Posted at 25 July 2023 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•German Jul Current Assessment 91.3, 93.0 forecast,93.7 previous
•German Jul Ifo Business Climate Index 87.3,88.0 forecast,88.5 previous
•German Jul Business Expectations 83.5 ,83.4 forecast,83.6 previous
•UK Jul CBI Industrial Trends Orders -9, -17 forecast,-15 previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•12:30 Canada Manufacturing Sales (MoM)1.2% previous
•12:55 US Redbook (YoY)-0.2% previous
•13:00 US May House Price Index (MoM) 0.2% forecast,0.7% previous
•13:00 US May S&P/CS HPI Composite - 20 s.a. (MoM) 1.5% forecast,0.9% previous
•13:00 US May House Price Index 404.6 forecast,401.2 previous
•13:00 US May House Price Index (YoY) 2.6% forecast, 3.1% previous
•13:00 US S&P/CS HPI Composite - 20 n.s.a. (YoY) -2.2% forecast,-1.7% previous
•13:00 US May S&P/CS HPI Composite - 20 n.s.a. (MoM) 1.2% forecast,1.7% previous
•13:00 US Jul Belgium NBB Business Climate -10.0 forecast,-12.1 previous
•14:00 US Jul Richmond Services Index 9 forecast,-3 previous
•14:00 US Jul Richmond Manufacturing Index -10 forecast,-7 previous
•14:00 US Jul CB Consumer Confidence 111.8 forecast,109.7 previous
•14:00 US Jul Richmond Manufacturing Shipments -5 previous
•14:00 US 5-Year Note Auction 4.019% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
•No Data Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: Euro slips further on gloomy data as a worsening downturn in euro zone business muddied the bloc's rate outlook against a still-hawkish European Central Bank (ECB). Monday's Purchasing Manager Indexes came in below expectations for the euro zone as a whole, and on Tuesday an ECB survey showed demand for loans in the euro zone hitting a record low in the second quarter, and separate data showed deterioration of business confidence in Germany this month. Markets have plenty more to watch this week as the Federal Reserve concludes a rate-setting meeting on Wednesday followed by the European Central Bank (ECB) a day later and the Bank of Japan on Friday .Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1092(5DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.11221 (23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1031(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0952 (50%fib).
GBP/USD: Sterling traded higher against the U.S. dollar on Tuesday, staging a small rebound after a seven-day losing streak, but stayed close to a two-week low as traders keep their attention on Britain's floundering economy. Further compounding the downward revision of interest rate expectations is the UK's slowing economy, with a survey on Monday showing Britain's private sector growing at its slowest pace in six months in July. Traders are predicting a 60% chance of a 25 bps hike from the BoE at its next meeting on August 3 , and a 40% chance of a larger 50 bps hike.At 1023 GMT, the pound was 0.16% up against the dollar at $1.28460 , while it ticked 0.32% higher versus the euro to 86 pence . Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2861 (5DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2924(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2803(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2695(50%fib).
USD/CHF: The dollar struggled for direction against the Swiss franc on Tuesday as traders braced for a widely anticipated rate hike along with monetary policy clues from the U.S. Federal Reserve over the next two days. Markets wil look towards what U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell says on Wednesday and European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde on Thursday about the monetary policy outlook for their September meetings. A closely-watched purchasing managers’ survey on Monday showed that U.S. business activity slowed, while that of Europe shrunk more than expected in July, implying that both central banks could be close to the end of their rate-hike cycles. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.8700 (Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.8755(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.8660(5DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 0.8629 (23.6%fib).
USD/JPY: The dollar eased against yen on Tuesday as traders focused on key central bank meetings later this week for further direction. The Japanese yen edged higher against the dollar, which fell 0.1% to 141.42. Investors seem to be in two minds over whether the Bank of Japan, which meets on Friday, might alter its policy of keeping borrowing rates near zero. BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda has said the central bank is focusing on whether recent inflation and wage growth will be sustained next year, and backed more by domestic demand, in deciding whether to tweak yield curve control. Strong resistance can be seen at 141.02 (23.6%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 142.98(Jul 10th high).On the downside, immediate support is seen 140.87(5DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 140.42(38.2%fib )
Equities Recap
European shares edged higher on Tuesday with miners and luxury stocks in the lead after China pledged more support for its slowing economy, but mixed earnings reports limited further upside in markets.
At (GMT 12:30 ),UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading up at 0.18 percent, Germany's Dax was up by 0.07 percent, France’s CAC was up by 0.09 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold pared some gains on Tuesday as the dollar firmed, while traders positioned for key central bank decisions that could signal a halt to further interest rate hikes.
Spot gold was up 0.1% to $1,956.77 per ounce by 1148 GMT, while U.S. gold futures edged down 0.2% to $1,958.20.
Oil prices were steady on Tuesday, hovering near three-month highs as signs of tighter supplies and pledges by Chinese authorities to shore up the world's second-biggest economy lifted sentiment, while weaker Western economic data weighed.
Brent futures were unchanged at $82.74 a barrel by 1207 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude was up 1 cent, or 0.01%, at $78.75.