a 25 bps hike from the BoE at its next meeting on August 3 , and a 40% chance of a larger 50 bps hike.At 1023 GMT, the pound was 0.16% up against the dollar at $1.28460 , while it ticked 0.32% higher versus the euro to 86 pence . Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2927 (23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2936(5DMA).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2858(9DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2794(38.2%fib).
USD/CAD: The Canadian dollar was little changed against its U.S. counterpart on Tuesday as higher oil prices offset preliminary domestic data showing a drop in factory sales, while investors awaited a Federal Reserve interest rate decision. With the Fed steaming toward another interest rate hike on Wednesday, policymakers face a choice over how much weight to put on recent economic data that has made hoped-for outcomes on inflation and unemployment seem more likely while also posing a risk the economy is too strong to keep prices in line.The Bank of Canada has also been hiking rates, concerned about the persistence of underlying inflation. The loonie was nearly unchanged at 1.3172 to the greenback. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1396 (5DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3217 (38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3150 (23.6% fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3108(Lower BB).
USD/JPY: The dollar eased against yen on Tuesday as investors awaited key central bank meetings this week will provide guidance on the outlook for monetary policy. Markets have plenty more to watch as the Fed concludes a rate-setting meeting on Wednesday, followed by the European Central Bank (ECB) a day later and the Bank of Japan on Friday. Markets anticipate 25 basis-point rate hikes from both the Fed and the European Central Bank, but investors will await clues on the outlook from policymakers, especially from Fed Chair Jerome Powell. The Japanese yen strengthened 0.38% versus the greenback at 140.92 per dollar. Strong resistance can be seen at 141.87 (23.6%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 142.98(Jul 10th high).On the downside, immediate support is seen 140.41(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 140.12(5DMA )
Equities Recap
European shares gained on Tuesday with miners logging their best day in over eight months after China pledged more support for its slowing economy and as Unilever advanced after posting upbeat quarterly sales.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed up by 0.13 percent, Germany's Dax ended up by 0.13 percent, France’s CAC finished the day down by 0.16 percent.
The tech-heavy Nasdaq closed higher on Tuesday, leading gains on Wall Street amid investor excitement about artificial intelligence before earnings reports from megacap technology companies Alphabet and Microsoft after the bell..
Dow Jones closed up by 0.08% percent, S&P 500 closed up by 0.28 % percent, Nasdaq settled up by 0.61% percent.
Treasuries Recap
U.S. Treasury yields advanced on Tuesday, as a stable economy and generally positive data overall have reduced the chances of recession and raised the possibility of two more interest rate hikes this year.
The yield on 10-year Treasury notes was up 4.3 bps at 3.90%.U.S 30-year bond yields inched up 2.5 bps to 3.945%.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices rose on Tuesday on a steady dollar and expectations the U.S. Federal Reserve will likely end its monetary tightening cycle after a widely expected rate hike this week.
Spot gold was up 0.4% at $1,962.30 per ounce by 2:03 p.m. EDT (1803 GMT), while U.S. gold futures settled 0.1% higher at $1,963.70.
Oil prices rose to three-month highs on Tuesday, as signs of tighter supplies and pledges by Chinese authorities to shore up the world's second-biggest economy lifted sentiment.
Brent futures settled up 90 cents at $83.64 a barrel, after hitting $83.87 earlier, the highest since April 19.
U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose 89 cents to $79.63. The contract earlier rose to $79.90 a barrel, also the highest since April 19.